With Play-Off Hopes Running Thin, Cascadia Cup Remains

by Geoff Gibson on Aug 19, 2011 12:36 PM PDT

The Timbers were downed 3-2 in their last Cascadia Cup match making the next two must-wins.

Tomorrow is the first of two games against Cascadian rivals the Vancouver Whitecaps. Each team has been playing each other consistently since 2001 and both were elevated to MLS together this year. Unfortunately for both sides it appears that the Cascadia Cup trophy is the last piece of silverware within grasp for each team.

As we look ahead toward the rest of the season the idea of making the play-offs is bleak for the Timbers and non-existent for Vancouver. Fact of the matter is that both teams came into MLS and acted exactly like what everybody expected. They were expansion teams through and through. Even this blogger is being forced to eat his own words barring some sort of miracle for these last ten games.

But before I begin discussing the Cascadia Cup, let's break down the rest of the season really quick.

Play-offs Out of Reach?

Looking at Wednesday's match against Sporting Kansas City, I had made mention that it was a make or break game for the Timbers with respects to the play offs. I came to this conclusion just because of the Timbers' current position in the standings and the relative position of the Western Conference teams. I hate to say it, given my affinity for the west coast of the United States, but it would be awfully nice to be an east coast city right now...

But before I begin I want to stress that the TImbers aren't completely out of it yet. Yes, it's getting slimmer with each match lost and getting in under the Western Conference is fairly slim, but given the weakness of the Eastern Conference there could still be a shot at the Timbers getting into the play-offs via one of the two Eastern Conference wildcard slots.

Let's check out the current standings:

#	Club	PTS	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	GD	Home	Away	Last 5
1	LA Galaxy	48	25	13	3	9	35	20	15	7-0-5	6-3-4	W-W-W-L-W
2	FC Dallas	43	25	12	6	7	33	26	7	8-2-3	4-4-4	W-T-W-L-T
3	Seattle Sounders FC	42	25	11	5	9	35	27	8	6-2-4	5-3-5	W-W-L-W-T
4	Colorado Rapids	40	26	10	6	10	37	32	5	5-2-6	5-4-4	W-T-W-W-W
5	Real Salt Lake	36	22	10	6	6	30	17	13	8-2-3	2-4-3	W-L-L-W-L
6	Chivas USA	30	24	7	8	9	30	26	4	4-4-4	3-4-5	T-W-L-W-T
7	Portland Timbers	26	24	7	12	5	30	40	-10	6-4-2	1-8-3	T-W-T-L-L
8	San Jose Earthquakes	25	24	5	9	10	26	32	-6	3-4-7	2-5-3	T-L-L-T-L
9	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	18	24	3	12	9	25	40	-15	3-3-5	0-9-4	L-T-L-W-L

Eastern Conference

#	Club	PTS	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	GD	Home	Away	Last 5
1	Columbus Crew	37	24	10	7	7	27	23	4	7-1-4	3-6-3	L-W-W-L-W
2	Philadelphia Union	34	23	8	5	10	29	22	7	5-1-6	3-4-4	W-L-T-T-T
3	Sporting Kansas City	33	24	8	7	9	35	31	4	5-1-4	3-6-5	W-T-W-L-W
4	Houston Dynamo	32	25	7	7	11	31	30	1	7-3-3	0-4-8	L-W-T-W-T
5	New York Red Bulls	31	25	6	6	13	39	35	4	5-2-5	1-4-8	T-L-T-L-T
6	D.C. United	31	23	7	6	10	34	34	0	3-3-6	4-3-4	L-W-T-W-T
7	Toronto FC	23	26	4	11	11	25	46	-21	4-4-5	0-7-6	L-L-T-T-W
8	New England Revolution	22	25	4	11	10	24	37	-13	3-4-5	1-7-5	T-T-L-L-T
9	Chicago Fire	21	24	2	7	15	26	33	-7	1-2-8	1-5-7	L-T-L-T-T

If we look at the Western Conference the hopes of getting into the play-offs here is all but finished. With 10 games left on the table that's 30 points that the Timbers could theoretically get for a maximum of 56 points. But that's only if they win all 10 of their next games. And even if they did... what are the chances that at least the LA Galaxy, FC Dallas and the Seattle Soudners aren't going to win at least five more games total, putting each of them well over our maximum amount. Combine that with the Colorado Rapids and Real Salt Lake teams which have been playing well and we can start to see how unlikely it is that the Timbers will make it here. Remember Real Salt Lake has two games on the Timbers as well...

So instead we look to the Eastern Conference where things are much rosier. While it's still currently out of reach for the current Timbers, were they to win 4 or 5 of their next games they could realistically have a shot at that 4th and 5th wildcard spot which is open to any team from either conference. Plus they have a game in hand on both the Houston Dynamo and New York Red Bulls which makes things a little easier.

I won't say that the Timbers are still in the thick of the race. In fact they're trailing pretty bad right now, but given some hard work, elbow grease and a little luck they could make it. Just don't get your hopes up.

Cascadia Cup Looms

So, instead of focusing on the play-offs with regards to tomorrow's game we will, instead, look to the Cascadia Cup as the best opportunity for Timbers season glory. ALthough, that said, the Timbers are facing a bit of an uphill situation on that front as well.

Here are the current standings for the 2011 Cascadia Cup:

Team	Pts	Pld	W	L	D	GF	GA	GD
Seattle Sounders FC	5	3	1	0	2	6	5	+1
Vancouver Whitecaps FC	1	1	0	0	1	2	2	0
Portland Timbers	1	2	0	1	1	3	4	−1

We can see that the Timbers are currently in last place based on games played and the amount of points they've gotten out of their two games against Seattle. Seattle is, obviously, in the lead with three games players and 5 points.

So here's the deal, if Seattle wins against the Whitecaps in Vancouver the trophy is theirs. That will put them with 8 of a possibly 12 points where the Timbers can get a maximum of 7 total points as of now. However, should the Timbers win both of their Vancouver matches and should Seattle lose to Vancouver they'll be able to take home the Cascadia Cup trophy.

It's pretty bleak at the moment, but it's definitely possible at least more so than getting into the play-offs at this point.

So there you have it. The Cascadia Cup and pay-offs chances. It's pretty bleak on both ends, but I like the Timbers chances of getting the Cascadia Cup a little better. Of course, if they lose tomorrow's match then that's it for that piece of hardware. Both games against Vancouver are must-wins.

Tweet Comment 11 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I don't think it would be a surprise if we retained the Cup.

At least on paper (and that’s a big qualifier) we should beat Vancouver both times, giving us 7 points. I also don’t think it’s out of the question that the ’Caps at least tie the flounders when they play them on their home turf.

by tkauffm on Aug 19, 2011 1:25 PM PDT reply actions

A tie

Would mean Seattle wins it as well. Vancouver has to actually beat them at home.

by zaggy on Aug 19, 2011 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions

A tie would give Seattle 6 points

If the Timbers win both their games they will have 7 points.

by trk on Aug 19, 2011 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Exactly

2 wins for us and a Tie or win by the Whitecaps and it is ours.

Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.

by Ryan Gates on Aug 19, 2011 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Guess that mean's I'm rooting for the 'Caps whenever they play S**ttle next

Blazers win!

by The X-man on Aug 19, 2011 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Maybe it's just some sort of subtle mindtrick due to my burning hatred for Sewaahttle

but I first read this sentence:
“Seattle is, obviously, in the lead with three games players and 5 points.”
as
“Seattle is, obnoxiously, in the lead with three games players and 5 points.”

by vitaminx on Aug 19, 2011 5:52 PM PDT reply actions

Also,

The good thing about having that Seattle-Vancouver game in the middle of both of our Vancouver matches is that Vancouver still has something to play for even if we beat them tomorrow.

If we beat Vancouver tomorrow, we go up to 4 and they stay at 1, but they can still beat both Seattle and then us at home to win the Cascadia Cup with 7 points. Of course if they only tie Seattle after we win tomorrow, they won’t have anything but basically figuring out to give us or Seattle the Cup on 10/2. Vancouver is much more in a need to win out, having only played one Cascadia game, than the rest of us. Poor guys.

by vitaminx on Aug 19, 2011 6:01 PM PDT reply actions