I did a similar post last year (see here), and I don't have a lot of time to do my predictive analysis and write out my reasoning this year. Check last year's guess for a more thorough treating of the predictions. If you have questions as to why I predicted UP or DOWN please ask in the comments and I'll get around to them with a more definitive answer. FYI, I will be flying in for the home opener and will most definitely be spending more time with family than on this website. First, let me sum up how close I was to the previous prediction.
My prediction and actual attendance:
Not bad, eh?
Team by Team Analysis (in brief)
Chicago Fire. UP.
Chivas USA. HOLD.
Columbus Crew. DOWN, but slightly.
FC Dallas. UP, continuing a good trend.
D.C. United. UP, only because they have only two mid-week home games. Last year they had six, and several times had three home games in eight days.
Houston Dynamo. UP, slightly.
Sporting Kansas City. HOLD. They're already above capacity as an average.
LA Galaxy. UP. Sans Beckham? Yes.
Montreal Impact. DOWN. Same Olympic Stadium success? Non.
New England Revolution. DOWN. Nothing to hold them up.
New York Red Bulls. UP.
Philadelphia Union. DOWN.
Portland Timbers. UP, slightly. By like 300 seats is my guess.
Real Salt Lake. DOWN, slightly. Just a hunch.
San Jose Earthquakes. HOLD. One more year before a new stadium.
Toronto FC. DOWN.
Vancouver Whitecaps. DOWN, slightly.
The big prediction:
I expect much of the same. Only a mere 0.96% increase predicted from me. I'm going real conservative. The average is going to be very useful this year because we can actually compare the two years on equal terms (which hasn't happened since 2005[?]) such as number of matches and teams. However, several teams have been making conscious efforts to increase the number of season ticket holders. Notably SKC has above 14,000 season tickets. Nearly every team is working hard on that and is succeeding but also teams are getting settled into new stadiums. Yeah, I rushed this post and my thoughts on it. Here's to MLS attendance success!
And to add space, here is a glance back at last year with a comparison to 2011.
2012 Attendance by Team
|Red Bull NY||17||18281||19691||-7.2%||17159||6.5%
|Real Salt Lake||17||19087||17594||8.5%||16828||13.4%