Five of the Cascadia Cup's nine games have now been played and the Timbers are on top of the standings. A recent article by Sounder at Heart listed Portland's odds of winning at 92% thanks to a series of simulations they ran predicting the remainder of the season.
The current table from the Cascadia Cup website:
After the jump I am just going to give a breakdown of the remaining possible outcomes for the cup.
- Seattle at Portland
- Seattle at Vancouver
- Portland at Seattle
- Portland at Vancouver
According to my breakdown, 60 of the possible 81 outcomes of the four remaining games result in a Timbers win either outright or by the first tiebreaker: head to head points (74%). Five of the possible outcomes give Portland the chance to win on goal differential. Vancouver cannot win outright, but could come out on top due to goal differential in 3 scenarios.
However, if the Timbers fail to win at home against Seattle the number of outcomes in which the Timbers win the Cascadia Cup is 33 out of 54 (61%).
If they lose to Seattle at home the number of outcomes for the Timbers to win the Cascadia Cup is 12 out of 27 (44%) and if they tie it is 21 of 27 (77%). Of course if the Timbers win against Seattle they lock up the Cascadia Cup (100%).
All of this doesn't really take a lot of things into consideration but it does paint a pretty clear picture: the Timbers need to take at least a point off of Seattle or the whole thing will be thrown wide open.