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Predicted Play-Off Probabilities as of 18 August.

I ran a simulation of the probabilities of finishing in the top 5 within each division, based on current ratings. I'll update periodically as the end of season draws near. I did 10000 trials, and have rounded the probability of finishing above the red line to 2 significant digits. You should interpret "1.00" as "close to certain", rather than as "absolutely certain".

Eastern Conference

Team Probability
Sporting KC 1.00
D.C. United 1.00
Toronto FC 0.99
Columbus 0.87
New York 0.50
New England 0.29
Philadelphia 0.26
Chicago 0.15
Houston 0.08
Montreal 0.00

Sporting KC, D.C. United, Toronto FC and Columbus look like strong favorites to make the playoffs in the East. The fifth slot appears to be open, with New York, New England and Philadelphia the main contenders, while Chicago still rates a mention. It looks like it may only take about 40 points to make the top 5 in the East.

Western Conference

Team Probability
Seattle 1.00
Real Salt Lake 1.00
LA Galaxy 0.99
FC Dallas 0.98
Vancouver 0.85
Portland 0.18
Colorado 0.05
San Jose 0.02
Chivas USA 0.00

In the West, it looks almost settled: Seattle, Real Salt Lake, LA Galaxy, FC Dallas and Vancouver are the clear favorites, with Portland waiting in the wings for someone to drop points. It appears that Portland will need at least 45 points to sneak in. Of course, wins against Vancouver are most significant.

This FanPost was written by a Stumptown Footy community member and does not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the site or its staff.

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