FanPost

Something for the Numbers Nerds: MLS Team Performance Ratings




I used to publish ratings for college soccer teams. As a
Timber's Army regular, I decided it was time to rate MLS teams
using the same system. For those who know the United States
Chess Federation rating system (based on the Elo system), this
is vaguely similar but incorporates home field advantage.

A rating difference of 100 points corresponds (ignoring ties) to an estimated odds of 2:1 for the stronger team, 200 points to 4:1 odds, and 300 points to 8:1 odds. Add the 75 point home field advantage to the rating of the home team before computing the difference. The table includes the estimated ratings, the standard error of the estimates, and the average rating of the opponents to date.

MLS Ratings as of May 13, 2013

Average Home field advantage: 75 Rating Points.

Team Rank G Won Tied Lost Rating SE Opp.mean
FC Dallas 1 11 7 3 1 1664 126 1485
Montreal 2 10 6 2 2 1635 130 1497
Portland 3 11 4 6 1 1616 119 1538
Houston 4 11 6 2 3 1561 125 1465
New York 5 13 6 3 4 1543 122 1464
Sporting KC 6 12 6 2 4 1542 124 1485
Colorado 7 11 4 3 4 1540 122 1520
Seattle 8 9 3 3 3 1530 126 1534
LA Galaxy 9 9 4 2 3 1523 129 1504
Real Salt Lake 10 12 5 2 5 1522 123 1506
Vancouver 11 10 3 3 4 1493 124 1524
Philadelphia 12 10 4 3 3 1492 124 1453
San Jose 13 12 3 5 4 1490 117 1528
New England 14 10 2 4 4 1474 123 1529
Chivas USA 15 10 3 2 5 1446 126 1516
Columbus 16 10 3 3 4 1423 125 1446
Toronto FC 17 10 1 4 5 1421 122 1548
Chicago 18 9 2 1 6 1343 136 1515
D.C. United 19 10 1 1 8 1241 143 1527

Alright guys, I don't believe I have to say this but, just in case, please do not submit anything racist, homophobic, sexist or otherwise not appropriate for even the younger Timbers fans.

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