FanPost

MLS Playoff prediction updates.

Probabilities of finishing in the top 5, based on a simulation (10000 trials) using current ratings. In the east, Columbus is almost out of the running, DC and Toronto are. In the west, Chivas is hopeless, while San Jose still has faint hopes. 5th place in the east looks like a three-way horse-race. In the west, it looks like the main question is who's in 4th and 5th.

East West
Team Probability Team Probability
New York .9999 Seattle .999
Sporting KC .9995 Real Salt Lake .978
Montreal .982 Portland .976
Houston .944 LA Galaxy .917
Chicago .400 Colorado .723
Philadelphia .399 Vancouver .218
New England 0.376 FC Dallas .207
Columbus 0.058 San Jose .132
D.C. United 0.000 Chivas USA 0.000
Toronto FC 0.000

Based on the same simulation, the average final points. While the average points for Portland are slightly higher than for RSL, the standard deviation is larger, indicating greater uncertainty in the final total.

East West
Team Avg Points Team Avg Points
New York 56.9 Seattle 59.4
Sporting KC 56.1 Portland 56.6
Montreal 53.5 Real Salt Lake 54.3
Houston 51.2 LA Galaxy 52.7
Philadelphia 46.2 Colorado 50.6
Chicago 46.2 FC Dallas 47.4
New England 46.0 Vancouver 47.3
Columbus 42.6 San Jose 46.5
Toronto FC 27.3 Chivas USA 29.2
D.C. United 18.4

Alright guys, I don't believe I have to say this but, just in case, please do not submit anything racist, homophobic, sexist or otherwise not appropriate for even the younger Timbers fans.

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