FanPost

MLS Ratings as of Oct. 6, 2013, and updated playoff predictions.

As the season winds down, the home field advantage hovers around 100 rating points. While Portland sits at the top, there is still little separation. For example, one might ask why Portland's rating is essentially unchanged after drawing at Vancouver? The answer is home field advantage made the game a statistical tossup.

Team Rank Games Won Tied Lost Rating SE Last Rating Last Rank
Portland 1 31 12 14 5 1591 102 1589 1
Seattle 2 30 15 6 9 1576 104 1584 2
Real Salt Lake 3 32 15 7 10 1568 104 1575 3
Colorado 4 31 13 9 9 1556 104 1547 5
New York 5 32 15 8 9 1544 104 1552 4
LA Galaxy 6 31 14 6 11 1539 104 1534 6
Sporting KC 7 31 15 6 10 1536 104 1523 8
Houston 8 31 13 8 10 1527 103 1518 10
Montreal 9 30 13 7 10 1525 105 1534 7
San Jose 10 31 12 8 11 1520 103 1520 9
FC Dallas 11 31 10 11 10 1519 103 1512 11
Vancouver 12 31 11 9 11 1511 103 1511 12
Philadelphia 13 31 12 9 10 1507 103 1503 13
Chicago 14 31 12 7 12 1495 104 1487 14
New England 15 31 11 9 11 1486 104 1478 15
Columbus 16 32 12 5 15 1461 104 1474 16
Chivas USA 17 32 6 8 18 1394 104 1398 17
Toronto FC 18 32 5 11 16 1374 103 1379 18
D.C. United 19 31 3 6 22 1271 108 1281 19

Probabilities of finishing in the top 5, based on a simulation (10000 trials) using current ratings and rounded to 3 digits. Chicago in the East, and San Jose in the West are the best long-shots to sneak in if the current leaders falter. The final order is still very much up for grabs.

East West
Team Probability Team Probability
New York 1.00 Seattle 1.00
Sporting KC 1.00 Real Salt Lake 1.00
Houston .988 Portland .999
Montreal .964 LA Galaxy .928
Philadelphia .825 Colorado .908
Chicago .219 San Jose .208
New England 0.117 Vancouver .024
Columbus 0.011 FC Dallas .016
D.C. United 0.000 Chivas USA 0.000
Toronto FC 0.000
The simulation suggests that the Supporter's Shield race is wide open, with 5 serious contenders: Seattle, New York, KC leading, but RSL and Portland clearly in the mix..

Alright guys, I don't believe I have to say this but, just in case, please do not submit anything racist, homophobic, sexist or otherwise not appropriate for even the younger Timbers fans.

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