FanPost

Crystal Ball Predictions: 2013 Attendance

I did a similar post last year (see here), and I don't have a lot of time to do my predictive analysis and write out my reasoning this year. Check last year's guess for a more thorough treating of the predictions. If you have questions as to why I predicted UP or DOWN please ask in the comments and I'll get around to them with a more definitive answer. FYI, I will be flying in for the home opener and will most definitely be spending more time with family than on this website. First, let me sum up how close I was to the previous prediction.

My prediction and actual attendance:


Total Average
Predicted
5,987,791
18,538
Actual 6,074,729 18,807
% Difference 1.14% 1.14%

Not bad, eh?

Team by Team Analysis (in brief)

Chicago Fire. UP.

Chivas USA. HOLD.

Colorado Rapids. UP. Neat jerseys.

Columbus Crew. DOWN, but slightly.

FC Dallas. UP, continuing a good trend.

D.C. United. UP, only because they have only two mid-week home games. Last year they had six, and several times had three home games in eight days.

Houston Dynamo. UP, slightly.

Sporting Kansas City. HOLD. They're already above capacity as an average.

LA Galaxy. UP. Sans Beckham? Yes.

Montreal Impact. DOWN. Same Olympic Stadium success? Non.

New England Revolution. DOWN. Nothing to hold them up.

New York Red Bulls. UP.

Philadelphia Union. DOWN.

Portland Timbers. UP, slightly. By like 300 seats is my guess.

Real Salt Lake. DOWN, slightly. Just a hunch.

San Jose Earthquakes. HOLD. One more year before a new stadium.

Seattle Sounders FC. HOLD, for these reasons.

Toronto FC. DOWN.

Vancouver Whitecaps. DOWN, slightly.

Prediction

Carnac_medium

via upload.wikimedia.org

The big prediction:


Total Average
Predicted
6,133,447
18,989


Summary

I expect much of the same. Only a mere 0.96% increase predicted from me. I'm going real conservative. The average is going to be very useful this year because we can actually compare the two years on equal terms (which hasn't happened since 2005[?]) such as number of matches and teams. However, several teams have been making conscious efforts to increase the number of season ticket holders. Notably SKC has above 14,000 season tickets. Nearly every team is working hard on that and is succeeding but also teams are getting settled into new stadiums. Yeah, I rushed this post and my thoughts on it. Here's to MLS attendance success!

And to add space, here is a glance back at last year with a comparison to 2011.

2012 Attendance by Team

Team Played Current Last Diff Alltime Diff
Chicago 17 16409 14273 15.0% 15529 5.7%
Chivas USA 17 13056 14830 -12.0% 15863 -17.7%
Colorado 17 15175 14838 2.3% 13971 8.6%
Columbus 17 14397 12185 18.2% 15238 -5.5%
DC United 17 13846 15196 -8.9% 17194 -19.5%
FC Dallas 17 14199 12861 10.4% 12203 16.4%
Houston 17 21015 17694 18.8% 17327 21.3%
Los Angeles 17 23136 23335 -0.9% 22067 4.8%
Montréal 17 22722 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
New England 17 14001 13222 5.9% 15610 -10.3%
Philadelphia 17 18053 18258 -1.1% 18724 -3.6%
Portland 17 20438 18827 8.6% 18827 8.6%
Red Bull NY 17 18281 19691 -7.2% 17159 6.5%
Real Salt Lake 17 19087 17594 8.5% 16828 13.4%
San Jose 17 13293 11858 12.1% 12820 3.7%
Seattle 17 43144 38495 12.1% 35329 22.1%
Sporting KC 17 19404 17810 9.0% 11386 70.4%
Toronto FC 17 18155 20267 -10.4% 20264 -10.4%
Vancouver 17 19475 20412 -4.6% 20412 -4.6%
Overall - 18807 17869 5.2% 15739 19.5%

AND VOTE!

Alright guys, I don't believe I have to say this but, just in case, please do not submit anything racist, homophobic, sexist or otherwise not appropriate for even the younger Timbers fans.

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