Moral victories v. actual victories
by pdb on May 16, 2011 3:28 PM PDT
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PrintI'm no statistician, but I do know a bit about the concept of sample size. The Timbers have now played five games on the road, and have won exactly none of them. They have played well in their last couple games, and they have picked up a couple points on the road, but they haven't been able to get over that road-win hump - am I the only one that's worried about this?
I want the Timbers to be a complete success, and until they get the can't-win-on-the-road monkey off their back, they won't be. Am I worried too soon about this? I know this is the first season, and I have seen that the Timbers have played far better in week 8 than they did in week 2, but still - unless that whole "played far better" thing results in a road win soon, I am going to be very disappointed in this team.
I see by the schedule that the next three road games are Chivas, Dallas, and Chicago - the Dallas and Chicago games will be nice yardsticks for the Timbers, so we can measure their progression against teams they barely beat early in the season. And I'm nervous about how the Timbers will play.
Every road game is followed by a slew of stories about the traveling TA support, how awesome the road trips are for the traveling supporters and how much fun they have regardless of result. And then there's the national press about the atmosphere both at JWP and away from home. Don't get me wrong - I'm a card-carrying 107ist, I love the TA, I love the home support, but I really and truly don't want the Timbers to be a national curiosity/novelty that is mostly famous for their fan base - I want them to be a perpetual playoff-caliber team that other teams are afraid to face, regardless of venue. And as of now, I'm not seeing that from the Timbers.
I will say that apart from the first 10 or so minutes of the second half, Portland played a really solid game Saturday - but those 10 minute lapses that cost two points need to be eliminated, and while the defense has been nice and solid at JWP in the last few games, I'm not seeing that on the road as of yet.
What do you think the Timbers need to do better on the road than they do at home?
Alright guys, I don't believe I have to say this but, just in case, please do not submit anything racist, homophobic, sexist or otherwise not appropriate for even the younger Timbers fans.
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Since we went with Hall, Brunner, Wallace and Futty
the defense has looked an awful lot better, and those terrifying moments have decreased quite a bit. Saturday was the first time they had played together on the road. I don’t think you’re off base, but I’ll be worried if two or three more from the stretch you mentioned don’t go well.
wheniroot.wordpress.com
volatilelyle.com
Worried or encouraged?
I am encouraged. Why? Well, what are we 9 games into this season? This is a team that has been playing together now for three months, so we are still finding our chemistry and cohesion as a unit. Have we digressed or progressed? I would say the latter. Outside of that lashing away to the Galaxy, I think we have been making progress as the weeks go by.
The back four has looked much better now with a run of games playing together. Our midfield is starting to gel as well with Kalif and Cap Jack doing the heavy lifting, Chara figuring it all out and Nagbe getting back to form and growing into his role as a starting 11 MLS player (with Zizzo as the designated super sub role). Outside of free kicks, we haven’t been able to provide any real quality service to the forwards and if that piece of the puzzle is discovered we could really turn the corner.
I can see the passion and devotion in between the lines of your post, but give the boys some time and remember this is an expansion team learning how to play with each other. We nicked a point away in the most hostile environment we will face this year and looked their equal all said and done (given they didn’t have their first choice squad).
RCTID
by Fanstand314 on May 16, 2011 5:03 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm not interested in passion or devotion for the purposes of this post though
“Give the boys some time” is great – I’m trying to decide how much time to give them, though. That’s the point of the post. When does “give the boys some time” start giving way to “why can’t they win on the road”?
Outside of free kicks, we haven’t been able to provide any real quality service to the forwards
I think this is a problem both at home and on the road, actually – Portland are great at set pieces, but scoring from open play so far has been a challenge for them. I would love to see this improved.
If you look back at the schedule,
as to who we’ve played on the road. Its Colorado, Toronto, New England, LA and Seattle. Two could have been expected, as Colorado is one of the best in the league, and LA is arguably THE best in the league. Two we got results, New England and Seattle. And one we just dropped, although it was essentially our second game ever. So I’m not really worried, and all I’m seeing (apart from the LA game) is improvement. Toronto is really, I think, the only one we should have gotten a result when we didn’t, and as far as I heard (I couldn’t see the game) we dominated. If anything I’m encouraged.
Mike Rice: "Camby nearly rejected that with his Armpit!"
Mike Barrett: "Now that would be a fragrant foul."
Yup yup.
I’m not concerned at all. I guerentee that we will win a road game, though we don’t really need to. Check it:
Out of 27 possible points we’ve secured 14.
We’re averaging over 1.5 points per game.
All of this while playing 4 at home and 5 on the road—during out “finding ourselves” phase.
Except for Colorado (2010 MLS Cup winner) and Los Angeles (2010 Supporters Shield winner), we’ve even looked good in those loses.
The back end of the schedule is loaded with road games, meaning right when we’re clicking we’ll be hitting the road. Perfect.
What? Me worry?
We're getting there.
Our service to the Forwards HAS to get better, Perlaza and Cooper seem to be working hard enough, they just haven’t got the ball in good enough positions. We seem to be that mystical “one pass away” from some really good looks. If / When the team improves on that, we become a much bigger threat.
And the Defense gets caught out of position too often, I know Hall is learning on the job, but the Flounder goal was caused by him being way off his man. And as much as Coach doesn’t like the term ‘Expansion Team’ that is what we are, for the most part. Not completely from scratch, but pretty darn close.
I feel that the team is getting there, but, yeah, if they don’t sneak out a victory on the road before the All-Star break, the chance of a Playoff spot grows slimmer. Not to mention the possible mind games that can play on them.
Still early, no need to worry, yet. If we’re having the “Still can’t win on the road” discussion in late July, then we can look for the ‘panic’ button.
As a fan of an EPL team who has flamed out of the League in an amazing fashion, like the Hindenburg, no worries here, it’s not like we can be dropped back to D2…
…..Fortune’s always hiding, I’ve looked everywhere…
That's my whole thing
I’m less worried about missing the playoffs – hell, MLS is like the NHL, you almost have to be dead to miss the MLS playoffs – than I am about the mental barrier that comes from an extended run of not-winning on the road.
It's up to the team now,
We watch them get better, they know they are getting better. I think the Flounder match gained them even more confidence. Thats the most hostile environment they will face on the road.
It’s those mental lapses, that are getting less frequent with every game, that are costing the team. And that is somthing that they either fix, or the season will be a struggle. As much as the fan base can talk about it, we can’t do anything about it. Thats why the Coaching staff gets paid the big bucks.
We (the fans) are like anxious parents, waiting for our beautiful baby to take it’s first steps away from home. We want to shove road wins into the faces of people who don’t think our baby is the cutest, most precious thing in the world.
Not worried yet
first three weeks on the road were tough then the Galaxy and then Seattle. I would say not a time for alarm bells. Now if we come out of the next 3 with no win, maybe I start to wonder. We controlled that Seattle game except for about 10 minutes coming out for the second half, Cooper was off his game a bit and we still drew so that is a good thing.
Now if we can’t get Chivas, FC Dllas or Chicago I will worry.
The one thing I wonder about is we do play our home matches on a smaller field, is there something wrong with our spacing? I am not ready to make that judgement because 2 of our 3 losses were the first two weeks meaning we had not yet played a match on our pitch, when our roster was injury depleted and we were still trying to figure out how to play together.
"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)
I understand what you are saying
But look check this out: (Win-Loss-Draw)
Club Home Away
New York Red Bulls 3-1-1 1-1-2
Philadelphia Union 3-0-2 1-3-0
Houston Dynamo 3-2-0 0-1-4
Columbus Crew 3-0-2 0-2-2
New England Revolution 3-1-2 0-2-2
D.C. United 2-1-3 1-3-0
Toronto FC 2-1-4 0-3-1
Chicago Fire 1-2-2 0-2-3
Sporting Kansas City 0-0-0 1-5-1
LA Galaxy 3-0-2 2-2-3
FC Dallas 4-1-1 1-2-1
Real Salt Lake 3-0-1 2-1-0
Colorado Rapids 2-1-1 2-2-2
Seattle Sounders FC 2-1-2 1-2-3
Portland Timbers 4-0-0 0-3-2
Chivas USA 1-2-1 2-1-2
San Jose Earthquakes 1-2-2 1-2-1
Vancouver Whitecaps 1-1-4 0-4-1
7 MLS teams have yet to win on the road and only 4 teams have more than 1 win. This tells me that it is quite hard to win on the road and the 4 road games we have played the home team has a record of 10-3-9 at home. We played them early and before we settled on our current starting line-up. If we don’t win a road game after 8 games on the road then I will agree with you.
Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.
I hate the format of that
Sorry it was all formatted and then I hit post…..
Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.
no way to tab
Is there is no way to do a tab with this message board engine?
Scoreboards, not billboards.
Regular season, not pre-season.
No
And I am too lazy to write my own HTML code for the proper formatting.
Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.
there are some quick table generators on the web to get html
I have used them for other SBNation posts myself. not sure if it would work in the comments section though
"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)
No worries
This is coming a from a Sounders fan (that still likes watching Timbers when he can). I do not think you have anything to worry about. Looking at a point per game, you guys are in the playoffs so you already are a playoff caliber team and from here things are only going to get better.
Sure you may have a slump or two later in the season, but overall you have a new team that one can already see is playing better and more cohesively as a team now then they were 2 months ago. In addition you still have quite a few players to add to your roster and I am sure one or two of them will be starting XI caliper players.
Lastly your away schedule has not been the easiest. CR are MLS champs and have high altitude, Galaxy are the galaxy, Seattle (like em or not) are a decent team with a more hostile crowd to the timbers than probably any other team, Phili were the 2nd best in the east.
So with an easier record, more new good players coming on board come transfer window time probably, and just more time together I think things will only get better for Portland.
Scoreboards, not billboards.
Regular season, not pre-season.
I knew you weren't TOTALLY evil...
This is coming a from a Sounders fan (that still likes watching Timbers when he can).
Blazers win!
Take a deep breath
We are on a bit of a roll. We’ve been playing the better teams in the league and playing them well. The only two teams to beat us badly on the road are undeniably two of the better teams in the league. We just played Seattle tough, in Seattle. Do you remember that game (it was just 2 days ago)? Did we win? No. Did we have a chance to win? Yes. The wins will come. We need to have patience, our team is new together, they are learning to play together and are making progress each week. I think real Timbers supporters are going to demonstrate patience and unwavering support. Cut the team some slack and appreciate all that they have accomplished. Admit it, you didn’t really imagine we would have been this successful after only 9 games back before the season did you?
by AlanMoore on May 16, 2011 9:24 PM PDT reply actions
I think I'm offended that you don't think I'm a "real Timbers supporter"
I have had season tickets for three years. Not as long as many, but longer than a lot.
Anyway, my point wasn’t that I all of a sudden dislike the Timbers – life is not a binary thing. It’s not either love ‘em or hate ’em. I can love the Timbers while still casting a critical eye on their flaws, and that’s what I was attempting to do with this post.
We just played Seattle tough, in Seattle. Do you remember that game (it was just 2 days ago)?
Please don’t take that tone with me. I was at the game.
My point, and my question, was when is it time to start thinking that “playing tough” isn’t enough? When is it time to wonder what it will take to actually turn “playing tough” into three earned points, instead of two dropped points like Saturday night’s?
And yes, I know enough to know that I shouldn’t expect Portland, or any team, to be better on the road than at home. It’s just that up until the last couple games, the difference has been very stark.
Point taken but........
Sorry for the unintended slight…. but I think everyone should just take a deep breath. We’re 9 games into our first MLS season with about 2/3 new players and a new coach who need time to jell together. This is a team that is growing and having players who are finding new levels of accomplishment (e.g. Danso – did anyone really expect he would be as amazingly solid as he has been). I agree we should keep a bit of a critical eye alive, but I think we stand a chance of going over the edge and becoming hyper critical. Spencer is finding the right groove between pushing the team to improve and having patience with their growth process. We should emulate our coach a bit. Take a deep breath, she’ll be right.
Good job on out-chanting the Flounders fans by the way, pretty amazing that over and over again you could hear the TA chants on the broadcast.
by AlanMoore on May 16, 2011 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions
in his first head coaching gig as well
"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)
Food for thought, puts how well the Timbers are playing at home in perspective.
If we win against Columbus for a 5th straight home win we earn a unique status.
After the Philly win the MLS recap noted that only three expansion teams have won their first four home games: LAG 1996, Dallas 1996, PTFC 2011. I decided to look into this.
http://www.portlandtimbers.com/news/2011/05/quotes-notes-timbers-1-union-0
First, I realized that they had forced shootouts if the game ended tied. So, did both LA and Dallas really get four wins or shootout wins?
LA Galaxy
LAG had 4 wins during the run of play. No shootouts. In fact, they had a streak of five games before the 6th went to a shootout. If you count the shootout win it is a 7 home win streak in their inaugural season.
So, 5 straight wins for LA at home from their inaugural game in my book.
Dallas Burn
Dallas [as the Burn] had exactly 4 home wins as their streak, but the first and fourth were shootout wins.
0 straight home wins from the inaugural game in my book.
Portland Timbers
So, only one more to join the 1996 LA Galaxy for five straight wins from the inaugural home game. And to do so in this era of MLS play would be one of the greatest feats for any expansion team playing at home during their first season.
The Rest of the MLS Field
Longest home win streak of any MLS expansion team regardless if it started at the first game:
1996*
LAG 7
DCU 6
NER 6
CLB 5
NY 5
DAL 4
KCW 4
SJ 4
TBM 4
COL 3
1998*
CHI 8
MIA 6
2005
CUSA 2
RSL 2
2006
HOU 2
2007
TOR 2
2009
- 2
2010
PHI 1
*Home winning streaks include shootout wins.
Sources
http://www.lagalaxy.com/content/results-1996
http://3rddegree.4t.com/1996/96result.htm
http://www.mlssoccer.com/content/1996-full-season-stats
[Plus all other years up to 2009]
Wikipedia for Flounders and Union.
Conclusion
Best expansion team at home since 1998 at this moment.
Now I didn’t answer you question, but if we can do this at home when will it gel on the road?
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
That, actually, WAS my question
if we can do this at home when will it gel on the road?
Bingo! That’s what I’m trying to work through here.
I guess all I said here was, "perspective"
Results at home prove that wins can happen and we’re the only ones since 1998 [and different rules] to get more than 2 in a row!
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
I'll note that statistically there is little advantage to playing away from home
according to a recent SI article.
My bro mentioned the article here.
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
I agree with you completely, amazing feat for an inaugural season in the modernMLS
but my question still centers in on our smaller turf field. I wish there was an easy place to get pitch dimensions of all the fields around MLS. I Know the Galaxies is near max fifa sized while ours is absolute minimum fifa requirements. That could be a factor in our ability to win at home, but since I can not look that up easily (I can’t find Dick sporting goods park, or the Revs field dimensions) I can’t run the numbers…
I do beleive we win at least one of our next 3 road games.
"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)
Dimension and surface
I think size and surface are definitely part of it. They look to be getting better with the size differences and is it significant that they did okay on Qwest’s turf ?…albeit familiarly wet turf (does that make them undefeated on turf?…haven’t studied field composition in MLS). I think the transition from grass to turf is more challenging than the other way around (and for some visiting teams that’s further compounded by the smaller dimensions at HoP). Any way you look at it they are improving on the road…I think the next milestone is an away clean sheet (hopefully equating to a win). If they get 30-ish points at home which, on current form, seems feasible, then they only need 12-15 on the road for a likely playoff spot…no reason to think those aren’t attainable targets based on how things are going. For a 1st season that would be an exceptional achievement (by league standards)….and as long as they have the away form in better shape by season’s end…anything can happen. Agreed that “getting the business done” in at least one of the next 3 road games would be a huge, positive step.
by billyraybatesmotel on May 17, 2011 7:17 AM PDT up reply actions
sea & port
are the only two without natural grass.
Seattle is installing grass for thier Man U. game and will be able to use the temporary grass for their MLS game the week before and after. They are also officially exploring the option of using grass next season. Whether they go grass or not, the artificial turf they are using this year is being replaced sometime before the next MLS season.
Should they chose artificial turf, I rememer reading they will go with a newer generation of it that is technologically better than what they have which is about 3 years old. My understanding is it would be the same stuff Jeldwen has now. Essentially Seattle has the worse surface in the league right now.
But from a dimensions perspective I think PDX will have one of the narrowest now that KC has a new field. SJ i think might give you a run for your money though. :)
Scoreboards, not billboards.
Regular season, not pre-season.
I was stunned at how bad the surface was at Qwesst
I didn’t think it was any different than the stuff at JWP but it’s pretty horrible.
It's the same surface, but with a whole lot more abuse heaped onto it.
It’s a major problem/
by Aaron Campeau on May 17, 2011 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Fine by me.
It’d make parking in my neighborhood easier on Sundays.
by Aaron Campeau on May 17, 2011 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Wouldn't stop the huskies
this fall who will also be playing there.
Scoreboards, not billboards.
Regular season, not pre-season.
Qwest is missing a new "E-layer"
So, no, not exactly the same installation.
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
E
=electronic? We should install an I-Field.
Scoreboards, not billboards.
Regular season, not pre-season.
You'll find it here.
JELD-WEN Field’s FieldTurf surface was installed in March on top of an ‘e-layer,’ which serves as a permanent, elastic shock pad that both reduces the risk of player injury and enhances the quality of game play on the FieldTurf. The field has been designed specifically to mirror elite levels of playing characteristics for soccer.
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
I'm not concerned, you;ve seen signs of improvement already.
You can tell they’re getting better, it’s a new squad, so it takes time to build some chemistry and when you don’t have the continuity that other clubs have it’s really difficult to get that win especially without the energy of the crowd behind them.
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