I don't think many people would have guessed the Timbers would be playoff eligible in October with three games remaining, but they are. Vancouver's anemic play and Dallas' inability to capitalize on Vancouver's slide has given Portland the slimmest of chances to make the playoffs mathematically.
This is how the scenario plays out:
- Portland wins out, get all 9 points in the next three matches (@SEA, @Van, SJ). You see one of those "six-pointers" is thrown in there.
- Vancouver must lose out. (CUSA, POR, @RSL)
- Dallas getting no better than one point. (CUSA, @SEA, @CUSA)
- Colorado is still in this too, they need two wins and a draw with the same results in #2 and #3. (SJ, @CUSA, HOU). Having just earned a point on LA they can only drop two points in their next three games whereas Portland cannot drop a single point and stay in the playoff race.
I may not have the math right for Colorado, but whatever. There is mathematical probability but no reasonable hope for playoff glory for that team either. And in other news, six teams can still finish out the season at less than 1.00 ppg: TFC*, COL, POR, PHI, NER, CUSA. No season has had more than three teams under 1.00 ppg (1999, and 2011 the only instances).
*At 22 pts, 3 games left, max of 31 points, they already will have less than 1.00 ppg.
I didn't do any of these numbers. All credit to this thread.