Clearing up some misconceptions regarding the next few signings
by zaggy on Jan 17, 2012 8:58 AM PST
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PrintI was originally going to combine this with a look at the roster so far, with an eye on what kind of salary room the Timbers still have to operate in (I'll be posting that late tonight likely, lets just say they have ALOT of flexibility still), but I saw a few comments that I wanted to weigh in on now.
1) Chara counts as a DP for the entire length of his contract (or until he's cut, as MLS contracts are not guaranteed). Even if he's making less than 335k (likely), the cost of his transfer fee is amortized across the length of the contract. Should he stay here past his contract (I haven't seen anything set in stone, but its likely a 4 year contract, or a 2 year plus 2 team option years that are extremely common in MLS), and be making less than 335k (or whatever the DP threshold is at that time) he wouldn't be considered a DP at that time. Its possible that the Timbers could renegotiate a deal at some point and pay off the balance of the transfer fee in allocation money, allowing them to add another DP if that's desired.
2) Valencia also counts as a DP for exactly the same reason. Its likely his transfer fee was significantly higher than Chara's given his age/promise, but I would be surprised if he was making much more than 100k in salary himself. However, because he is only 20, he qualifies under new MLS rules that lessen the cap hit of younger DPs, meaning he only counts $150k against our cap, even though his salary + amortized transfer fee is > 335k.
3) If we sign a 3rd DP, we are required to pay $250k to the league to be distributed to teams that don't sign a 3rd DP. This means Merritt is really opening up his pocket to sign this guy.
4) If, given what Merritt has said that we are looking for a DP that is a true #9 forward, this defensive signing today, whoever it is, is not a DP. That means they are likely on a free transfer.
5) All the talk about a USMNT player needs to be understood in the context that all returning USMNT players, whose rights are un-owned by an MLS team, are allocated via an established order based on finishing position with any expansion team representing the first team in line. That means unless we can trade up and take someone else's spot (very spotty/hard to say with any definitiveness), we would have no chance to sign said player. We do however own Findley and Bornstein's rights, however, but at the same time, I can't see any likelihood either returning this winter. Findley is playing regularly and Bornstein is making the 18 (and frankly, probably making far more money than he would be with us), so I can't see a move within the next month. This summer however could be a different story. Additionally, the only way around the allocation order for USMNT players is to make that person a DP offer. However, there is not even really a true #9 in the USMNT pool currently (maybe Altidore), but even then, none of them are likely to be coming back anytime soon, even for a DP offer.
6) I expect to see another potential starter that could perhaps see time in the midfield or out wide, and am hoping we see that DP forward Merritt has hinted about (a takeaway from the salary cap numbers, there was no chance we could sign a DP with Cooper on the roster....so him getting moved was to facilitate this one). I expect both to be internationals.
Alright guys, I don't believe I have to say this but, just in case, please do not submit anything racist, homophobic, sexist or otherwise not appropriate for even the younger Timbers fans.
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Excellent!
Thank you for the explanations. I had specifically asked about Chara’s DP status and how long it lasted yesterday, and I like being informed.
I personally would like some wild speculation as to who the #9 could be. The agent for Zlatan Ibrahimovic recently said his client would like to finish his career in Milan, so there’s one down. ;-)
Wayne Rooney
Is that wild enough for you? :)
Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.
Next int'l signing probably not a forward
Based on what MP has said in the past, I am assuming that if their next international signing goes forward as planned (and that’s a big if), it is likely a defender who can play either fullback or wing who is currently playing in Europe. While they are certainly going to go shopping for a striker at some point, I don’t think they were as far ahead in the acquisition process for that position as they are for the next international signing. And frankly I think they’re a lot thinner at the defensive sides than they are at striker at the moment. Dike is rested and ready; Nagbe is more comfortable playing as a forward but has played at the wing because he’s been asked to; and Rodney Wallace sure looks comfortable as a midfielder for his national team. I’m hoping for a D/MF, preferably a guy who plays RB who can also play on the wings if needed.
But that’s just my opinion. YMMV.
West Side, West Side, sing us a song!
Yep!
This is what I see as most likely, and sorta addressed it in point 6 (although I left out out wide in the defense…oops).
Another idea that hasn’t been really been seen yet, is Jack was used often as a RB by KC. Perhaps another option (though one I sorta doubt we’d see at this point).
Hmm, interesting.
Jack at RB, James as the enforcer, deep in the MF, freeing up Chara…Hmm….
West Side, West Side, sing us a song!
The problem is....
It doesn’t really free up our outside backs to really get forward as Spencer seemed to want to play last year. Jewsbury would likely be solid in that role defensively, but I’m not sure he’d provide much offensively if at all. If we were more convinced of our wings being able to break down defenses without the threat of an overlap, perhaps its a solution though.
I doubt this
Our outside backs seem to have difficulty with fast, quick opposition. Cap’n Jack won’t solve that.
True
Again, more of an option, then a solution. Alot of the improvement we hope to see I think depends on changing the defensive philosophy of our fullbacks, which played very much on an island/man on man defense, rather than getting alot of help before the run had been made. Not sure we have the personnel to defend/attack the way Spencer wanted out of the back yet.
Outside Defense
Our two biggest issues last season were wide defense and MF production. We haven’t addressed the wide defense yet. I think the MF production will be less of an issue this year.
2) Valencia also counts as a DP for exactly the same reason. Its likely his transfer fee was significantly higher than Chara’s given his age/promise, but I would be surprised if he was making much more than 100k in salary himself. However, because he is only 20, he qualifies under new MLS rules that lessen the cap hit of younger DPs, meaning he only counts $150k against our cap, even though his salary + amortized transfer fee is > 335k.
I doubt Valencia’s transfer fee is higher than Chara’s, since Chara was a proven player and Valencia is not. Chara’s transfer fee was said to be around $2 million. By comparison, FC Dallas paid $800k for 50% of Fabian Castillo’s contract (so his value would be $1.6 million). Castillo is a younger and more highly touted prospect than Valencia, so I would expect Valencia’s transfer fee to be less than $1.6 million.
3) If we sign a 3rd DP, we are required to pay $250k to the league to be distributed to teams that don’t sign a 3rd DP. This means Merritt is really opening up his pocket to sign this guy.
I thought that as part of the youth DP rule, teams with 3 DPs would not have to pay the $250k if one of them was a youth DP.
Language is vague
Given it says you avoid the fee if the third DP is an underaged player
http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2011/08/16/dp-rule-changed-allow-younger-players-cost-less
Another incentivize for clubs to seek out this young talent is the fact that they will avoid the one-time $250,000 fee required for a third DP slot when the signing involves a DP who is 23 years of age or younger.
Potentially, yes, they could avoid it, but Valencia is currently occupying our second DP slot, and I’m not sure if MLS re-orders them should our third DP, rumored to be a striker at this point, is not u-23.
No way I’d agree that Castillo is higher rated than Valencia. Valencia played 300 minutes in 5 games in the U-20 WC to Castillo’s 47 minutes in 2 games. He’s far more regarded in Colombia and his pedigree is better, given his Dad’s career. If we own all his rights, I see no way we could have got them for less than $2million (and as many things, that Chara number is up in the air….even though he’s established its very common to have to overpay for youth).
Young DPs are a class on their own, and you only get one. So,
I would hold that because there is the “incentive” of not paying the luxury fee for the young DP order matters not. The DP rules do not presume that you must follow any particular order. It’s just that if you get to that 3d DP slot, the luxury fee will kick in absent a young DP.
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
How sure are you of only 1 counting as a young DP?
I’ve never seen that you can only have one……
Castillo
Seemed to fall out of favor with the Colombian U-20 team after he was sold to Dallas. However, before coming to MLS he was regarded by many people as the top prospect on that Colombian U-20 team. There was a tournament between the USA, Mexican, and Colombian U-20 teams a couple months before Castillo came to MLS, and the people who were at that tournament singled out Castillo as being not only the best Colombian, but as being better than any of the American or Mexican players as well. So Castillo came into MLS with a lot of hype, even though his stock has dropped some since then.
Also, why would Adolfo Valencia’s accomplishments have any impact on Jose Valencia’s transfer value? Just because the father was a good player is no indication that the son will be.
More an indication of genetics
Valencia has a better body to handle MLS over Castillo (who ended up on the wings/further out for Dallas last year with his slighter frame). I don’t disagree that Castillo isn’t a good talent, but even in the CONEMBOL tournament (which is what I think you are referring to? If not, I’d want to see the squad list) before the U-20s, he was ok, not great.
Valencia was/is considered, as best I can tell from everything I’ve ever read, the best non-European based U-20 forward (they have a guy at Udinese thats already starting to tear it up). He wasn’t starting much in Colombia, just like Castillo, but both have alot of upside. (I think we are splitting hairs here, both guys are upside guys without being proven at all, arguing one is significantly better than the other is probably a zero-sum game. For my money, I’d rather have Valencia, and that’s as someone who was bummed Castillo didn’t end up here).
hmmm
I see now there has been nothing discussed about any limits to the number of young DPs. With nothing stated you can safely assume all three can be under that designation.
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
So true
However this allows for them to function in a grey area and I kind of agree with that despite the fact that it is frustrating as a fan/blogger
Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.
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