FanPost

MLS ratings as of September 30, plus playoff predictions

As the end of season and playoffs loom, the pack is very tightly bunched at the top, with the usual stragglers falling off the bottom. The top 15 teams differ by barely as much as the home field advantage (around 100 rating points), or for that matter, the standard errors of the ratings! This suggests that seeding for home field advantage in the playoffs will be an important factor.

Team Rank Games Won Tied Lost Rating SE Last Rating Last Rank
Portland 1 30 12 13 5 1589 103 1586 2
Seattle 2 29 15 6 8 1584 105 1593 1
Real Salt Lake 3 31 15 6 10 1575 104 1564 3
New York 4 31 15 7 9 1552 104 1542 6
Colorado 5 30 12 9 9 1547 104 1549 4
Montreal 6 29 13 7 9 1534 105 1527 9
LA Galaxy 6 30 13 6 11 1534 104 1544 5
Sporting KC 8 30 14 6 10 1523 105 1538 7
San Jose 9 31 12 8 11 1520 103 1512 12
Houston 10 30 12 8 10 1518 104 1513 11
FC Dallas 11 30 10 10 10 1512 103 1528 8
Vancouver 12 30 11 8 11 1511 104 1526 10
Philadelphia 13 30 11 9 10 1503 104 1487 14
Chicago 14 30 11 7 12 1487 104 1488 13
New England 15 30 11 8 11 1478 104 1480 15
Columbus 16 31 12 5 14 1474 104 1455 16
Chivas USA 17 31 6 8 17 1398 104 1411 17
Toronto FC 18 31 5 11 15 1379 103 1371 18
D.C. United 19 30 3 6 21 1281 108 1287 19

Probabilities of finishing in the top 5, based on a simulation (10000 trials) using current ratings. The race for the fifth spot in the East seems to have clarified a little, with Philly having the advantage. In the West, San Jose keeps their hopes alive.

East West
Team Probability Team Probability
New York 1.000 Seattle 1.000
Sporting KC 0.997 Real Salt Lake 1.000
Montreal 0.985 Portland 0.999
Houston 0.942 LA Galaxy 0.890
Philadelphia 0.748 Colorado 0.767
Chicago 0.168 San Jose 0.347
Columbus 0.146 Vancouver 0.079
New England 0.144 FC Dallas 0.041
Toronto FC 0.000 Chivas USA 0.000
D.C. United 0.000

Alright guys, I don't believe I have to say this but, just in case, please do not submit anything racist, homophobic, sexist or otherwise not appropriate for even the younger Timbers fans.

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