Keeping the Playoff Hopes Alive
by Andrew Wheeler on Sep 28, 2011 10:01 AM PDT
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Yup, last week was a bad week.
The Portland Timbers squandered another lead against the San Jose Earthquakes, suddenly unable to keep possession and put any pressure at all on the Quakes' defense. They followed up the draw with a better quality performance on the weekend that ended in a bizarre and heartbreaking loss to the New York Red Bulls.
The Timbers are now two points behind the playoff cut, with basically five teams competing for two spots. At times like these, it's easy to throw in the towel, cut your losses, and hoist the "Wait Til Next Year" sign.
But although the odds of our making the playoffs have fallen, our hope remains. And for good reason.
1. Darlington Nagbe
Yeah, I know, it's kind of obvious, but it's worth taking a closer look anyway. When Nagbe plays, the whole team plays better.
One big statistical indicator: the team passes more when Nagbe's on the field. A lot more. Since May, when Nagbe has played 45 or fewer minutes, the team has averaged only 207 successful passes per match, with a success rate of 69%. In matches in which Nagbe has played 75 minutes or more, the team averages 276 successful passes, with a 76% average rate of success. It's a pretty quality player who, when he's on the field and playing well, can so significantly improve the team in such an important statistical area.
True, the improved passing has not necessarily led to wins; it's only a part of the game, after all. But it does correspond with more possession, more chances, and more shots. Some of those are going to go in.
2. James Marcelin
Remember him? The Haitian Sensation has yet to start a Timbers match since scoring two goals in two matches for his home country. Now, granted, those goals came against island nations with populations smaller than my high school, but they were goals nonetheless. Having watched him in training since then, I can tell you: Marcelin came back to Portland hungry to play.
He'll get his chance this Sunday, as he is likely to replace Captain Jack Jewsbury in the starting lineup (unless Peter Lowry's pair of assists in Tuesday's reserve match earn him the start, which would be pretty exciting as well). I expect to see him making the most of his chance and playing at the very top of his game, both defensively and offensively.
3. Draws
It's easy to forget in this nation of winners and losers, but roughly a third of all MLS matches end in draws. For example, the Philadelphia Union could draw against DC United on Thursday. They could also be held to a point against Chivas USA on Sunday. DC United could tie Columbus on Sunday. As long as the Timbers manage some wins and the rest of the league fills the table with its requisite allotment of draws, there's still a chance.
And besides, upsets are always possible in soccer -- just ask Real Salt Lake how they managed to lose 4-1 to DC, or Manchester United about their 3-3 draw with Swiss club Basel on Tuesday. Toronto FC could just as easily crush the NYRBs on Saturday.
But the mighty PTFC gotsta get those wins.
4. Rest
The Timbers will have at least four days of rest in between its matches from now until the last game, when they'll be playing on two days' rest against RSL, who will be resting their starters for the playoffs. As noted above, DC United and Philly are not so lucky with their schedules. More rest for the Timbers means more training sessions, too -- more time to improve and sharpen their game. Teams simply play better when they've had four to seven days of rest than they do when they've had two or three.
5. Soul? Spirit? Some intangible quality?
Whatever it is, Portland's got it; the other teams don't. They cannot stop us; we are the Rose City. We are the greatest football supporters that the world has ever seen. We're going to win the league. I don't know how; I don't know when -- but we're going to win the league (this year).
Where's your hope?
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After last week my hope is in concurrent earthquakes and weather events that swallow up NYRB and DCU
The simple fact is that the Timbers’ playoff fate isn’t in their own hands at this point. They need not only a lot of help from other teams, but something they haven’t been able to do much this season – points on the road. Draws, at this point, are almost not good enough – points need to be piled up, and fast.
I’m not pessimistic, but I am realistic – given all the variables involved, and given the road-based nature of most of the rest of the season, I would be very surprised to see the Timbers make the playoffs. But I’m OK with that at this point – if they make the playoffs, that’s awesome, but if they don’t I’m still happy with how this first MLS season went.
love john spencer
But I hope he grows with the team and realizes you gotta make a change sometimes if not for just the simple fact of resting starters. We played tired vs. San jose and Nyrb. How about infusing James Marcelin vs. San Jose and rest Jack. How about subbing rodney wallace in for salvatore or anywhere in the midfield.
Sal has looked gassed.
spenny took a shot putting Nagbe up front, and its payed off. He needs to realize were deeper. Listen we lost points going with the starters, might as well get some fresh legs and infuse some energy. Rod and James are hungry as hell to make a point they want to be on this team next year.
May lightning strike me down for saying this, but take a look at the last 5 lineups for the Sounders league matches, they have been using bench players like crazy. You have to when the games are so close together.
ZAP!
Or how about subbing before the 75th minute?
volatilelyle.com
by almost awesome on Sep 28, 2011 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
My hope is in the points
I think before the San Jose game we said we needed 7 points.. So win the two games at home and tie one on the road and we should be good. We didn’t win the one at home, but hopefully we can spoil Vancouver’s grand opening of BC Place and pick up 3 points there and then win our home finale, and all of a sudden we’re right back in it. I don’t think it’s too improbable for that to happen and even pick up a draw at DC or at RSL, although the latter is going to be much more difficult now that Javier Morales is back for them.
That said, I’m totally cool with it if the Timbers don’t make it too. It’s our first year and yeah it’s disappointing considering the Team That Shall Not Be Named and their annoying fans will troll us about how they made the playoffs their first year yaddayaddayadda and that 10/18 teams made it and hahaha we’re pathetic portscum and all that but in the long-term I can see how the team even with just a couple tweaks could easily be a contender. They’re young, they’re gelling and they’ve put together some quality wins against good teams- We’ve beaten Dallas, LA, RSL, tied at Seattle, and set ourselves up as a team not to be taken lightly. Our only great flaw is our performance on the road, but I truly believe that will get better as the team becomes more experienced over time.
I really want to see Cooper, Perlaza, AND Nagbe up front, maybe having Nagbe in a sort of attacking midfielder role where he can distribute to one of the other two guys if he can’t create his own shot. Zizzo and Alhassan are just not accurate shooters at all and shouldn’t be taking those shots.
I've said it before and I'll say it again
I really don’t waste my time worrying about what other fanbases think of the Timbers, and neither should you or anybody else. You make great points, and this off season will be huge.
That's the spirit!
And really, I don’t think we’re comparable to S**ttle in their first year. They loaded their roster with DPs and hired one of the most successful coaches in MLS history. They had to, otherwise nobody would have bought tickets. Now they have nowhere to go but down, and when they do, the fans will leave the CLink and go back across the street to the Safe.
When I write, I write for the Timbers. Contributing Editor of Stumptown Footy
by Andrew Wheeler on Sep 28, 2011 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Agree on Nagbe, Perlaza, Cooper combo
One thing we really missed against NY and SJ was Perlaza’s ability to get away to thru balls.
by yepyou'reright on Sep 28, 2011 1:13 PM PDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Perlaza's been underappreciated
I think we’ve been missing a key piece with Perlaza out of the lineup. I hope he gets the start in Alhassan’s absence.
When I write, I write for the Timbers. Contributing Editor of Stumptown Footy
by Andrew Wheeler on Sep 28, 2011 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
His inconsistent finishing aside
Perlaza has scored some dynamic and nifty goals that Cooper, Zizzo, and Kalif just haven’t yet shown the ability to do and I doubt Cooper ever will. Perlaza’s breakaway speed is something defenders have to respect and it creates chances. Put that with Nagbe’s skill and creativity and we could see some amazing goals.
Since Jack is out for the next match I
wouldn’t mind seeing Nagbe in the attacking mid role with Chara back in the holding position. Put Perlaza and Cooper up top and give Rod a start on the wing in place of Kalif.
I’m just not comfortable with the thought of a Chara and Marcelin combo with Alexander on the wing and Perlaza subbed in the 80’.
by yepyou'reright on Sep 28, 2011 2:21 PM PDT via iPhone app up reply actions
I'm ready
to not make the playoffs and the Trolls can be ignored. A glaring difference that they forget is they had the whole expansion draft to themselves.
I think the road ahead is tough and that Houston game will be huge whether we are in position or not. Houston is a tough match up, big and physical, two things the timbers have trouble matching up against.
Yah PDB who cares, they relish there wins, we will relish ours in the future. its been a peach of a first season. They are having a great year especially with the CCL qualifying.
But considering the draft, and the league has added way more talent in the last 2 years and dp’s! we have done WELL
Draft to themselves
and roster sizes of 24
and the most recent MLS Cup winner in Sigi
and an expectation expansion teams suck [MLS teams didn’t know how to react early on]
and expanded DP rules
and KC Keller
The mountain to climb was more difficult in Portland, and to succeed as the boys have done is quite impressive.
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
PDB Eleventy ONes meet up for the final match on oct 14th?
And i use the word final because I think the wild card games are one game play offs, which I doubt we will host being close to the bottom?
Can I please be corrected if wrong..
I don't know how the playoff games work but I'd be down for a meetup on the 14th
Seems like we should do it at the Lompoc, no? I’ll check with the Master Scheduler and let you know – maybe we can get a bunch of Eleventy Oneses to come out for it….
(we kept a flag after the last game!)
Oh and email me (email's in my profile)
I don’t have your contact info and there’s not an email address in your profile.
We'll know a lot after Sunday...
The playoffs are still realistic, if unlikely. If we get 8 or 9 points from the last 4 games, that’s probably good enough.
We should be able to beat Vancouver, even on the road. They’re a much better team at home, but the fact is they are still not a very good team. We’ll have 500 fans there to cheer our boys on. We’ve got a shot up there.
We should be able to beat Houston at home. As bad as we are on the road, Houston is only marginally better. They just got their first road win, albeit against a quality opponent. Still, I’d take us in that game.
Our best bet at this point may be the fact that our season finale is against a team with little to play for. We’re at RSL on 10/22. They are essentially locked into either the 2 or 3 slot in the west, so will play Sh*ttle on 10/29. It would not be shocking if a bunch of their starters get the day off. If I were the coach I wouldn’t risk my playoff run by playing starters against a desperate team scrapping for the 10 seed, when I’ve got little to play for. That said, it’s their home finale, so they’ll not want to embarrass themselves in front of their fans. Still that game may be winnable.
DC away will be rough. They’re in the same boat as us and can’t afford to drop points at home. It’s a mid-week game and both teams will be running on fumes. That’s the one game I’d take a draw in.
The DC away match
I’m really hoping that match is meaningful, for both teams.
When I write, I write for the Timbers. Contributing Editor of Stumptown Footy
by Andrew Wheeler on Sep 28, 2011 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions
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