FanPost

Playoff predictions

I ran a simple-minded simulation, 10000 trials. Based on current ratings, I computed the probabilities of outcomes (W,L,T) for each match. I then accumulated the points, added to current points, and computed the proportion of trials for which each team placed in the top 5 of it's conference. I did not worry about the fine print - what happens when there is a tie for 5th place. I did not do the more sophisticated simulation of recomputing the ratings after each week's matches - that would take a long time to run! This was blazing fast. So it's a little crude, but it should be pretty close to a more compulsively executed simulation. Here they are, to three significant digits:

East West
New York 0.998 Seattle 0.999
Montreal 0.996 Real Salt Lake 0.995
Sporting KC 0.994 LA Galaxy 0.942
Houston 0.874 Portland 0.922
Chicago 0.585 Colorado 0.845
Philadelphia 0.381 FC Dallas 0.332
New England 0.298 Vancouver 0.066
Columbus 0.027 San Jose 0.027
D.C. United 0.000 Chivas USA 0.000
Toronto FC 0.000

Alright guys, I don't believe I have to say this but, just in case, please do not submit anything racist, homophobic, sexist or otherwise not appropriate for even the younger Timbers fans.

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