Portland Timbers 2012 Season Buy or Sell
by Ryan Gates on Feb 9, 2012 3:28 PM PST
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PrintI posed some statements to the other writers of Stumptown Footy and asked them to buy or sell the statement with a brief explanation. Here are our answers:
Kris Boyd will score 10+ goals this season.
Andrew:
Sell. I've held this opinion close to my chest. I want to believe that Boyd is going to be the goalscorer the Timbers organization has cast their lot in, but to me there are still just a few too many questions. Will he be coachable, will he get along with his teammates, can he still produce like he did in the SPL? Goals are fickle things, they're unpredictable, and even the best players in the world can't will the ball into the goal. A lot has to go right to score a goal, and right now, there are too many things that could go wrong.
William:
Buy. Kris Boyd has the talent to bag some goals in MLS. With a more consistent Kalif Alhassan to provide service, healthy Jorge Perlaza to stretch the defense, and Diego Chara free to get forward, Boyd will have ample opportunities that he will put away nicely. That being said, players often struggle in their first season in MLS and I don't see Boyd being any different. I am going to predict 12 goals for Boyd this season.
Ryan:
Buy. Boyd's goal scoring tally will have very little to do with whether or not he can put the ball in the back of the net as he has proven he can. How many goals he gets will be heavily influenced by the improvement of the service Portland can provide with balls into the penalty area. I firmly believe Portland has upgraded, or will with the signing of Songo'o, or improved (Nagbe) on the wings and because of this Boyd can and will score more than 10 goals this year.
More after the jump
Kalif Alhassan will score 5 goals or more this season.
Andrew:
Sell. So far in training I've seen a lot of the same stuff from Kalif -- great crossing, great ball control, speed -- but for all the individual ability that he has, he doesn't combine with his teammates in ways that get himself in position to score. I think he will score a lot of assists in 2012, and I hope he scores a few goals, but I'm not expecting him to score five, especially considering the depth in the squad may limit him to fewer minutes than he had in 2011.
William:
Sell. Will Kalif score a goal this season? Yes (God I hope so). Will he score five? Nope. I just have not seen anything to make me think that he has taken a step forward from last year. I think he will put up plenty of assists, but the goals will continue to elude him until he can figure out how to put himself in more dangerous positions and stop taking chip shots at the far corner.
Ryan:
Sell. Judging by the signings Portland has completed and by the trialists they have brought in Portland is looking to upgrade on the wings. If Portland signs Song'o, still a big if, then Kalif will only see the playing field as a sub and only for spot minutes. Being on the bench will be a test for a young player but one that may cause him to work harder and become even better then he is now.
Captain Jack will once again lead the team in points.
Andrew:
Sell. Captain Jack led the team in points in 2011 because he carried the team for the first several months of the season. He will not need to carry the team ever again. He will play his game well in 2012 and lead the team as captain, but I expect others to lead the team statistically.
William:
Sell. Spending more of the season in a defensive position while Chara is given license to get forward is going to limit the number of goals and assists that Captain Jack finds himself a part of. The possibility of Franck Songo'o taking over some free kick duties will also limit Jack's assists.
Ryan:
Sell. Portland's over-reliance on set-pieces to generate offense during the first half the season is where Captain Jack earned most of his assists and goals. This will become more and more sparse as Portland has signed a PK specialist in Boyd and have other players taking set-pieces. Captain Jack will influence the team in other ways which will be harder to quantify but will be more essential to the long term success of this team and making the play-offs.
The Outside midfielders will combine for 10+ goal this season.
Andrew:
Buy. Assuming Songo'o will be added to the roster and Zizzo will come back healthy (and especially if Davids is also added at some point this year), the competition for the starting outside midfield spots will be significantly more fierce in 2012. Among all the players competing for those positions, I believe they will score 10 goals easily.
William:
Sell. Kalif Alhassan, Sal Zizzo, Franck Songo'o, Eric Alexander, Darlington Nagbe, and Rodney Wallace have a combined 14 career goals in 20 seasons of first team games. While I think a number of these guys will take a serious step forward this year, I don't see the Timbers scoring more than a handful of goals from the wings.
Ryan:
Buy. If Portland is to complete actually make the playoffs they need three things to happen and this is one of those. Darlington Nagbe will build on his 2 goals and Eric Alexander will get more playing time in the coming year and these two have a better ability to get into dangerous positions to either score or create for other players.
Troy Perkins will have double digit shutouts this year.
Andrew:
Buy. The Timbers had nine shutouts in MLS competition in 2011, and that's counting the first half of the season during which the team's defense was one of the worst in the league. If the first half Timbers had been as good as the second half, Perkins would have had double digit clean sheets in 2011. Barring injuries, he will certainly have ten or more in 2012.
William:
Buy. The Timbers defense looks stronger than it did this time last year both in terms of depth and starters. Add in the Timber's goals against average of 1.06 in the second half of the season and you have the possibility of plenty of shutouts this season.
Ryan:
Buy: Portland's defensive struggles during the first half of the season last year put a lot of pressure on Troy to make multiple big saves a game. However the second half of the year Perkins only needed to come up with one, maybe two, good saves to keep Portland in the game or ahead. The first few games of the season will again test Troy as the defense will still be looking to gel but for the rest of the year Portland will be as good defensively as they were the last 13 games of last year.
Portland will make the playoffs this year.
Andrew:
Buy. Come on. I'm not going to bet against the Green and White. If I'm going to be completely honest, I don't have any confidence at all that the Timbers will be able to climb the Western conference table any higher than they did in 2012, considering how much improved many of the Timbers' competitors have become in the offseason. But bet against the Rose City? Never.
William:
Buy. They were close last year and I firmly believe that the team has upgraded both it's defense and attack in the off season. The Timbers' opponents have upgraded as well, and the Timbers are facing one of the league's harder schedules, but the Potential is there to make a run at the MLS Cup.
Ryan:
Buy. This is probably the toughest one for me to say buy to. I look at the west and I see talented teams all with the possibility of making the playoffs. Portland has to be one of the top 5 teams. As of right now these are the top teams in the West: LA Galaxy, Seattle (I hate putting them here), RSL, FC Dallas, Portland, Colorado. Vancouver has improved and Chivas could surprise a lot of people. In the end I think Portland has improved in the right areas and teams like Colorado and Dallas are descending rather than ascending.
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Great Post
Boyd: Sell, but I think he forces opposing Ds to pay attention to him which leads to…
Kalif and the outside mids: buy, more opportunity becuase of that.
Jack: Sell, the season will be going the wrong way if he’s in the top 5 of goals on the team.
Perk: Buy, no doubt
Playoffs: Buy, If I had to guess the order of finish in the West it would be:
Gals
Sounders
RSL
Timbers
Dallas
Colorado
Chivas
San Jose
Vancouver
And take plenty of tissue paper so they can dry their eyes after the game.
Your not buying Vancouver?
I think they have improved on paper. I see San Jose being the cellar dweller this year.
Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.
Maybe a beer way to put it
Top third: Gals/Sounders/RSL
Middle third: Timbers/Dallas/Colorado
Bottom third: Chivas/San Jose/Vancouver
The relative rank in each third could be anywhere. I’m much more confident in that than above. Also what are the caps going to play, a 2-1-7?
And take plenty of tissue paper so they can dry their eyes after the game.
by ledjom on Feb 9, 2012 4:20 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
a beer..
a better, I can tell its the end of the day.
And take plenty of tissue paper so they can dry their eyes after the game.
Or the season is on your mind :)
Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.
RSL
At this point I don’t see RSL being one of the top three teams, and not just because they have one of the toughest schedules. We’ll see, though. I do think the top 3 won’t be nearly as far ahead of the rest of the pack in 2012 as they were last year.
When I write, I write for the Timbers. Contributing Editor of Stumptown Footy
by Andrew Wheeler on Feb 9, 2012 4:36 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
ugh!
now we have to talk about strength of schedule in soccer? what is the world coming to.
by #1 Leverage Fan on Feb 9, 2012 9:07 PM PST up reply actions
Hell in a handbasket, man
When I write, I write for the Timbers. Contributing Editor of Stumptown Footy
by Andrew Wheeler on Feb 9, 2012 9:27 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah
it does stink for sure.
The whole “Continental Nation” screws with all kinds of things!
"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)
this seems about right to me
"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)
They'll score
but they still don’t have a very good defense and meh midfield. I think they’ll win some games and be exciting and end up a few points short of the playoffs. Basically I see their season playing out similarly to the Timbers last year
+1 to that
Thanks for your views, guys. Really helps me see the forest through the trees since I don’t get to follow all the news every day. Keep it up!
You guys are just saying that
because you are my brothers :)
Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.
wow, that's a different kind of brotherly relationship from what i'm used to...
When I write, I write for the Timbers. Contributing Editor of Stumptown Footy
by Andrew Wheeler on Feb 9, 2012 5:01 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
It helps when back in 2004 we came together to win a 3v3 tournament.
It was the rec division, but hey!
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
You don't see
Holidays where I make fun of them for being bald and they make fun of me for being rounder than I used to be :)
Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.
Buy, Sell, Sell, Buy, Buy, Buy
Get 10+ goals each from Boyd and Perlaza (or whatever the primary combo is). 1.06ish GAA for a full year, 10+ clean sheets or just 9 like last year and Timbers will make the playoffs.
That's what she said.
Last year, Perlaza and Cooper were leading the league in...
Offsides. Is MLS especially known for center backs trying to push up to draw forwards offsides? Will that be a hurdle for someone like Boyd to overcome, given his reputation for ‘cherry picking’?
Good question
I don’t think a lot of his goals come from getting behind the defense. If the Timbers advance the ball down the flanks Boyd plops himself in the middle waiting to create chances on goal. That’s how I see it.
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
Yes
One sign that the team has improved this season is if we can slowly force our way down the pitch and build up plays. Too often our ‘offense’ was the long ball, which given Cooper’s tendencies did not work out to well. If we can pass the ball down the field and build up to shots and crosses and getting rebounds we will be a successful year. If our backs are simply blasting the ball down the pitch, not so much. This is where our ball control in the midfield though better passing, and less ‘long ball’, is going to be telling to our success this season. There were few times where the team had the patience to build and play ball control.
no
its known for slow thinking midfielders that play a through ball a spit second too late. most of cooper’s offsides last year were due to an extra touch/step being taken by the midfielder with the ball. plus, i dont think a high number of offsides is something to be particularly concerned about. offsides can happen for a number of reasons. chicarito will get called off 10 times in a row – not because he’s lazy or because the midfield is slow minded – but because he pressuring the back line and trying to time a run. then one time he gets it and boom..he’s on..goal.
by #1 Leverage Fan on Feb 9, 2012 9:13 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
yeah
my problem with cooper generally was he was just standing offsides, at least Perlaza’s tended to mostly be on mistimed runs….
There was one play where cooper was offsides, i could see the strike opportunity coming and I yelled get onside 3 times before the ball came to him and the flag went up. His offsides were just terrible…
"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)
I hope we get more goals from the midfielders, but...
I am not convinced that Kalif will even start, given the additions to the team. So, I do think that the midfield will be much improved, but I think that we now have more experienced players that might make Kalif coming off the bench as a spark later in games, and not a primary player.
Songo'o
If Songo’o is signed, Kalif heads to the bench. If Songo’o is not signed, Kalif will be fighting with Alexander.
how do you figure?
i would think kalif is ahead of zizzo and as we’ve discussed before wide mid does not suit nagbe best. there are a whole slew of ways spencer could go with this thing.
by #1 Leverage Fan on Feb 9, 2012 9:17 PM PST up reply actions
Hasn't Songo'o been playing on the right?
Don’t know why I think that, but if so, I think Kalif starts on the left. Nagbe is gonna be up top. Perlaza is the one who is gonna be on the outside looking in I reckon.
Come on Timbers
Oh we love you so
We looove you so
So come oooooon Timbers!
Down with Education!
Up with more Timbers! You could add yours this weekend Geoff and then it will be even better!
Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.
Buy/Sell
I’ll buy Boyd scoring 10+ sight unseen. I think a vulture up front is just what we need.
I’ll sell on Kalif against my wishes, because I would dearly love for him to score more than 5. I need some redemption for all the positive vibes I’ve been sending his way.
Selling Captain Jack. Last season had the feeling of a statistical anomaly.
I’ll buy the wingers combining for 10. Heck, Darlington may pick that up all by his lonesome :)
I’ll sell double digit shutouts. I need to see how the D actually plays first
Big buy on the playoffs. Of course we’ll make it!
What about Nagbe???
I see everyone discussing Boyd and Perlazza, Boyd and Dike, service from Zizzo, service from Kalif, service from Jack… Nothing about Nagbe’s contribution. Maybe because we don’t know where he’ll end up on the field. Recent articles suggest he wants to play up front, and it seems like Spenny wants to give him the chance to prove it. If he’s up front with Boyd he’ll either score, or get the ball to Boyd to score, no question. Where do you guys see Nagbe? I doubt he’ll spend much time on the wings…
Nagbe up top
I was thinking the same thing. The question is not where is Nagbe best suited to play. The question is what combination is going to lead to the most goals! IF…..IF we sign Songo’o, he will be starting over Kalif and paired with Nagbe on the wing, leaving Dike/Perlaza up top with Boyd. If Songo’o is signed, then I would like to see Nagbe up top with Boyd so Kalif and Songo’o can be on the field. If Songo’o is NOT signed, we should keep Nagbe on the wing to maximize having our best players on the pitch. That is what I am thinking. I can’t make a decision until Songo’o is signed or cut.
by Howry on Feb 9, 2012 6:26 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Alexander???
I’ve heard a few mentions of Alexander’s improvements over last season. If true, it could be him and Kalif out wide… freeing Nagbe to play up front.
Alexander???
Alexander was considered to be a National Level player before. He was put into the system too early last season. He is better than Kalif, but it all depends on what works best for the players. Alexander will be a big part of the Timbers success this season.
I agree
Alexander showed a ton of promise in the few minutes he got last year. Played a lot like Nagbe in the fact that he could actually possess the ball and pass under pressure without having to resort to booming it up the field. If he is out there with Nagbe on the other wing the Timbers then would have the ability to actually play possession and then use that to hit better crosses into the box for Boyd to score.
Contributing editor to Stumptown Footy the Portland Timbers SBN blog.
Possession
Possession, possession, possession… Yes.
yep
when Nagbe came on after his injury last season possession got better and helped the timbers a great deal
"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)
Everyone keeps talking about Nagbe up top, but I can’t see it. We have too many other guys at that position that need PT. Maybe that’s what reserve games are for.
by botanyjames on Feb 10, 2012 8:57 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
To be more precise, Spenny is telling Nagbe convince me first, then I'll put you up front
"This year he’s moved himself into more of a central role, ‘cause I sat and had a chat with him a couple of weeks ago and I said, ‘Where do you see yourself, which position do you enjoy playing more?’" explained Spencer. "And he said he enjoys playing forward, and I said, ‘Well if that’s the case then you’ve got to convince me, to play the position you want to play and more.’"
http://www.portlandtimbers.com/news/2012/02/portland-coach-expects-great-things-nagbe
Jag kom, jag såg, erövrade jag.
precisely!
yes, yes, but JS wouldn’t mention it if he wasn’t interested. Sounds like a challenge to me, trying to get Nagbe to nut up and take on the role, or stay in midfield where they had him most of last year.
My choices:
Boyd: A huge buy. I might even buy at 15 goals. He will get a goal in every other game he plays for us this year.
Kalif: A huge sell. His minutes will go down, his shooting accuracy cannot.
Cap’n Jack: Sell. In fact if he is then our team likely did not do very well.
Wide MFs: Buy. However, as many have written I hope Nagbe plays up top quite a bit this year leaving Sango’o/Alexander/Kalif/Zizzo when healthy/Wallace (in that order for me) in the wide spots.
Perkins: Buy. Same as Boyd I might even buy on 15.
Playoffs: Buy. I think we end up 3rd or 4th in Western Conf…I would love 3rd ahead of Seattle (behind Gal and RSL). Dallas and Colorado will get worse and we should stay above SJ/Chivas/Vancouver. In my ideal world I would love to see Vancouver get that 5th spot above Col and Dal.
Going to have to sell on 15 shutouts
Considering that the record is 16 and the second place spot is 14.
Better? Yeah. Record breaking, sadly no.
Contributing Editor for Stumptown Footy
by William Conwell on Feb 9, 2012 10:43 PM PST up reply actions
I say we will get 17 then!!
:)
"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)
what do we know about
when Boyd arrives? Is he in LA yet?
What are the issues with signing Songo’o? Is he going to be expensive?
by botanyjames on Feb 10, 2012 6:56 AM PST via mobile reply actions
No Boyd yet
The word now is that he won’t likely join the team until the very end of their LA camp. They do have him working on fitness while training with one of his former teams in Scotland, Kilmarnock, so that should help him hit the ground running when he arrives. Considering how late he’s joining the team, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t start in the first couple of regular season matches (although he will at the very least make appearances as a sub in those matches).
On Songo’o, I really don’t know. My guess is they’ll wait until the end of February to make announcements on the final roster spots.
When I write, I write for the Timbers. Contributing Editor of Stumptown Footy
by Andrew Wheeler on Feb 10, 2012 9:13 AM PST up reply actions
Song'o
You guys seem to be saying that Song’o will start and be one of our best in mf. I there a reason we wouldn’t sign him or that we haven’t yet? I really don’t know who this guy is.
by Jblaze on Feb 10, 2012 9:16 AM PST via mobile reply actions
International spot.
That’d be the only reason I think we pass on him is that it’d put us right at the limit for international spots. That’s just my opinion though.
I have a good understanding on most leagues CBA but the MLS is on a whole other level. Their CBA is the most convoluted and confusing CBA. I think we should be able to sign whomever we want really. I also hope that they significantly increase the salary cap as the league improves and grows
My impression...
From Spencer’s comments is that the club is still negotiating on salary.
Contributing Editor for Stumptown Footy
by William Conwell on Feb 10, 2012 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
This
He’s ex Barcelona, ex EPL, he could be unfortunately out of our salary range. He’s not coming in and making 42k this year, and while we do have some flexibility left, if he’s wanting 200k+ (frankly, very possible, especially given how well he’s showing here), that might be just too big of bullet to bite.
An international slot is a pretty easy fix. Its pretty well established you can buy one from another team for a going price, and with Valencia out, we should already have an extra.
and stop taking chip shots at the far corner.
while I agree with that sentiment completely in reagrds to kaliff, a little part of me really wants to see him get one of those in, if it ever works it will be a beautiful thing…
"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)
You can watch it all day
And another great call from John Strong, possibly even better than “Ohhhh! That’s absolutely brilliant! And the Timbers are right back in it!”
When I write, I write for the Timbers. Contributing Editor of Stumptown Footy
by Andrew Wheeler on Feb 10, 2012 10:02 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Very much hoping
I get to revise this sometime this year.
When I write, I write for the Timbers. Contributing Editor of Stumptown Footy
by Andrew Wheeler on Feb 10, 2012 10:08 AM PST up reply actions
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
That’s the goal, but I’ll wait to see them play first.
Oklahoma State will beat LSU in the National Title game by more than 7 points.
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