Stumptown Footy's Five Portland Timbers Predictions for 2012
by Geoff Gibson on Jan 3, 2012 12:13 PM PST
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PrintAh new year, new MLS season. I've said that ad nauseam now, but it's true. And with a new season comes, well, new everything! We'll see new players, new tactics, new matches, new business partnerships... really the door is wide open.
As such, I've decided to compile a list of 2012 predictions. You know, just for fun. I could be way off and really these have no, or little, factual basis so it remains to be seen if anything actually becomes of them, but since I'm aching for some MLS chatter and 2012 MLS SuperDraft doesn't kick off until next week, this will hopefully keep our minds active.
So here we go!
1. The Portland Timbers will reach the 2012 play-offs
We'll start off with an easy one. Fact of the matter is that the 2011 Timbers only barely managed to avoid getting into the play-offs and since much of the starting 11 is still there and the Timbers FO is focusing on shoring up key aspects in the off season it stands to reason that they should make the play-offs in the upcoming season. What they do in the play-offs, however, I won't even begin to predict.
2. Another big signing is coming, possibly a DP
The Timbers are currently using two of their Designated Player spots on Diego Chara and Jose Adolfo Valencia. That leaves a third spot open. Now, I'm not saying that the Timbers will splurge on another DP, but it wouldn't surprise me. All I'm saying is that we'll see another "big name" come in in some fashion. Could it be Jonathan Bornstein (who is a serviceable MLS left back)? Whispers had it that he was unhappy at Tigres de la UANL.
3. A big name will get traded away
The Timbers currently have on roster six layers who I'd consider to be "big names" for the team: Kenny Cooper, Jack Jewsbury, Diego Chara, Jose Adolfo Valencia, Darlington Nagbe and Kalif Alhassan (purely opinion, no justification needed). My guess is that one of those players will get traded or sold. Which one though? Kenny Cooper would be the obvious pick given his recent resurgence late in the season and that he would fetch a pretty penny. Alhassan, however, I could also see getting traded away. While he's a remarkable youth, he's also very valuable. If he performs well enough in the first half of the season, we could see some larger teams come sniffing around.
4. Jeld-Wen Field will be renamed
Between filing for bankruptcy and selling off 58% of itself to the Onex Corporation it started to sound like the naming rights to Jeld-Wen Field might not be all that necessary. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Onex bought the rest of Jeld-Wen Field and renamed the field as part of the deal similar to the Qwest-CenturyLink deal that happened up in Seattle. Personally, I'd prefer it if we just went back to PGE.
5. It's going to be another sold out, hard-to-find tickets year for the Timbers
Probably the easiest guess, but with the Timbers becoming such a household name in the city and the buzz still very palpable due to the atmosphere and experience, my guess is that the Timbers FO is going to have no problem filling in those extra 2,000-ish seats they're adding. I'll add an addendum on to this prediction as well: by the end of the 2012 season the Timbers will be back at a 5,000+ waiting list for season tickets.
So what do you think? Don't be too harsh on me if you disagree. These are just fun guesses. Sound off with your own predictions as well!
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A playoff appearance "stands to reason"? Really?
I hope your prediction about the playoffs is right, but it contains two huge assumptions. First, there is the assumption that other teams will stand still or regress from their 2011 performances, and second, the assumption that the Timbers will automatically perform the same or better as they did last year. Sports are notoriously fluid and fickle – the exact same Timbers team from last year might not do as well next year, because of the unpredictable nature of injuries, player mentalities, etc. As critics of baseball’s students of advanced statistics say, "these are people, not numbers on a spreadsheet’.
It can’t be said that a Timbers playoff appearance is something that is the inevitable byproduct of keeping an intact squad and making changes, because other teams are also making changes and improving their rosters.
by pdb on Jan 3, 2012 12:32 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
No but statistically...
A team with high turnover does worse than one that keeps its core. The Timbers kept their core, many other teams have not ergo it stands to reason that the Timbers have a shot at making the play-offs.
Also, I said numerous times it was all in good fun predictions. Would you have had me say the Timbers won’t reach the play-offs? It would be no more right than my current predictions.
RCTID - Stumptown Footy
Moderator of /r/MLS
by Geoff Gibson on Jan 3, 2012 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
I don't disagree they have a reasonably good shot and may in fact get in the playoffs
but your “the Portland Timbers will make the playoffs” opening sentence isn’t really supported in any meaningful way by “it stands to reason that they should make the play-offs in the upcoming season”. As you yourself said elsewhere, there are many moves to be made yet this off season – we don’t know the effect of those moves yet, and while we can all assume they’ll be good moves, how long will it take those moves to pay off?
I really do hope the Timbers make the playoffs. I just can’t sit here in January and say that the playoffs this year are an inevitability because of last year.
by pdb on Jan 3, 2012 12:51 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
each year the leauge has been getting better
That is something most all people agree on. So I have to side with PDB on this. You have to improve more than the other teams, not just improve to be so confident they are going to make the playoffs.
Also the qualifications route changed as well which slightly confuses things as well.
Stadium
What I am more curious about is when those extra seats in the stadium get gobbled up, and the waiting list grows, how long before there is discussion on expanding the stadium again to increase seating? I think that Portland could easily land another 10,000 fans in the stadium in the long run – especially in the summer and fall.
The Timbers are the blue-collar team in Portland. More fun, more enjoyable and more affordable than the Blazers (imho). Watching another ‘sell-out’ Blazer game where at least a 1/4 of the seats are empty tells me all I need to know that there are a lot of people not impressed by the NBA.
I personally make a point of greeting and complimenting EVER customer that comes into my store wearing any Timber’s gear, and that number is growing all the time. Makes me proud!
Portland was hungry for another professional team, and an alternative to the NBA. I serious do not think it will be too long before the discussion of more seating becomes a hot button with the team.
And back to the main post, I would LOVE to have us sign one more center back. That is the one position where the wear and tear of the season hits most, and we need more depth there. A DP caliber CB would be an excellent improvement for the team.
Enjoying my English football, but can’t wait for the Timbers to start up again.
There's nowhere to expand JWP within the existing footprint of the stadium
and there’s nowhere to expand the footprint. I think a 20,000 seat stadium is about right – once the novelty of MLS wears off a lot of people won’t necessarily be regulars, so you don’t want a stadium that will have 8-10K empty seats in lean years.
by pdb on Jan 3, 2012 1:38 PM PST up reply actions
Up
I am not an architect, but I bet someone could come up with a way to add one riser on the east side of the stadium, IF demand necessitated it. Yeah, I don’t think there is a way to add 10K or even 5K, but there might be ways to add another 3K through expansion, if needed.
As far as the fan base goes, however, I don’t think there is ever going to be a drop off. I think the demographics of Portland have changed since the earlier Timbers incarnation (Think NASL), I think that this little berg has been waiting for another professional team to support. I know a lot of folks who support the Timbers and could care less about the Blazers.
As long as Portland fields a good team, I think the support will continue to grow. Heck, even the rivalry with Seattle and Vancouver will help the fan base grow. In a one, now two, sport city, I think the Timbers will continue to thrive.
South Deck?
What about getting rid of the huge open (and often empty) space behind the South Deck Bleachers? MP talked about some discussions involving renovations that would get them another 1,000 or so seats on Talk Timbers a week or two back. I would think that is really the only direction to go
That is entirely dependent on the MAC and they probably won't budge in any significant way
It’s their land, after all.
by pdb on Jan 3, 2012 2:37 PM PST up reply actions
No, it's not their land.
They deeded the land to the city. What they do have is a right of first refusal and easement [which is an encumbrance on the deed].
Right of first refusal means they get the chance to yea/nay a deal if the city decides the sell the stadium.
The easement is one which allows the MAC to gain visible access to the stadium. They built it, and they want their members to see events there. No one can block their view because the stadium deed says so.
They don’t own it. The city of Portland does.
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
I don't think there will be a drop off either
but I also think the Timbers hit their attendance sweet spot at the approx. 20K mark. Portland isn’t as populous as Seattle or Vancouver (metro areas), so it wouldn’t make sense to put a 35K seat stadium here, because I don’t think that many people would show up week in and week out.
I’d rather have a waiting list for scarce seats than have seats available for $3 on StubHub.
by pdb on Jan 3, 2012 2:39 PM PST up reply actions
According to wikipedia
I see portland at 2.2 million, vancouver at 2.3 million and seattle at 3.4. So proportionally it should have a stadium about the same as Vancouver and about 2/3rds Seattle.
Up is the way to go...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estadio_Alberto_J._Armando
Just like those guys!
JWF needs to be 24-28k
The big problem with Civic PGE Jeld Wen is not necessarily the number of seats but the concourse width and bathrooms – especially along the old first base side stand. I could see a future expansion where they rip out everything above the concourse and add a second deck that opens up space below. That way you get rid of the obstructed seats, possibly add a few more and expand the press box.
However I think that is a long ways in the future.
I could see the beer deck on the south side being taken out to fit a removable set of stands. It’s nice to have some open spaces and beer garden but I rather have a few more thousand in the stadium.
Right now, Portland – at 20,323 – has the 12th largest stadium in the MLS. I think in the future we will need to expand to 24-28,000.
A few thousand more seats will allows the stadium to hold events in addition to Timbers games. Everything from larger stadium bands to higher profile American football games to even more national team games could come to Portland with a slightly larger stadium. The neighborhood might have something to say about that though…
Neighborhood would have lots to say...
It’s been a struggle for them with 18,000 I’m not sure they’d be willing to allow another 10,000 or so in.
RCTID - Stumptown Footy
Moderator of /r/MLS
In that location you will not get a stadium that is substantially bigger than it is now
The neighborhood will not go for it, especially if it means a ton more events in the stadium. I’m not sure it “needs” to be much bigger than it is now – at 20K it’s pretty much guaranteed to sell out every game, and that’s the goal.
by pdb on Jan 3, 2012 9:03 PM PST up reply actions
Dont forget the new playoff formating..
Not familiar with the new system myself, but the overall reaction from fans all around makes it sound like it will be harder to get in this year.. Plus there’s another team added to the mix.
Seeing as we didn’t get in this past year, and it may be harder to get in this year, don’t get to excited yet..
White Gold in the house!
I generally agree with these predictions, a few nuanced exceptions
I expect Portland Timbers to make the playoffs. Grace period is over and I don’t care what other teams are doing. No built-in excuses. I expect wins.
I don’t think Kalif will get traded. My money would be on Cooper, especially if Trencito exceeds expectations in his first season. Maybe Jack, depending on circumstances. If Kalif plays great the next season or two I could see Europe calling eventually, but I doubt he would be traded to another MLS club.
As for the stadium, I could care less who sponsors it. Just as long as it’s not Chalupa Park or something. But if the Chalupa guys were going to pony up for it and that helps the team sign good players, well….
We're going to turn it on, we're going to give you the power.
One name that is missing from your "big names" trade list: Troy Perkins
Every year, at least 2-3 MLS teams get desperate for a new goalkeeper. If Gleeson continues to develop, I could see Perkins moving on within the next 18-24 months.
No way that they will get rid of Jose Adolfo Valencia, Darlington Nagbe and Kalif Alhassan… at least not for two or three years. It would take a lot to prey Chara away with the investment the team made in him.
I can see Cooper and Jewsbury being in the shop window now. However, I think all of them will be with the team on opening day.
That's true...
I should have included him, but he’s also one of the players I don’t see going anywhere for quite a while.
RCTID - Stumptown Footy
Moderator of /r/MLS
JEld Wen name is not going anywhere and
Lots of corporations own subsidiaries and don’t mess with the brand. Why would any Timber fan not want the stadium named. This is a huge money maker for the team. Money they can use to sign players and make said improvements to the team.
And as far as the stadium getting bigger here are some facts.
2000 Seats were added in the TA but not all were sold. MP tweeted these were added for some breathing room, since the North End was packed so tight.
I love the Timbers and I think they are a big deal, but outside of the Season ticket base and some fringe fans, I think there is still a long ways to go. A simple, but good measuring stick would be comparing comment traffic on Blazersedge to STF. Its not even close. And that’s just comparing the blog heads like us.
Yeah the Blazers might not be sold out for every game but people pay Substantially higher prices to go to Blazer games and they do if for double the amount of games
I think our record this year was well earned. I hope the chemistry of the team and the all around play improves like it did toward the end of the season. If that happens we can make the playoffs for sure.
BlazersEdge compared to other NBA SBNation blogs?
A look at the Celtics blog. 100 comments for the last game write up. BE? Post-game Open Thread has 445 and counting. Not scientific, but at least suggestive.
BE is a beast in SBNation’s NBA section from what I understand.
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
also, Blazers Edge has been around A LOT longer
and is looked at as a source of legit Blazers journalism, at this point I don’t know how much demand there is for Timbers/Soccer journalism.
Honestly, I don’t know how much of the general Timbers fan base even know this site exists, I know I wouldn’t except that when it launched Blazers Edge gave it a few shout outs.
I JUST WANT MY BASKETBALL BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Sean in Vancouver on Jan 3, 2012 11:31 PM PST up reply actions
So you are saying...
What I write is not legit :(
j/k I know what you mean, also it took BlazersEdge almost 8 years to get where it is at now.
Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.
exactly!
lol Stumptown Footy is great, I’ve learned a ton about the game and the team here. Hopefully in another year or two we’ll get to listen to Ryan Gates on John Canzano breaking down the latest Timbers acquisition.
I JUST WANT MY BASKETBALL BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Sean in Vancouver on Jan 4, 2012 12:47 AM PST up reply actions
Pretty lame email from the team today
I don’t believe they should make their season ticket holders pay for a tour of the field. I’m not sure if the fact that it’s only $5 makes me feel better or worse about it. Have the store open and call it good.
Maybe the guys paying $99, otherwise I think it’s a lame move. Someone tweet Merritt about that.
volatilelyle.com
You do realize that the Timbers are a business and exist to make a profit, right?
It’s not a charity. Everything they do is designed to make money.
by pdb on Jan 4, 2012 6:29 AM PST up reply actions
Those predictions are lacking boldness.
They will pick up another DP… you know, maybe.
They will trade one of their top 6… it could happen.
Time to step it up!!
Timbers are going to win the World Cup this year!!! You heard it here first!
[/thatcanhappenididntjustmakeanassofmyselfright?]
Taxes don't kill jobs.
In that case, five hyperbold perdictions
1: Diego Chara will be in the running for MVP and a All-Star: A stronger supporting cast plus potential equals a awesome season in prospect for Diego.
2: Darlington Nagbe will get 10 goals plus 10 assists: Nagbe was at his best last year as a second striker or playing a attacking midfielder. His style of play reminds me an awful lot of Paul Scholes rather than a typical winger. Scholes was the offensive point guard for the great ManU teams of the 90’s and 00’s. I think Nagbe can be that for us. If he plays in the middle and up the park, he will be a revelation over the course of a season.
3: My ‘Ziggy Piggy, Ziggy Piggy, Ziggy Piggy’ cheer will continue to make a few people chuckle at Flounder derbies who get the Bill and Ted’s Excellence Adventures reference.
4: The Timbers will have a positive goals-to-goals-conceded number. Last year we let in eight more goals than we scored. However with how gelled this defense is, I don’t see them letting in 48 goals again. I think 36-40 is a closer number for 2012. It will also help that the offense will be more potent this year.
5: Jack Jewsbury will be traded at midseason. I love me some Capt’in Jack but he just doesn’t fit the future plans of this team. With so many younger midfielders coming up and the fact that he is on the precipice of his decline, it might be a case of sell while the stock is high. There will be a market for him since there are teams like New York who need a good holding midfielder who can put a ball in.
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