Toronto FC and Chivas USA have neatly sewn up the first and second picks in the draft, but picks three through six are still up for grabs. The Timbers, who currenty hold the fourth worst record in the league, are within striking distance of each position.
New England Revolution, 32 points, 33 games played, 38 goals scored
Portland Timbers, 33 points, 33 games played, 33 goals scored
Colorado Rapids, 34 points, 33 games played, 42 goals scored
Philadelphia Union, 36 points, 32 games played, 36 goals scored
(check out the full table here)
However, since not all outcomes are created equal, I thought we should take a look at just what the likelihood is that the Timbers could get their hands on picks three through six and just how that could happen.
Odds: Damn near impossible.
How to get there: Timbers beat San Jose and scoring x+4 goals (where x is the number of goals scored by Philadelphia over their last two games) and Philadelphia loses to Kansas City and Philadelphia loses to New York
The Timbers beating San Jose could happen. The Timbers scoring four goals (is much less likely but still) could happen. Philadelphia could lose out and get shut out each time along the way. All that stuff happening in the same week? Not gonna happen.
Odds: Not great, but not terrible either.
How to get there: Timbers beat San Jose and Colorado tie or lose to Houston
On paper, the Timbers don't have much of a chance against this year's Supporter's Shield winners. Luckily for Timbers fans, and unluckily for the Timbers' chances at getting an early draft pick, Portland has been where high flying teams come to go completely off the rails. If the Timbers pull off the win then this is likely where they will end up.
Odds: Pretty good, actually.
How to get there: Timbers lose to San Jose and New England lose to Montreal OR Timbers tie San Jose and and New England tie Montreal OR Timbers beat San Jose and Colorado beats Houston
This is the pessimist's pick. In the first Superdraft Carlos Bocanegra was taken with the fourth pick and since then the most notable player taken has been Mike Magee. Not only would staying at pick number four entail thinking more about Mike Magee, it would also require the Timbers to lose out one way or another, whether that means losing outright to San Jose, losing on goals scored to Colorado, or just losing out because Colorado won.
Odds: I doubt it.
How to get there: Timbers lose to San Jose and New England beats or ties Montreal OR Timbers tie San Jose and New England beats Montreal
Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't mind the 3rd pick in the draft, but to get there things are just going to have to go wrong for the Timbers. New England passing the Timbers in the standings would just be disheartening even if it would be totally in fitting with the rest of the season. Luckily, Montreal is strong at home and will be looking to finish their first season in MLS on a high.