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Which Team Should the Timbers Hope to Play on the Road in the Playoffs?

We've all said that Portland's postseason will last for 90 minutes if they can't get a result on the road. That's basically true, except that it's not, since a draw would earn the Timbers a shootout, where anything could happen. Even if Portland can't win at Colorado or Vancouver, after getting crushed by the worst team in the West this weekend, they could conceivably make the playoffs. If they do, there's always a chance, so who would we prefer to face? Let's break down the road results so far:

Portland's 2016 Road Results:

3/13: SJ 2-1 PTFC

4/3: Orlando 4-1 PTFC

4/10: LAG 1-1 PTFC*

4/27: NE 1-1 PTFC

5/7: VAN 2-1 PTFC

5/11: FCD 2-1 PTFC*

5/28: CHI 1-1 PTFC

6/18: RSL 2-2 PTFC*

7/4 COL 0-0 PTFC*

7/10: NYRB 0-0 PTFC*

8/7: SKC 1-0 PTFC*

8/13: DC 2-0 PTFC*

8/21: SEA 3-1 PTFC

9/3: FCD 3-1 PTFC*

9/24: HOU 3-1 PTFC

10/1: COL ??? PTFC

10/23: VAN ??? PTFC

0 wins, 9 losses, 6 ties

Away Overall:

GS: 12 (0.8/game)

GA: 27 (1.8/game)

Home Overall:

GS: 34 (2.13/game)

GA: 21 (1.31/game)

Away (Mar - June):

GS: 9 (1.13/game)

GA: 15 (1.88/game)

0 wins, 4 losses, 4 ties

Away (July - September)

GS: 3 (0.43/game)

GA: 12 (1.71/game)

0 wins, 5 losses, 2 ties

Against Playoff Teams:

0 wins, 4 losses, 4 ties

GS: 5 (0.63/game)

GA: 11 (1.38/game)

Against Non-Playoff Teams:

0 wins, 5 losses, 2 ties

Keep in mind that both Seattle and New England fall into this category currently.

GS: 7 (1.0/game)

GA: 16 (2.29/game)

What can we say about the teams the Timbers tied?

Amazingly, the Timbers have a better record and a better goal differential against playoff teams than they do the bottom feeders, which is a very small sliver of light in a very darkened sky. The problem, though, is that all of those "positive" results came before mid July, and the Timbers have lost three straight games against playoff teams since then by a combined score of 6-1. Since I’m allowed to cherry pick, let’s also do this: remove games played south of the 34th parallel N (meaning games against Dallas, Houston, and Orlando). I’d like to argue those poor games are a result of long travel, but the Timbers tied games in New York and Boston. I’d also like to argue that those games were played in extreme temperatures, but only the September 3 game against Dallas was even above 80 degrees. The reality is, however, that the Timbers lost all four of those games by a combined score of 12-4. Excluding those southern games, the Timbers have only lost two multi-goals and still have six ties. Year after year, there is something about playing games in Texas that haunts the Timbers, and the Timbers did not fare well in their first MLS game in Florida.

Western Conference: The LA Galaxy and Real Salt Lake have each earned ties in seven home games this season, which is tied for the most home ties in the Western Conference. While Vancouver and San Jose have each tied six times at home, Colorado is not far behind at five. You could fairly say that the Timbers have had luck tying teams in the Western Conference who give up a lot of ties at home. Unfortunately, Houston also has given up seven ties, but the Timbers were crushed 3-1 in Houston.

Eastern Conference: Chicago, the worst team in the East, also has given up seven ties this season, so it’s not as surprising the Timbers could earn a tie there. But neither the New York Red Bulls nor the New England Revolution give up many ties at home. The 0-0 draw at the first-place Red Bulls may be the most impressive, as they are tied with the Timbers for the most points at home this season.

Which team do the Timbers want to play on the road in the playoffs?

This is an incomplete answer, as the Timbers have two remaining games against Colorado, and the Timbers’ performance in Denver on October 1 could change this answer. Today, though, it’s pretty clear the Timbers would like to finish in fifth place and play Real Salt Lake as the fourth-place team. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, the Timbers have already tied RSL at Rio Tinto, scoring two goals on June 18 — the only time this season the Timbers have scored more than one goal on the road. Second, RSL has the worst home goal differential (+8) of the potential playoff teams the Timbers could face. Third, RSL has tied seven home games, meaning nearly half of all their home games end in ties. And at this point, aren’t we all assuming the best-case scenario is a shootout? Fourth, the Timbers seem to have RSL’s psychological number this year. In three regular season games, RSL has received eight yellow cards, two red cards, and the disciplinary committed has handed out two more red cards after the games. Fifth, should the Timbers miraculously win this away game, a fifth-place finish leaves them the slim possibility of drawing Colorado as the second seed in the semifinals. The Timbers have already drawn once in Colorado, Colorado has scored a league-low 16 goals at home (but given up just five goals), and realistically, who wants to bet on goal differential if your choice is Colorado or FC Dallas?

While it is certainly possible Colorado and LA Galaxy could swap places in the standings, Colorado has played two fewer games than LAG and still has the same 48 points LAG does. For Colorado to finish in third place, it realistically means Portland is taking all six points in the two games against Colorado. If that happens, perhaps we start worrying less about whether Portland can get a playoff result on the road. At the same time, Portland did tie LAG 1-1 in Carson, CA on April 10. Back then, we might have thought that heroic. As we have seen, LAG has dropped seven ties at home this season, tied for most with RSL. It is certainly possible to go to LA and get a draw, and given their injuries, they are playing their home game at less than full strength. But they maintain a +14 goal differential at home and have scored 32 times at home (only Portland has more home goals), making a defensive game plan more difficult, especially over 120 minutes.

In the end, Portland should hope to play at Real Salt Lake.

This FanPost was written by a Stumptown Footy community member and does not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the site or its staff.

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