FanPost

MLS ratings as of October 13, plus updated playoff probabilities.

With most teams having two games to play, none have clinched a playoff spot in the West! Seattle continues their slide in the West, as does Montreal in the East. The home field advantage has slipped back down to about 95 points.

Team Rank Games Won Tied Lost Rating SE Last Rating Last Rank
Portland 1 32 13 14 5 1596 102 1591 1
Real Salt Lake 2 32 15 7 10 1566 104 1568 3
Seattle 3 32 15 6 11 1553 103 1576 2
Colorado 4 32 13 9 10 1545 103 1556 4
New York 5 32 15 8 9 1543 103 1544 5
Sporting KC 6 32 15 7 10 1542 104 1536 7
LA Galaxy 7 31 14 6 11 1538 104 1539 6
San Jose 8 32 13 8 11 1527 103 1520 10
Vancouver 10 32 12 9 11 1524 103 1511 12
Houston 10 32 13 9 10 1524 103 1527 8
Montreal 11 31 13 7 11 1511 104 1525 9
Chicago 12 32 13 7 12 1509 103 1495 14
FC Dallas 13 32 10 11 11 1507 102 1519 11
Philadelphia 14 32 12 10 10 1501 103 1507 13
New England 15 32 12 9 11 1500 103 1486 15
Columbus 16 32 12 5 15 1462 104 1461 16
Chivas USA 17 32 6 8 18 1393 104 1394 17
Toronto FC 18 32 5 11 16 1376 103 1374 18
D.C. United 19 32 3 7 22 1283 106 1271 19

Now for the playoff probabilities:

Probabilities of finishing in the top 5, based on a simulation (10000 trials) using current ratings. Note that while the listed probabilities for Portland and RSL are both 1.00, that simply means that in all 10000 runs, those teams finished in the top 5. They have not in fact clinched playoff berths! Since the ratings are averaging across the whole season, and ignore issues like injuries and suspensions, there is considerable uncertainty in these predicted probabilities!

East West
Team Probability Team Probability
New York 1.00 Portland 1.00
Sporting KC 1.00 Real Salt Lake 1.00
Houston .967 Seattle .997
Montreal .781 LA Galaxy .883
Chicago .683 Colorado .756
Philadelphia .453 San Jose .382
New England .348 Vancouver .146
Columbus .004 FC Dallas .000
D.C. United .000 Chivas USA .000
Toronto FC .000

Alright guys, I don't believe I have to say this but, just in case, please do not submit anything racist, homophobic, sexist or otherwise not appropriate for even the younger Timbers fans.

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