FanPost

Week 17 MLS Predictions for the Weekend Fixtures

Here are the picks for Week 17 of MLS weekend action. As reminder of the numbers you see below, the first set of numbers are the odds for each game based on pdxskeptic's system with the odds on the favorite team's line. Note: I have changed the home field advantage to 80 points as indicated by pdxskeptic in his latest post. In addition, I have added Sagarin's calculated goal differential for the game in the same box. Then the forecast score from whoscored.com is in the next column. Finally, my prediction is listed.

At the end of the weekend, I score each of the methods. Here are the scores for the first two weeks:

Score to date (after 2.5 weeks):
MLS Ratings: 7-9+6=+4
Whoscored: 7-9+10=+8
Harra: 0-5+6=+1

Now to this weekend's games:

Teams

Odds/Sag PD

WS Pick

Harra's Pick

DC

(-3 - wrong winner)

0 (-3 - wrong winner)

0 (-3 - wrong winner)

SJ

3:1

0.14 goals

1

2

What is interesting here is that SJ is clearly the favorite yet Sagarin has the goal differential at only .14 goals. I think SJ will do better than that and finally start finding the back of the net again. Final: DC 1 - SJ 0. A penalty kick for DC United was all they needed with a depleted San Jose squad. None of the pundits got this one right.

Teams

Odds/Sag PD

WS Pick

Harra's Pick

CLB

3:1

0.67 goals

2

1

CHI

(-3 - wrong winner)

1 (-3 - wrong winner)

0 (-3 - wrong winner)

Columbus seems to be finding themselves of late. Chicago needs to prove they can take their new found success on the road. We don't think they will. Final: CLB 1 - CHI 2. The Chicago Fire are a new team with Magee. This one went against the numbers, but this is a different team now.

Teams

Odds/Sag PD

WS Pick

Harra's Pick

DAL

4:1

0.68 goals

1

2

SKC

(-1 wrong outcome)

2 (-1 wrong outcome)

1 (-1 wrong outcome)

Dallas has stumbled of late. To the point that whoscored.com is picking Sporting Kansas City in an upset. I think Dallas regains their form at home and takes the 3 points. Final: DAL 2 - SKC 2. I differed with whoscored.com on this game. As it turns out, we were both wrong. Sporting was able to go on the road and earn a point (and none of us are disappointed).

Teams

Odds/Sag PD

WS Pick

Harra's Pick

HOU

4:1

1.04 goals

2

2

TOR

(-1 wrong outcome)

0 (-1 wrong outcome)

1 (-1 wrong outcome)

Toronto picked up a big road win against DC United recently and Houston has dropped two at home after a very long unbeaten home streak. The world returns to normal this weekend with a Houston win. Final HOU 0 - TOR 0. Don't tell me you saw this one coming. Houston's offense appears to have gone on holiday. Toronto never had one.

Teams

Odds/Sag PD

WS Pick

Harra's Pick

RSL

3:2 (-1 wrong outcome)

0.36 goals

2 (+3 correct pick)

1 (-1 wrong outcome)

SEA

1

1

This is a very tight match-up with home field making a slight difference in the numbers on this one. Both teams are playing well at this point. I see both teams kissing their sister in this game. Final RSL 2 - SEA 0. I really expected more out of the Flounders. I am not sure why, though. It is hard to tell which Flounders team is going to show up on a given weekend. Real Salt Lake is coming together and is now a force to contend with.

Teams

Odds/Sag PD

WS Pick

Harra's Pick

PHI

1:1 (-1 wrong outcome )

0.33 goals

1 (-3 wrong winner)

1 (-1 wrong outcome)

NY

2

1

Whoscored.com is going against the numbers and picking the road team in this match. I don't see them getting over the top but do have them earning a point on the road. Final PHI 3 - NY 0. Conor Casey lead The Union with two goals as Philadelphia pulled up into a second place tie in the easy with the New York Red Bulls.

Teams

Odds/Sag PD

WS Pick

Harra's Pick

POR

4:1 (+3 correct pick)

1.08 goals

2 (+3 correct pick)

2 (+3 correct pick)

COL

1

1

Both teams had a mid-week match, but the more weary legs likely belong to the Timbers as they are coming to the end of a grueling stretch in the schedule. Pride and the Timbers Army will help carry the home team to victory. Final POR 3 - COL 0. And wasn't a thing of beauty? Welcome back Rodney F. Wallace. And thankfully, I finally got a pick right this weekend.

Teams

Odds/Sag PD

WS Pick

Harra's Pick

CHV


0
0

LA

2:1 (+3 correct pick)

0.70 Goals

2 (+3 correct pick)

3 (+3 correct pick)

Adding this one late, it was on the second page of my notes. Well, you have the defending champions versus a team that is, quite frankly, a mess. Perhaps this derby match might be what Chivas needs...who am I kidding? The Gals in a rout. Final CHV 0 - LA 1. The best part of my weekend is that I did not have to watch this match. Apparently the Gals did not want to be there either.

I will provide a report card after the games are in the books. What are your picks?

Score to date (after 3.0 weeks):
MLS Ratings: 7-9+6-4=0
Whoscored: 7-9+10-2=+6
Harra: 0-5+6-4=-3

Usual caveat: Use this information for entertainment purposes. You don't want to take gambling advice from a guy who hates to play anything riskier than penny machines while in Vegas.

Alright guys, I don't believe I have to say this but, just in case, please do not submit anything racist, homophobic, sexist or otherwise not appropriate for even the younger Timbers fans.

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