Tale of the Tape: Predicting the final standings mid season

by Ryan Gates on Jul 11, 2011 11:48 PM PDT

Many of you remember the points per game analysis I did during the quarter mark of the season. At that point the Portland Timbers had just won their 5th straight home game and were riding a huge momentum wave. Well they now are at the lowest of lows just over midway through the season.

Once again the calculations are really easy and I will just quote myself from the previous post:

So to get the calculations I am going to share with you I did some simple spreadsheet math. First I calculated t he points per game based on total game played and points. I did this by dividing the points by the total games played. Then I took that number and multiplied by the remaining number of games each team had. Once I found out how many points, given their form over the first quarter of the season, they would earn and added it to the points they currently have.

So find out what the final standings are going to look like after the jump:

Alright so since the Timbers and us fans only really care about the Eastern Conference (I think it should be called the leastern after seeing these numbers) because of the new play-off format lets get that conference over and done with:

Eastern Conference:

Here are the current standings:

#	Club	PTS	GP	Home	Home Pts	Away	Away Pts
1	New York Red Bulls	28	20	10	13	10	15
2	Philadelphia Union	28	18	9	19	9	9
3	Columbus Crew	27	18	9	18	9	9
4	Houston Dynamo	23	19	10	17	9	6
5	Sporting Kansas City	22	18	5	9	13	13
6	D.C. United	22	17	9	11	8	11
7	Chicago Fire	18	19	8	9	11	9
8	Toronto FC	18	21	11	4	10	14
9	New England	16	18	9	3	9	13

Now applying the calculations this is what I get:

Club	PPG	Projected	PPG home	Projected	PPG Away	Projected	PPG Total
New York Red Bulls	1.4	47.6	1.3	22	1.5	25.5	48
Philadelphia Union	1.555556	52.88889	2.111111	36	1	17	53
Columbus Crew	1.5	51	2	34	1	17	51
Houston Dynamo	1.210526	41.15789	1.7	29	0.666667	11.33333	40
Sporting Kansas City	1.222222	41.55556	1.8	31	1	17	48
D.C. United	1.294118	44	1.222222	21	1.375	23.375	44
Chicago Fire	0.947368	32.21053	1.125	19	0.818182	13.90909	33
Toronto FC	0.857143	29.14286	0.363636	6	1.4	23.8	30
New England	0.888889	30.22222	0.333333	6	1.444444	24.55556	30

If you remember the last time I ran these numbers there were sometimes some glaring differences between the two total points calculations. This time those calculations are almost exact in almost all cases. Interestingly enough it looks like the 3 teams that will be guaranteed the play-offs will be the Union, Columbus and depending on tiebreakers New York or the Wiz.

Western Conference:

Here are the current standings:

#	Club	PTS	GP	Home	Home Pts	Away	Away Pts
1	LA Galaxy	39	21	10	20	11	19
2	Seattle Sounders FC	35	21	10	18	11	17
3	FC Dallas	34	19	11	23	8	11
4	Real Salt Lake	30	17	10	21	7	9
5	Colorado Rapids	27	20	10	14	10	13
6	Chivas USA	22	19	10	12	9	10
7	San Jose Earthquakes	22	18	10	14	8	8
8	Portland Timbers	18	17	10	16	7	2
9	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	14	20	9	11	11	3

And now for the calculations:

Club	PPG	Projected	PPG home	Projected	PPG Away	Projected	PPG Total
LA Galaxy	1.857143	63.14286	2	34	1.727273	29.36364	63
Seattle Sounders FC	1.666667	56.66667	1.8	31	1.545455	26.27273	57
FC Dallas	1.789474	60.84211	2.090909	36	1.375	23.375	59
Real Salt Lake	1.764706	60	2.1	36	1.285714	21.85714	58
Colorado Rapids	1.35	45.9	1.4	24	1.3	22.1	46
Chivas USA	1.157895	39.36842	1.2	20	1.111111	18.88889	39
San Jose Earthquakes	1.222222	41.55556	1.4	24	1	17	41
Portland Timbers	1.058824	36	1.6	27	0.285714	4.857143	32
Vancouver Whitecaps FC	0.7	23.8	1.222222	21	0.272727	4.636364	25

Wow, just looking at the top 4 teams in comparison with the Eastern Conference makes you glad MLS has a balanced schedule. If they didn't it could be much worse for the two expansion teams. Houston must also be happy they moved because their projected 40 points is only 8 off of a play-off spot in the East, while that would get them 7th place in the West. The only silver lining in these numbers concerning Portland is the fact that they will not be dead last and would have at least 3 or 4 teams behind them.

The other obvious news is the fact that with the other teams in the conference having some huge projected point totals Play-offs is over and done with. The only way Play-offs become an option is if the .27 ppg on the road comes up to 1 ppg and the home ppg comes up to 2.

Cascadia Cup

Not only is it half-way through the MLS season but 3 of the 6 Cascadia Cup games have been played. Here are the current standings:

	Pts	GP
Seattle	5	3
Vancouver	1	1
Portland	1	2

Looking at these standings Portland still has a shot at winning the cup but only if Vancouver ties or beats Seattle and Portland wins both the games against the Whitecaps.

Also to get your hopes up here is something to consider. Portland has yet to play the three out of the four worst road teams at home, Vancouver, Toronto and New England. However the road games don't get any easier as they have already played and lost to most of the teams that have bad home records:

Look for a in depth analysis of player-positions and why Portland is struggling on defense soon (hopefully in the next 2 days).

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Comments

Timbers are really down now and...

there doesn’t seem to be an easy fix, but that doesn’t mean all hope for the season is lost. Aug. 20th which will hopefully be 3pts and Sept. 24th (no W for the flounders) still gives up a lot of hope for Cascadia and maybe, just maybe, the boys will turn it around and we’ll sneak in to the playoffs.

by thrice on Jul 12, 2011 12:02 AM PDT reply actions

Statistics...

As much as I don’t like what they are telling me about my beloved Timbers, I am still fascinated with them. Thanks for the analysis!

A friend (a Carolina Railhawks supporter) and I have started up a soccer statistics podcast, where we focus on predicting the outcome of both individual games, and the season as a whole, for the various US leagues.

by Aperfectring on Jul 12, 2011 8:49 AM PDT reply actions

There's a major, major flaw with this on anything more than a superficial "fun numbers" level.

There’s an inverse difficulty in schedules for most of these teams between their home and away numbers. There’s no real way to easily compensate for that on the fly either.

I write for Stumptown Footy, SB Nation's Portland Timbers blog.

by thehemogoblin on Jul 12, 2011 11:01 AM PDT reply actions

I have been thinking about that

I was thinking of creating a spreadsheet that would calculate the what opponent’s points per game are against that team. Then I would calculate based on that team’s points but that would require be putting the whole season into a spreadsheet to run the calculations and I don’t want to do that. Unless you can think of another way….

The opponents points per game against that team is easy we just need to look at their records.

Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.

by Ryan Gates on Jul 12, 2011 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions

Another problem for Timbers is goal differential

Unless that dramatically improves and until the team strings together some wins it’s difficult to imagine Timbers being a playoff team.

Timbers coaching staff and GW have some big decisions to make soon. Do they try to add an experienced player and/or depth to the roster in order to try for a playoff run? Or do they see playoffs as unlikely and instead of making moves for speculative short term gain, do they start building for next year? IMO they should make the future the first priority. Identify strengths and weaknesses and figure out who the core of the team will be for the next 2- 3 years.

On the other hand, the team needs something to play for now. No more USOC this year, playoffs look unlikely the way the team is currently built, and as mentioned Cascadia Cup will be a tall order now. But playoffs and Cascadia Cup are “mathematically possible”. So second priority needs to be adding depth and experience now – both through addition and addition by subtraction – but without disrupting the overall growth of the club.

by yepyou'reright on Jul 12, 2011 11:52 AM PDT reply actions

Trade Kenny Cooper

I’m sure he could make a useful veteran acquisition for another team and we could acquire a younger, maybe more inexperienced player with a lot of potential in the backfield or up front. It’s clear his abilities and what we need from him (or at least what Spencer wants from him) don’t mesh at all, so swapping him out for someone who fits in with our team better would be a tremendous move.

by vitaminx on Jul 12, 2011 12:42 PM PDT reply actions

I'm not ready to trade Cooper just yet and I don't think the Timbers are either

I’m willing to give him this season to get himself together at this point. If he’s this bad in September, move him in the off season, but with the whole team being bad right now I’d be willing to give Cooper a few more months to get himself right.

by pdb on Jul 12, 2011 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions

That team up north

There were some comments on Sounder@heart saying they should trade for Cooper. There could be a feeling around the league he’s just a bad fit in Portland. We’d probably get more value by moving him sooner rather than letting him confirm he just doesn’t have it anymore. Personally I’d like to see how the season plays out, but more and more it doesn’t look like he’s a long term solution.

by ledjom on Jul 12, 2011 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I like him getting benched

But I am also not convinced he is just not getting good service.

Scoreboards, not billboards.
Regular season, not pre-season.

by lysander on Jul 12, 2011 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Also

Because he is not getting good service when he gets the ball he is trying sooooo hard to make something happen that it is making it even worse.

Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.

by Ryan Gates on Jul 12, 2011 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Well at least when he runs

He does not look as awkward as Jaqua. Jaqua has had his moments but I still just cringe when I see him awkwardly running around the field trying to look useful.

Scoreboards, not billboards.
Regular season, not pre-season.

by lysander on Jul 12, 2011 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Issue with the bad service is that

Cooper knew he was coming to an expansion team. He knew Timbers were at the top of allocation order when he chose to re-enter MLS. Nobody made him come here. He knew what he was getting into. I’m not saying it isn’t partly true about the poor service, but to blame it all on the rest of the team sounds like a cop out to me.

by yepyou'reright on Jul 12, 2011 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions