Stumptown Footy: FanPosts

Portland: Contender or Pretender

2013-06-18T01:19:40Z

It seems each year during the regular season at least one team steps up during the regular season to look like a playoff front runner, only to fade when the playoffs come. Last year was remarkable. Here were the top four teams on points at the end of last season:

San Jose (66)
Kansas City (63)
DC United (58)
New York (57)

Calling each of those teams a "Pretender" might be harsh, but only one of those teams (DC United) even won a playoff series. Instead it was the 8th (LA Galaxy) and 9th (Houston Dynamo) place teams competing in the title game. It can be difficult to predict playoff success based on MLS Regular Season performance.
Instead, you have to look under the covers a bit. Here are the cases for why Portland is a legitimate title contender this season, and corresponding counter cases for why they might still be a pretender - capable of making the playoffs, but not ready to do damage in them.

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CONTENDER CASE 1: THE ATTACK - The 2013 Timbers are a chance creating machine. Fueled by Valeri and Nagbe and a capable supporting cast, the Timbers create the 4th most chances per game in MLS. At 14.53 chances per game, the Timbers trail only Chicago, Real Salt Lake, and Kansas City in Shots per Game.

PRETENDER CASE 1: DEFENSE - Our goals against numbers are low. We currently concede 1.07 Goals per Game, good enough for 6th best defense in the league. But those of us who watch this team know our best defense is possession. Injuries to our central defense and vulnerable outside defenders mean the Timbers back line is vulnerable and prone to mistakes.

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CONTENDER CASE 2: GOALS - The Timbers lead the league in overall scoring (25 Goals) and goal differential (+9). And Portland is second only to Montreal in Goals scored per game, at 1.67. Perhaps most encouraging is that Portland has more multiple goal scorers than any other team in the league. So defenses will not be able to key on one player (take last year's Earthquakes, for example) and shut Portland down.

The Timbers are getting goals from the forwards, wide attackers, attacking midfielders, and even Will Johnson is stepping up to get a few of his own. It's true. You can't stop us. We are the Rose City. At least few teams have been able to so far, anyway.

PRETENDER CASE 2: EFFICIENCY - It's one thing to score in the regular season. It's another to score against the better defenses you will face in the playoffs. Bottom line is you get fewer chances in the playoffs, so you had better convert the chances you get. The Timbers are OK, but far from elite. Montreal only requires 7 shots to score a goal, leading the league in efficiency. We saw what they did to us with limited opportunities.

Currently the Timbers need 8.72 shots to get a goal, making us the 8th most efficient team in the league. As we saw against Dallas, the Timbers waste a lot of chances in front of goal. And our forwards' career scoring records don't exactly scream that this is an anomaly. In order to score, they need a lot of shots. A lot of shots they probably won't get in the playoffs.

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CONTENDER CASE 3: PLAYERS AND COACHES - No stats here, just my observations. The Timbers have what most MLS observers consider the best young coach in the league. Porter showed at Akron he is capable of taking good teams deep into tournaments, and capable of winnig it all.

We also have a well-rounded roster, with players all over the field having great seasons. Who is our MVP? Valeri can make a case. So could Nagbe. Maybe Ricketts is making the best case of all. Or is it one of our midfielders, Will Johnson and Diego Chara, who do the dirty work that make this team tick?

The Timbers are a case of a good coach having the right players to implement his system. When everything is firing, we can beat anyone.

PRETENDER CASE 3: STARS - Playoff time is star time. For the past two seasons, the playoffs meant it was time for Landon Donovan, David Beckham, and Robbie Keane to take over. Houston saw Brad Davis and Will Bruin rise to the occasion in the East. Seattle appears to be primed for a deep run, as much as it hurts to admit it. They have solid depth and the type of play makers who make the differene in the playoffs.

Who will step up for the Timbers? Or will the team continue to be the star?

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We are obviously a ways away from knowing whether we can yet truly contend. We have reasons to be excited. We have reasons to be cautious. Time will tell.

San Jose (66)
Kansas City (63)
DC United (58)
New York (57)

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The Timbers are a case of a good coach having the right players to implement his system. When everything is firing, we can beat anyone.

Who will step up for the Timbers? Or will the team continue to be the star?

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We are obviously a ways away from knowing whether we can yet truly contend. We have reasons to be excited. We have reasons to be cautious. Time will tell.

Timbers transactions this season

2013-06-17T18:50:01Z

After reading the transfer window article I realized that I cannot bring myself to doing the work I have to do at...well...work so in order not to do that here we go. I think this is mostly in chronological order. Dates are when announced publicly. Feel free to reply with your top 3 or 5 moves. Damn 12/3 and 1/10 were good days

11/19: Release Braun, Hogg and Renken

12/3: Timbers get Gallego and $$ for Kimura and 2013 2nd round superdraft pick

12/3: Timbers get Harrington for $$

12/3: Timbers get $$ for Brunner

12/3: Timbers release Palmer and Purdy

12/3: Timbers get W Johson for $$

12/6: Timbers sign Gleeson, RodWall and Kawulok to new contracts

12/6: Timbers pick up options on Bendik, Futty, Taylor, EA, KAH, ZIzzo, Dike, Richards

12/11: Timbers sign Mwanga to new contract

12/12: Timbers get R Johnson and Kocic for Bendik and $$

12/18: Timbers get Fehr by weighted lottery

1/8: Timbers sign Evans

1/10: Timbers acquire Valeri

1/16: Timbers get $$ for rights to Findley

1/17: Timbers draft DTG (signed on 2/6)

1/21: Timbers sign Miller

1/21: Timbers sign Valencia to multi-year contract

2/1: Timbers and Boyd "mutually part ways"

2/11: Timbers get $$ for EA

2/13: Timbers get Zemanski for $$ and rights to Bornstein

2/20: Timbers sign SIlvestre

2/21: Timbers sign Nanchoff

2/21: Timbers get 2nd round SuperDraft picks in 14 and 15 for rights to Reo-Corker

2/27: Timbers waive Songo'o and Taylor

2/28: Timbers get 1st round Superdraft pick in 15 for Mwanga

2/28: Timbers sign Piquionne

5/3: Timbers sign Kah

11/19: Release Braun, Hogg and Renken

12/3: Timbers get Gallego and $$ for Kimura and 2013 2nd round superdraft pick

12/3: Timbers get Harrington for $$

12/3: Timbers get $$ for Brunner

12/3: Timbers release Palmer and Purdy

12/3: Timbers get W Johson for $$

12/6: Timbers sign Gleeson, RodWall and Kawulok to new contracts

12/6: Timbers pick up options on Bendik, Futty, Taylor, EA, KAH, ZIzzo, Dike, Richards

12/11: Timbers sign Mwanga to new contract

12/12: Timbers get R Johnson and Kocic for Bendik and $$

12/18: Timbers get Fehr by weighted lottery

1/8: Timbers sign Evans

1/10: Timbers acquire Valeri

1/16: Timbers get $$ for rights to Findley

1/17: Timbers draft DTG (signed on 2/6)

1/21: Timbers sign Miller

1/21: Timbers sign Valencia to multi-year contract

2/1: Timbers and Boyd "mutually part ways"

2/11: Timbers get $$ for EA

2/13: Timbers get Zemanski for $$ and rights to Bornstein

2/20: Timbers sign SIlvestre

2/21: Timbers sign Nanchoff

2/21: Timbers get 2nd round SuperDraft picks in 14 and 15 for rights to Reo-Corker

2/27: Timbers waive Songo'o and Taylor

2/28: Timbers get 1st round Superdraft pick in 15 for Mwanga

2/28: Timbers sign Piquionne

5/3: Timbers sign Kah

Nagbe Magic Caps Wonderful Afternoon - Game Recap

2013-06-17T05:50:16Z

This game had it all. On a succulent Saturday afternoon in Portland, a national TV audience and a crowd at Jeld-Wen Field that knocked up the decibel level another few notches beyond any other fan-base in North America saw two of the best teams in MLS play an enthralling game.

We saw Portland play their game, controlling possession, dominating the ball with panache, composure and some fantastic skill. We saw FC Dallas strike fear into the hearts of Timbers fans with a sprightly attack and offense all over the field. We saw an astonishingly incompetent refereeing performance that let a headbutt go unpunished and made you ask yourself the question: I know refereeing is hard, but it can't be that hard, can it?

We saw a cursed Diego Chara punished by the soccer gods, three times failing to find the back of the net with golden opportunities, three times unable to celebrate his first goal in two years despite being one of the best Timbers on the field. We saw the two best goalkeepers in MLS make stop after stop and look down the field at the other guy and say, "Your turn."

We saw Frederic Piquionne thundered off the field by the crowd at Jeld-Wen for his effort. We saw some great play. It was a game that meant a lot going in, and a whole lot more going out. The whole 90 minutes, the stakes were raised. 18 shots for Dallas, seven on goal. 17 shots for Portland, eight on goal. It was scintillating stuff.

And none of it mattered.

Because the game was decided in one moment – one magical moment. Playing in front of his mother the day before Fathers' Day, Darlington Nagbe delivered a special goal in a split-second that decided the whole shebang.

What an afternoon. What a game. What a great time to be a Portland Timbers fan.

One look at the standings would have let you know coming in that this was a big game, all the more surprising, because Portland and Dallas were two of the Western Conference’s worst teams last year. Dallas revamped, keeping faith in head coach Schellas Hyndman, while Portland overhauled by bringing Caleb Porter and turning over their team.

The fruits of the two different approaches are Dallas in first place in the Western Conference, with Portland hot on their heels in third. Almost certainly, these two are playoff teams and contenders for a berth in MLS Cup. Just a few weeks ago, Portland played Dallas to a 1-1 draw in Frisco.

Dallas’ goal-scorer that day, Kenny Cooper, was unavalible to return to Portland for the first time in an opposition jersey, because of a family emergency (hoping all is okay for Kenny – a very good guy), and when Eric Hassli limped out of the game in the seventh minute, Dallas were left without a true striker.

But Dallas are a good team, and they weren’t knocked off their game. The match was entertaining in large part because both teams were able to play their game in the midst of each other. Portland controlled possession and probed with very good individual play, while Dallas hit quickly on counters and sprung on fortunate bounces to put the Timbers under pressure. Both teams were very solid defensively, and the net play from Ricketts and Fernandez respectively was sensational.

The game really came to life late in the first half when Piquionne was head-butted. After the ball went out of play for a Timbers corner, Piquionne, already jawing with defender Jair Benitez – who had kicked Piquionne in the shin after the ball went of play – stepped into Benitez’s face. Benitez, apparently not much of a conversationalist, butted Piquionne between the eyes.

Somehow, Benitez, who by the letter of the law should have been sent off, got away with the head-butt, and the incredulous Timbers lost focus, letting Dallas claw onto the front-foot at the end of the first half.

The teams were so evenly matched, you always felt it was going to take a special moment from a player to win the game. That special moment came from Darlington Nagbe in the 52nd minute.

After receiving the ball a few yards into the left side of the box from Kalif Alhassan, Nagbe, with his back to goal, turned and uncorked a drive into the top corner, a no-look shot that gave Fernandez no-chance. It was simply brilliant – one of the goals of the season in MLS.

It was the game of Nagbe. But it was almost the game of Chara. The Timbers diminutive midfield man isn’t a goal-scorer, in fact, it seems like Chara has developed a phobia of shooting in the last year. Against Dallas, Chara had three golden chances to break his duck.

The first was out of a goal-mouth scramble, the ball deflecting to Chara for a half-volley inside on the edge of the six-yard box. Chara had to shoot – and he did, striking the ball true, only to be denied by Fernandez, who sprawled back into the play from beyond the far-post for wonder save.

Chara’s second chance was a signature play of his, a lung-bursting run from midfield, a solo little train who can, but once again, Chara’s shot at the end of his run was tipped aside by Fernandez.

Chara’s third chance came off what would have been the assist of the season from Nagbe, who pulled the ball back onto his toe and popped it over the Dallas defense to send Chara into the clear. It was him and the goalkeeper, and Chara was never going to score. In the end, he just poked the ball wide.

The poor guy wanted to disappear into the ground. If anyone on the Timbers deserves a goal, it’s Chara, who has been so good for this team, throughout the last three years. It was the only bitterness to a sweet victory.

The Timbers held out in the end thanks in large part to Ricketts, who has been the best ‘keeper in the league this season. Ricketts hasn’t let in a home goal in five matches, and has a shutout streak of 216 minutes going. Ricketts has done it was a constantly changing center-back pairing – against Dallas, Futty was injured and had to be replaced with Andrew Jean-Baptiste, as Pah Moudu Kah had a shaky afternoon.

It was one of the Timbers’ best triumphs in their MLS history, delivered by an insanely likable team on a day in which everyone played their part.

Not least of all, the fans. They were absolutely sensational. Portland’s fans, and not just the Timbers Army, gave Piqiuonne a standing ovation when he was substituted, same with Kalif Alhassan, who was back to his best. The Army chanted Ricketts’ name at the end of the game, and created an atmosphere that is unlike many we have in sports today.

I’ve been to Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea play in London. It isn’t as loud, it isn’t as emotional, it isn’t as connected to its team as Jeld-Wen Field is to the Timbers. Portland supporters are awesome – and they should be getting playoff soccer in 2013. Portland isn’t leaving the top of the Western Conference any time soon.

And none of it mattered.

What an afternoon. What a game. What a great time to be a Portland Timbers fan.

The teams were so evenly matched, you always felt it was going to take a special moment from a player to win the game. That special moment came from Darlington Nagbe in the 52nd minute.

It was one of the Timbers’ best triumphs in their MLS history, delivered by an insanely likable team on a day in which everyone played their part.

MLS Ratings as of June 16th

2013-06-16T17:16:50Z

Wow, what a week.

I have dropped the opposition stats, since it is evening out a lot as the season matures. I have added the ratings and ranks from the previous week. Home field advantage is still about 75 points.

Team	Rank	Games	Won	Tied	Lost	Rating	SE	Last Rating	Last Rank
Montreal	1	13	8	2	3	1648	123	1685	1
Portland	2	15	6	8	1	1620	112	1606	3
FC Dallas	2	15	8	4	3	1620	115	1640	2
Seattle	4	13	6	3	4	1578	117	1579	4
Real Salt Lake	5	16	8	3	5	1559	116	1561	5
Vancouver	6	14	5	4	5	1526	115	1503	10
New York	6	16	7	4	5	1526	115	1527	7
Houston	8	14	6	4	4	1525	116	1523	8
Colorado	8	15	5	5	5	1525	114	1548	6
LA Galaxy	10	14	6	2	6	1501	118	1501	11
Philadelphia	11	15	6	4	5	1496	115	1493	12
New England	12	15	5	5	5	1494	114	1512	9
San Jose	13	16	4	6	6	1493	111	1466	14
Sporting KC	14	15	6	4	5	1487	116	1493	13
Columbus	15	15	5	5	5	1485	114	1456	15
Chicago	16	13	3	3	7	1400	120	1398	16
Toronto FC	17	14	2	5	7	1388	115	1364	18
Chivas USA	18	13	3	2	8	1378	122	1372	17
D.C. United	19	15	1	3	11	1252	123	1274	19

Wow, what a week.

I have dropped the opposition stats, since it is evening out a lot as the season matures. I have added the ratings and ranks from the previous week. Home field advantage is still about 75 points.

Team	Rank	Games	Won	Tied	Lost	Rating	SE	Last Rating	Last Rank
Montreal	1	13	8	2	3	1648	123	1685	1
Portland	2	15	6	8	1	1620	112	1606	3
FC Dallas	2	15	8	4	3	1620	115	1640	2
Seattle	4	13	6	3	4	1578	117	1579	4
Real Salt Lake	5	16	8	3	5	1559	116	1561	5
Vancouver	6	14	5	4	5	1526	115	1503	10
New York	6	16	7	4	5	1526	115	1527	7
Houston	8	14	6	4	4	1525	116	1523	8
Colorado	8	15	5	5	5	1525	114	1548	6
LA Galaxy	10	14	6	2	6	1501	118	1501	11
Philadelphia	11	15	6	4	5	1496	115	1493	12
New England	12	15	5	5	5	1494	114	1512	9
San Jose	13	16	4	6	6	1493	111	1466	14
Sporting KC	14	15	6	4	5	1487	116	1493	13
Columbus	15	15	5	5	5	1485	114	1456	15
Chicago	16	13	3	3	7	1400	120	1398	16
Toronto FC	17	14	2	5	7	1388	115	1364	18
Chivas USA	18	13	3	2	8	1378	122	1372	17
D.C. United	19	15	1	3	11	1252	123	1274	19

Week 16 MLS Predictions

2013-06-15T01:58:11Z

Here are the picks for Week 16 of MLS action. As reminder of the numbers you see below, the first set of numbers are the odds for each game based on pdxskeptic's system with the odds on the favorite team's line. In addition, I have added Sagarin's calculated goal differential for the game in the same box. Then the forecast score from whoscored.com is in the next column. Finally, my prediction is listed.

At the end of the weekend, I score each of the methods. Here are the scores from last weekend:

Score to date (after one week):

MLS Ratings: 7

Whoscored: 7

Harra: 0

Now to this week's games:

Teams	Odds/Sag PD	WS Pick	Harra's Pick

POR	1:1 (-1 wrong outcome) .47 goals	1 (-1 wrong outcome)	3 (+3 correct winner)
DAL		1	2

Biggest game of the week and rightfully will be the ESPN match of the week. Dallas likes to play the counter attack and Portland likes its possession with a purpose. Both teams will get to play their style of football. I expect lots of action and plenty of goals, just one more goal for the Timbers than for the boys from Texas. Final: POR 1 - DAL 0 (it felt like a 3-2 game, however).

Teams	Odds/Sag PD	WS Pick	Harra's Pick

DC	1:1 (-1 wrong outcome)	1	2
TOR	.05 goals	1 (-1 wrong outcome)	2 (-1 wrong outcome)

Being what the stats say will be the most competitive match of the weekend is about the only thing this game has going for it. These two teams are struggling right now to find any traction. Both offenses are so bad at finishing, it would be easy to pick a nil-nil score. However, the defenses are both inept as well, so I am going with the breakout score of 2-2. Final DC 1 - TOR 2 (an own goal was the difference in this one).

Interesting note, pdxskeptic's system has the edge going to DC United, while Sagarin has Toronto ahead. The differences are so narrow, however, that it can be called a dead heat.

Teams	Odds/Sag PD	WS Pick	Harra's Pick

CLB		1	1
MTL	3:1 (-3 wrong winner) .46 goals	2 (-3 wrong winner)	2 (-3 wrong winner)

The ratings system shows Montreal a clear 3-1 road favorite. Columbus has been uneven, so it would not surprise me if this is the upset special. I am still going with Montreal, but Columbus could emerge victorious. Final: CLB 2 - MTL 0 (And the upset call is correct, just not my pick. MTL dominate possession while CLB made the best of their chances).

Teams	Odds/Sag PD	WS Pick	Harra's Pick

COL	3:1 (-3 wrong winner) 1.25 goals	2 (-3 wrong winner)	2 (-3 wrong winner)
SJ		0	1

The numbers have this as the lock of the week. This game features the widest difference in both the ratings system and in Sagarin's goal difference. The big question is how San Jose responds to the coaching change. Will it be the medicine they need to regain their form or will they implode like the Timbers did last season when they made a mid-season change?

Interim coach Mark Watson has been experimenting with a 4-3-1-2 formation in training, moving last season's MLS top scorer Chris Wondolowski back into his preferred position up front. I think that will lead to at least one goal but it won't be enough to beat Colorado at altitude. Final COL 1 - SJ 2 (COL plays a man down from the 18' on, out shoots SJ 18-4 and still ends up on the losing side. The game featured six yellow cards and a red).

Teams	Odds/Sag PD	WS Pick	Harra's Pick

VAN	1:1 (-1 wrong outcome)	2 (-1 wrong outcome)	2 (-1 wrong outcome)
NE	.04 goals	2	2

The number crunchers can't seem to be able to separate these two teams with Vancouver's home pitch advantage. If this game were in New England, the Revolution would be a clear favorite. As it is, we are calling it a draw. Final VAN 4 - NE 3 (NE jumps to a 2-0 lead, then gives up a penalty that results in a red card in the 23'. VAN then moves out to a 4-2 lead before giving up a late goal for the final score. The game featured six yellow cards and the one red).

I will provide a report card after the games are in the books. What are your picks?

Score to date (after one week):

MLS Ratings: 7-9=-2
Whoscored: 7-9=-2
Harra: 0-5=-5

It was a rough week for the ratings and betting sites. The human fared only marginally better.

Usual caveat: Use this information for entertainment purposes. You don't want to take gambling advice from a guy who hates to play anything riskier than penny machines while in Vegas.

At the end of the weekend, I score each of the methods. Here are the scores from last weekend:

Score to date (after one week):

MLS Ratings: 7

Whoscored: 7

Harra: 0

Now to this week's games:

Teams	Odds/Sag PD	WS Pick	Harra's Pick

POR	1:1 (-1 wrong outcome) .47 goals	1 (-1 wrong outcome)	3 (+3 correct winner)
DAL		1	2

Teams	Odds/Sag PD	WS Pick	Harra's Pick

DC	1:1 (-1 wrong outcome)	1	2
TOR	.05 goals	1 (-1 wrong outcome)	2 (-1 wrong outcome)

Interesting note, pdxskeptic's system has the edge going to DC United, while Sagarin has Toronto ahead. The differences are so narrow, however, that it can be called a dead heat.

Teams	Odds/Sag PD	WS Pick	Harra's Pick

CLB		1	1
MTL	3:1 (-3 wrong winner) .46 goals	2 (-3 wrong winner)	2 (-3 wrong winner)

Teams	Odds/Sag PD	WS Pick	Harra's Pick

COL	3:1 (-3 wrong winner) 1.25 goals	2 (-3 wrong winner)	2 (-3 wrong winner)
SJ		0	1

Teams	Odds/Sag PD	WS Pick	Harra's Pick

VAN	1:1 (-1 wrong outcome)	2 (-1 wrong outcome)	2 (-1 wrong outcome)
NE	.04 goals	2	2

I will provide a report card after the games are in the books. What are your picks?

Score to date (after one week):

MLS Ratings: 7-9=-2
Whoscored: 7-9=-2
Harra: 0-5=-5

It was a rough week for the ratings and betting sites. The human fared only marginally better.

Usual caveat: Use this information for entertainment purposes. You don't want to take gambling advice from a guy who hates to play anything riskier than penny machines while in Vegas.

What active Timber will crack the USMNT first?

2013-06-13T20:27:00Z

As I have been thoroughly enjoying this international break (clutch wins for USA, Chile, and Honduras, plus a mostly-empty-but-still-slightly-encouraging victory for Scotland), a familiar question keeps recurring in my mind. I'm always very curious see which players are receiving international call-ups, because it gives an interesting insight into the global nature of our league. I know some people see call-ups as an unwelcome obstacle to club success or an unnecessary spin of the injury roulette wheel, but I love the fact that our league is attracting the kind of talent that makes national team coaches take note.

So here's the question: which of my beloved Timbers players will be the first to wear the red, white, and blue as well as the green? I know there have been Timbers who had previously received call-ups (Troy Perkins, Kenny Cooper, and Eric Alexander off the top of my head, and I think Sal Zizzo too?), but to the best of my knowledge we have never had a current player called up to the USMNT, right? I think we definitely have some high quality players who would be strong candidates for USMNT call-ups in their current form if they happened to be American, like Will Johnson, Los Dos Diegos, and Rodney Wallace (the US badly needs good wingers right now). Side note- RodWall y Los Dos Diegos would be a great name for a band. Like a Maná cover band that plays in hotel bars on weeknights. Yeah, rock that mariposa traicionera!

So anyway, who would it be? Nagbe, if he gets his full citizenship and realizes his potential? AJB in a couple of years when his mental game is on point? Umm, Mobi Fehr? Vote in the poll below and tell me why in the comments!

There's No Problem In Portland

2013-06-13T15:34:49Z

This was going to start eventually. Letting a two goal lead against the Chicago Fire slip last Saturday was the straw that broke the camel's back. Now, we're hearing this: The Portland Timbers have to start winning games. The Timbers have to stop blowing leads. The Timbers can't win a road game. The Timbers can't close out a victory. I say, enough. And be careful what you wish for.

Yes, the Timbers blew it in Bridgeport on Saturday. Shame to, because a Portland side depleted by international call-ups was coasting by a solid Fire team on the road. But one slip-up between Andrew Jean-Baptiste and Milos Kocic - aided by a timely push from Mike Magee - and an unstoppable free kick wrestled two points away from the Timbers.

It was a tough one to swallow, but there were many positives. The Timbers remained unbeaten on the road and unbeaten in their last 13 games. Those are FC Barcelona numbers. The offense looked frisky; Portland plunked in two great goals and at the end of the day, they couldn't seal a victory. No harm, no foul.

Individual games don't matter in MLS for their impact on the standings. With the overall parity of the league, and mostly MLS' Americanized playoff system, the Timbers winning or drawing in Chicago will have no bearing on what happens to this team at the end of the year. The Timbers will be comfortably in the playoffs. They'd like to win every game, but they know that's not practical, and it's not a problem.

So let's not make it a problem. Win your home games, draw your road games is cliché, but it's also a tried and true recipe for success. Portland is unbeaten on the road. Away victories are gravy. The Timbers are taking care of business at home, and they just may not lose again until 2023. So let's not try to create a problem where there isn't one.

While we're at it, let's also dispel the notion that the Timbers are incessantly blowing leads. Portland has come from behind to win or draw six times this year, and five of those games were on the road. How many times has Portland blown a winning position to lose or tie? Only twice: last Saturday and the game in San Jose in May.

Chicago didn't expose any weakness Saturday; they didn't rip open a festering wound that Caleb Porter now has to scurry to patch up. It's sports. These things happen. Especially in a sleepy little Chicago suburb in the middle of June, when the real event was the Chciago Blackhawks-Los Angeles Kings NHL Western Conference Finals game across town. One mistake, one great goal. Credit to Chicago, they battled back, and I bet they're in the playoffs in the fall. The Timbers will be there too. And if this happens again then, we can talk.

For now, a little perspective would be nice. The Timbers were a last place team last year. A bad last place team. The year before that, the Timbers were a sort of lukewarm mediocre, but the vibe around Jeld-Wen in 2011 was that the team couldn't hold onto a game in the 80th minute onwards.

The Timbers don't have that problem this year. They're one of the best teams in the league. They're halfway through a season in which they've only lost once. There's a coaching star on the sideline and leadership and talent all over the field. In fact, the Timbers would be well within their rights to tell every complaining fan to sit down, shut up and be happy.

They won't of course, because Caleb Porter is right there with you. He's a perfectionist who was reaming out his center-backs at halftime of a US Open Cup game against the Wilmington Hammerheads with his team leading 4-0. You bet, that blown lead stings.

But it changes nothing. We have a tendency in our 24 hour media today to try to bend every game, every passage of play into an overall bigger picture. Problem is, every moment isn't going to fit into one puzzle. Portland stomped out DC United in their last MLS game with authority and five goals against Wilmington shows a lack of complacency, as does a three-goal shellacking of Chivas USA in the team's last league home game.

Portland is about to enter an important stretch in their schedule. They play at Jeld-Wen Field three times the rest of June and take on Western Conference rivals FC Dallas, LA Galaxy, and Colorado Rapids before the month draws to a close. If the Timbers blow another lead or two, then we have a problem. Until then, there's nothing to worry about.

Do We Care? Should We Care? Is It Too Late To Care?

2013-06-12T19:41:42Z

How did you feel viewing last nights match between Panama and USA at CenturyLink Field? Could you fully enjoy the match without cringing a bit while hearing Seattle's crowd?

The crowd was laughing, chanting, barking, etc. They were very much into the game, as they should be. While I believe they are just a bunch of Portland-imitators, they surely have the eye-candy in their NFL (60+ thousand capacity) stadium to catch anyones attention. So much so that some are trying to claim it as USA's "Azteca". Seattle beat us in hosting a USMNT match, which unfairly prints Seattle, in people's mind, as the best and most passionate soccer market in the nation.

Or is it really unfair to say Seattle is the best place to host a match for the USMNT? They have the stadium and crowd to back it up. Is that not what this country has been aiming for all this time? In the state Oregon, we may know them as imitators but they are very nicely broadcasted as the largest and most passionate fan base in the States. We can sellout 20,000 seats every game but as long as our rivals up the good ol' I-5 have the luxury in using an NFL stadium, we will always be overshadowed by them. If they somehow manage to replace their turf with grass then there would be no real incentive for the USMNT in ever coming down to Jeld-Wen Field.

Some of you may say to yourself, "who cares? I don't care what they do, I am only focused on us." Okay. I feel you brother. We can only do what we will and control what we can. I'm that type of person myself. But in the spirit of being rivals, no matter how cool we may be about the elephant in the room, we may have to address the issue someday. Hopefully by then we are not too late because we must remember that we are a small market after all. So we must take advantage of the soccer leading position we are currently in before the rest of the nation starts catching up to us and even surpassing us with their new/large/shinny stadiums and someday, large crowds.

How did you feel viewing last nights match between Panama and USA at CenturyLink Field? Could you fully enjoy the match without cringing a bit while hearing Seattle's crowd?

What the USMNT at the Clink tells us

2013-06-12T11:20:56Z

1. All of the players had rave reviews for the fan experience. This should lead the USSF to keep trying to give games to Cascadia especially after we demonstrate how we support our national team at the Gold Cup in July. It was hard for me to read all of these thoughts as I believe 100% that the atmosphere at the Jelly is better than at the Clink... louder, more involved, more intimate, more intimidating for the other team...and it breaks my heart that all of this praise is given to Seattle while we have to wait until July to get a Gold Cup game....not a bad consolation prize but not a WC qualifier.

2. Most of the players did not like the pitch. Some were more willing to talk about it than others but players and media alike (Grant Wahl mentions it in his three thoughts column at cnnsi) all said it was a horrible playing field. If I remember correctly Merritt said that the Gold Cup game will be played on turf, not a temp grass field. I think this is the right call and I hope many players are surprised at how similar to grass it is. However I then would stipulate again that if we want Portland to get a WC qualifier in the future we need to have a grass field. And if Qatar can freaking air condition stadiums we can grow and maintain grass in PDX. Huge strides are being made in how to grow grass in stadia with not perfect conditions (heck even in indoor stadia) so lets get on that.

Thoughts?

Who is Portland's Second-Best CAM?

2013-06-11T22:50:15Z

Diego Valeri is awesome. Everyone in the PNW and their brother and their brother's dog, just about, knows Diego Valeri is awesome. But he's not perfect. It seems clear that he's more of a 70-minute player than a 90-minute player, which is really unfortunate. And given the way the game against the Fire went after Valeri went off (though this is just the most recent evidence - by no means is it the only evidence), it seems reasonably give some thought to who else on the Timbers' roster might be able to step in and help Portland close out games or otherwise maintain dominance when Valeri is off the field.

Current Backup CAMs

In the preseason, we saw some interesting choices. Nanchoff has some ability to distribute and dictate tempo, but maybe only at the reserve level - it's not clear that Porter thinks he could fulfill that role against MLS-caliber competition, and neither do I. Nagbe has played there before, but he's not really a playmaker; he's a deep-lying forward or inside forward that wants to create off the dribble instead of passing, at least primarily. And I think Valeri's positioning is better. Valencia played in the CAM role in preseason, but so far this season it's clear he's a direct attacker, not a playmaker (and to be clear, I would love to see him start up front some time or otherwise get significant minutes as a CF). Alhassan might seem ideal for the role, but as every Timbers fan knows, he holds on to the ball too long, and tends to drift out of games positionally. More discipline and he could pull it off, I think. And finally, Porter played Will Johnson there against the Fire. I love me some WJ, but he's really a box-to-box guy. He doesn't quite have the technical skills or vision to create the way Valeri does. In short, we've seen several players tried in the CAM position and all have their strengths and weaknesses.

An Aside

It's worth interjecting for a minute and noting that I'm using the term center attacking midfielder or CAM to describe the position. I am doing this to maintain some flexibility in the tactical possibilities - Valeri is definitely a #10 in the sense of both playing that position on the field and doing so as a playmaker, as opposed to Nagbe's withdrawn forward style or Will Johnson's advanced center midfielder. The point is that any replacement for Valeri in the position isn't obligated to play like him, though, as I'd argue we've seen, that playing style makes the system work a whole lot better. Following from this, what I'll suggest below assumes that replicating Valeri's playing style is the point. If there's room to put someone there who plays differently, then I want to suggest Zemanski as a late-game forward destroyer (also, this is where we might actually miss Eric Alexander, to be honest). I suggest Z-man because I don't want to see the WJ/Chara duo broken up, and Zemanski has shown he can win balls and distribute decently, if not brilliantly. For my money, though there's an open question about hold-up play, if Porter is looking to kill off games, this is worth a try.

So who's the next-best CAM?

In some ways, I am surprised I haven't seen anyone suggest this (correct me if I'm wrong!). So part of the reason I'm writing this post is to see if someone has a good argument for why what I'm about to suggest is a bad idea. But if there is a lack of a second Valeri-style CAM on the Timbers such that when he leaves the pitch (and here I should say I do realize that the premise of this post is that not having someone who is a straight swap is what's causing the problem, and not just that Valeri is irreplaceable), then I think Caleb Porter should try in the position..... Frederic Piquionne. My reasoning boils down 1) his experience helps him be positionally sound; 2) he has demonstrated an ability to make killer passes; 3) he tracks back and plays defense all over the field; 4) if he's a 60-70th minute sub, stamina is less of an issue; 4) his patience and hold-up play has been better than most of the rest of the team; 5) he's actually better than Valeri at flicking the long ball on to someone in front of him - I have noticed that this happens a lot when he's on the field and it results in a turnover because he's the most advanced player; and 6) putting him there means if the Timbers want to shift to a 4-4-2 or a 4-4-1-1, it's really easy, since he's technically a striker. The downside of this, if you can call it that, is that it presumes that RJ will come back and start - and I think that's an open assumption given what Piquionne showed during RJ's absence.

I am pretty enamored of this idea at the moment. It would seem both solve the problem of not having a replacement for Valeri, it frees up Zemanski or Alhassan to play on the wing, etc. And my favorite reason I like this idea? If Piquionne doesn't come in for RJ, then who does? EL TRENCITO!

Current Backup CAMs

An Aside

So who's the next-best CAM?

NWSL Week Nine Power Rankings: Flash Bang

2013-06-11T19:19:06Z

Records are listed W-L-D

1. Western New York Flash 4-2-2 previously 2

Last week: Draw at Boston 2-2; won at Sky Blue 3-0

Next week: at Washington

Perhaps the 3-0 scoreline overstated how the game played out, but when you go on the road and beat the team that topped these rankings for the last three weeks in any kind of 3-0 game, you've earned the top spot. The Flash are 4-0-1 over their last five and look to be the team that nobody wants to play right now. Abby Wambach is in impressive form.

2. Sky Blue FC 7-2-1 previously 1

Last week: lost at home 3-0 vs. Flash

Next week: at Boston

After reeling off five straight wins, Sky Blue lost to the Flash for the second time this year. Despite the disappointment, the team still finds themselves atop the table with an impressive 22 points through 10 games and the league best in both goals for and against. Perhaps Sky Blue suffered all their bad luck in one ugly game, and will go on another impressive run of wins. Or maybe their rivals from Rochester have their number. Maybe both. The teams play for a fourth and final time July 21, though a fifth meeting in the playoffs seems almost likely.

3. Portland Thorns 7-2-1 previously 4

Last week: beat Kansas City 4-3 in Portland

Next week: home vs. Seattle

Portland followed their zombie-like Chicago performance with perhaps their best game of the year. They played FCKC as though it were the championship. While no one gives up three goals in a perfect game, playing hard and making mistakes was none the less a significant improvement over the effort shown the week prior. Portland's international players returned and hosted some soul-searching team meetings which had the desired effect on the pitch. Should Portland play with that type of effort consistently, they will be an extremely difficult team to beat. And Alex Morgan is playing like a woman possessed. This week Portland will be down three players and will see if the good form can continue without their leaders.

4. FC Kansas City 4-3-1 previously 3

Last week: Lost at Portland 4-3; won at Seattle 1-0

Next week: hosts Chicago

The Blues' travels to the Pacific Northwest last week must leave them with a bitter taste. They played at an extremely high level at Portland, only to receive back the Thorns' best effort to date. KC conceded four, lost their star striker Renae Cuellar to a sprained ankle, and came away with participation ribbons. Cuellar's knock wasn't one of those bad luck, “landed funny” kind of injuries, either. Rachel Buehler went all “number one fan” on Cuellar's right foot just as she was winding up for a blast on goal.

Kansas City proceeded north to the welcoming atmosphere in Tukwila where they put up a poor effort and were outplayed by the Reign. However, Erika Tymrak scored her second goal this season (and second of the week) as the Blues escaped with a 1-0 win and 3 big points. Now they go home, lose a bunch of players to international call-ups, and face a Chicago side with a bounce in their step. Kansas City needs the win.

5. Boston Breakers 3-3-3 previously 5

Last week: Draw at home to Flash 2-2; lost at Chicago 1-0

Next week: hosts Sky Blue

Unthinkable just a few weeks ago, the Breakers are in danger of falling out of the top five. Credit Chicago for winning two in a row, but Boston clearly has no consistency. After a hard fought draw to the Flash in which Boston conceded in extra time, the disappointment carried over to the game in Chicago where the should-be-dangerous Boston attack managed nothing. Opponents certainly can't take Boston lightly, but every now and then, you're going to get a side that just won't show up. Boston is now just 1-3-2 in their last six.

6. Chicago Red Stars 2-4-2 previously 6

Last week: beat Boston 1-0 at home

Next week: at FCKC

Well, well, well. Chicago is now 2-0-0 in June with two clean sheets. Lori Chalupny netted her third of the season as the Red Stars upset Boston at home. The notion that Chicago could push toward that final playoff spot doesn't seem as preposterous as it did through May. Chicago goes to 4th place Kansas City this week with the chance to eat in to that 5-point deficit. FCKC will be down several key players to international duty, a situation similar to the one the Stars took advantage of last week at Portland.

7. Washington Spirit 1-4-3 previously 7

Last week: idle

Next week: home vs. Flash

Nothing like having three full weeks off in the middle of the season, huh? The Spirit last had a game May 25th. I'm sure there was a reason for this scheduling oddity, but I just can't fathom what it was. The Spirit reconvene this week just in time for an international break.

8. Seattle Reign 0-8-1 previously 8

Last week: lost at home to FCKC 1-0

Next week: at Portland

Between Saturday and Tuesday, 100,000+ people will attend soccer games in Seattle. Just 1,800 of those fans attended Seattle's home game Sunday as the Reign continued their snake-bit season with a disheartening 1-0 loss. Seattle waited patiently for Hope Solo to join the squad, and now is on the brink of having Megan Rapinoe suit up, which she is scheduled to do after the USA international games against South Korea next week. The burning question is whether it's too late.

Seattle finished their four game homestand with 0 points, but the last two of those games were narrow 1-0 defeats against top teams in which Seattle felt hard done. A widely disagreed-with penalty led to Portland's one goal, and then a howler by Solo led to FCKC's lone score. If the Reign have any confidence left, it might be justified. Should Seattle get a win at Portland while the Thorns are missing three international stars, they would be welcoming Rapinoe while on their best run of the year.

Records are listed W-L-D

1. Western New York Flash 4-2-2 previously 2

Last week: Draw at Boston 2-2; won at Sky Blue 3-0

Next week: at Washington

2. Sky Blue FC 7-2-1 previously 1

Last week: lost at home 3-0 vs. Flash

Next week: at Boston

3. Portland Thorns 7-2-1 previously 4

Last week: beat Kansas City 4-3 in Portland

Next week: home vs. Seattle

4. FC Kansas City 4-3-1 previously 3

Last week: Lost at Portland 4-3; won at Seattle 1-0

Next week: hosts Chicago

5. Boston Breakers 3-3-3 previously 5

Last week: Draw at home to Flash 2-2; lost at Chicago 1-0

Next week: hosts Sky Blue

6. Chicago Red Stars 2-4-2 previously 6

Last week: beat Boston 1-0 at home

Next week: at FCKC

7. Washington Spirit 1-4-3 previously 7

Last week: idle

Next week: home vs. Flash

8. Seattle Reign 0-8-1 previously 8

Last week: lost at home to FCKC 1-0

Next week: at Portland

Poll

Which team deserves the top spot?

Western New York Flash

1 votes

Sky Blue FC

0 votes

Portland Thorns

2 votes

3 votes | Poll has closed

MLS Ratings as of June 9th.

2013-06-10T05:18:25Z

A rating difference of 100 points corresponds (ignoring ties) to an estimated odds of 2:1 for the stronger team, 200 points to 4:1 odds, and 300 points to 8:1 odds. Add the 75 point home field advantage to the rating of the home team before computing the difference.

Someone asked last week that I post the previous week's ratings and ranks in the table. I'll get to it sometime soon, I promise.

MLS Ratings as of June 9, 2013

Team	Rank	Games	Won	Tied	Lost	Rating	SE	Opp Med	Opp mean
Montreal	1	12	8	2	2	1685	127	1493	1497
FC Dallas	2	14	8	4	2	1640	118	1507	1490
Portland	3	14	5	8	1	1606	113	1507	1499
Seattle	4	13	6	3	4	1579	117	1503	1526
Real Salt Lake	5	16	8	3	5	1561	116	1502	1492
Colorado	6	14	5	5	4	1548	115	1512	1509
New York	7	16	7	4	5	1527	116	1493	1480
Houston	8	14	6	4	4	1523	116	1493	1466
New England	9	14	5	5	4	1512	116	1512	1498
Vancouver	10	13	4	4	5	1503	117	1527	1523
LA Galaxy	11	14	6	2	6	1501	118	1518	1505
Sporting KC	12	15	6	4	5	1493	116	1512	1488
Philadelphia	12	15	6	4	5	1493	115	1493	1471
San Jose	14	15	3	6	6	1466	112	1561	1541
Columbus	15	14	4	5	5	1456	115	1493	1461
Chicago	16	13	3	3	7	1398	120	1501	1500
Chivas USA	17	13	3	2	8	1372	122	1548	1528
Toronto FC	18	13	1	5	7	1364	118	1503	1526
D.C. United	19	14	1	3	10	1274	124	1518	1515

Someone asked last week that I post the previous week's ratings and ranks in the table. I'll get to it sometime soon, I promise.

MLS Ratings as of June 9, 2013

Team	Rank	Games	Won	Tied	Lost	Rating	SE	Opp Med	Opp mean
Montreal	1	12	8	2	2	1685	127	1493	1497
FC Dallas	2	14	8	4	2	1640	118	1507	1490
Portland	3	14	5	8	1	1606	113	1507	1499
Seattle	4	13	6	3	4	1579	117	1503	1526
Real Salt Lake	5	16	8	3	5	1561	116	1502	1492
Colorado	6	14	5	5	4	1548	115	1512	1509
New York	7	16	7	4	5	1527	116	1493	1480
Houston	8	14	6	4	4	1523	116	1493	1466
New England	9	14	5	5	4	1512	116	1512	1498
Vancouver	10	13	4	4	5	1503	117	1527	1523
LA Galaxy	11	14	6	2	6	1501	118	1518	1505
Sporting KC	12	15	6	4	5	1493	116	1512	1488
Philadelphia	12	15	6	4	5	1493	115	1493	1471
San Jose	14	15	3	6	6	1466	112	1561	1541
Columbus	15	14	4	5	5	1456	115	1493	1461
Chicago	16	13	3	3	7	1398	120	1501	1500
Chivas USA	17	13	3	2	8	1372	122	1548	1528
Toronto FC	18	13	1	5	7	1364	118	1503	1526
D.C. United	19	14	1	3	10	1274	124	1518	1515

MLS Fantasy Week 16 Discussion

2013-06-09T08:13:31Z

Giving this another crack.

The author* appreciates all who took the time to read last week's piece.

This week is complicated, but breaks down into:

4 teams with Double Fixtures:OR, COL, MTL, VAN

10 teams with single weeks: CLB, CHI, CVS, DC, NE, TFC, FCD, HOU, LAG, SJ, and

5 teams on byes: KC, NY, RSL, SEA, PHI

Of note: Chivas and San Jose have new coaches going forward. My take:

Possibly good for Chivas (especially for Kennedy if he gets to play behind a 4 man backline)
Probably bad for San Jose (at least in the immediate term)

Anyhow, this week is about two things: Fielding as many DGW players as possible and not completely mucking up your roster for the remainder of the season.

Who should you be bringing in?

1. POR & COL players who'll play 270 minutes or thereabouts in weeks 16 & 17. This is a bit trickier of a proposition because of Portland's international call-ups, and because Colorado's lineup has been consistently in flux due to a bevvy of injuries.

2. MTL & VAN players who you either have bench space for in GW 17 or are willing to have a one week stand with.

So, by position, listed in the order I'd add them:

GK: Irwin; Perkins, Knighton, Ricketts

DEF: Klute, Ferrari, Camara, Harrington, Moor, Wynne, Y. P. Lee

MID: Valeri, Bernier, Mapp, W. Johnson, Nagbe, Reo C., Tiebert, Felipe,

FOR: Di Vaio, Camilo, D.Brown, R. Johnson, Kenny Miller.

Again, not actually that many names. AJB & PMK started against the Fire. I just have no idea who plays once Futty returns from the Gambia. O'Brien left with a hamstring injury which hurts the who Vancouver D. Feel free to pickup Colorado midfielders, I just have no idea how they'll be shuffled about and that also affects Sturgis.

Who should you be dropping?

1. Players whose value will be negatively affected by the return of players from intl duty.

2. Anybody who won't make your lineup in the next two weeks, bench space is still too tight. Figure out who gets those precious bench spots (looking at you recently acquired NE posse)

3. Carlo Cudicini (may have lost spot?), Lamar Neagle (good while it lasted, not clear he gets minutes once EJ is back), Villarreal (off to Turkey), just about everybody on SJ until there lineup is established under the new regime.

That pretty much addresses this week.

What about value going forward?

These are a few players per team (except Chivas) I'd want from a long term value perspective:

CHI: Berry, S. Johnson, Magee, Soumare

CVS: Kennedy

COL: Irwin, Klute, Moor, D.Brown

CLB: Higuin, Oduro, Arrieta (but don't make that your front line)

DC: Porter, Kitchen, Korb, Hamid (all are quite cheap and play decently)

DAL: Michel, Jacobson, John, Hedges

HOU: Davis, Boniek Garcia, Bruin

LAG: Keane, Gonzalez, Donovan, Cochrane

MTL: Ferrari, Camara,Di Vaio, Mapp, Bernier

NE: Goncalves, Shuttleworth, Tierney, Farrell, Agudelo, Fagundez

NYRB: McCarty, Holgersson, Espindola, Olave

PHI: Parke, Okugo, McInerney

POR: Wallace, Valeri, W. Johnson, Nagbe

RSL: Morales, Beckerman, Borchers, Garcia

SJ: Chavez, Wondo, Cronin

SEA: Traore, Gspurning, Rosales, Martins

SKC: Zusi, Collin, Besler, Kamara

TFC: O'Dea, Osorio, Laba

VAN: Knighton, Camilo, Reo-Coker

Finally, mostly for the fun of it, if I were starting today with a fresh $100M, this is my team for GW16:

GK: Irwin ($5.0)

DEF: Klute ($4.8), Moor ($5.3), Ferrari ($4.7), Camara ($5.0)

MID: Nagbe ($7.9), Valeri ($7.7), W.Johnson ($8.8)

FOR: Di Vaio ($8.9), Kenny Miller ($7.8), Camilo ($7.7)

BENCH: B. Rowe ($3.9), Morales ($8.8), Okugo ($7.8), Hedges ($5.8)

Total $99.9M. Transfer plan for GW17: Miller & Di Vaio OUT; Robbie Keane, Gyasi Zardes IN or Miller & Camilo OUT; Higuin & Zardes IN.

Basically the two free transfers need to clear out VAN/MTL slots, and I like the value in the MTL backline a lot. I'd put Brovsky on here too, but the potential of Di Viao DGW is too great.

Hope that gives ya'll some ideas going forward. Look forward to the comments.

*Currently the owner of Cheatswithbrain FFC, which I mention only to lend a modicum of credibility to the notion that the above piece isn't entirely hogwash.

Giving this another crack.

The author* appreciates all who took the time to read last week's piece.

This week is complicated, but breaks down into:

4 teams with Double Fixtures:OR, COL, MTL, VAN

10 teams with single weeks: CLB, CHI, CVS, DC, NE, TFC, FCD, HOU, LAG, SJ, and

5 teams on byes: KC, NY, RSL, SEA, PHI

Of note: Chivas and San Jose have new coaches going forward. My take:

GK: Irwin; Perkins, Knighton, Ricketts

DEF: Klute, Ferrari, Camara, Harrington, Moor, Wynne, Y. P. Lee

MID: Valeri, Bernier, Mapp, W. Johnson, Nagbe, Reo C., Tiebert, Felipe,

FOR: Di Vaio, Camilo, D.Brown, R. Johnson, Kenny Miller.

2. Anybody who won't make your lineup in the next two weeks, bench space is still too tight. Figure out who gets those precious bench spots (looking at you recently acquired NE posse)

These are a few players per team (except Chivas) I'd want from a long term value perspective:

CHI: Berry, S. Johnson, Magee, Soumare

CVS: Kennedy

COL: Irwin, Klute, Moor, D.Brown

CLB: Higuin, Oduro, Arrieta (but don't make that your front line)

DC: Porter, Kitchen, Korb, Hamid (all are quite cheap and play decently)

DAL: Michel, Jacobson, John, Hedges

HOU: Davis, Boniek Garcia, Bruin

LAG: Keane, Gonzalez, Donovan, Cochrane

MTL: Ferrari, Camara,Di Vaio, Mapp, Bernier

NE: Goncalves, Shuttleworth, Tierney, Farrell, Agudelo, Fagundez

NYRB: McCarty, Holgersson, Espindola, Olave

PHI: Parke, Okugo, McInerney

POR: Wallace, Valeri, W. Johnson, Nagbe

RSL: Morales, Beckerman, Borchers, Garcia

SJ: Chavez, Wondo, Cronin

SEA: Traore, Gspurning, Rosales, Martins

SKC: Zusi, Collin, Besler, Kamara

TFC: O'Dea, Osorio, Laba

VAN: Knighton, Camilo, Reo-Coker

Finally, mostly for the fun of it, if I were starting today with a fresh $100M, this is my team for GW16:

GK: Irwin ($5.0)

DEF: Klute ($4.8), Moor ($5.3), Ferrari ($4.7), Camara ($5.0)

MID: Nagbe ($7.9), Valeri ($7.7), W.Johnson ($8.8)

FOR: Di Vaio ($8.9), Kenny Miller ($7.8), Camilo ($7.7)

BENCH: B. Rowe ($3.9), Morales ($8.8), Okugo ($7.8), Hedges ($5.8)

Total $99.9M. Transfer plan for GW17: Miller & Di Vaio OUT; Robbie Keane, Gyasi Zardes IN or Miller & Camilo OUT; Higuin & Zardes IN.

In MLS, The Smartest Team Wins

2013-06-06T15:36:00Z

The games are not fair. Sort of like life.

For instance, in the NBA, the best players gang up and go to one of eight or so teams. In the MLB, the Yankees payroll makes that of half their competitors look like pocket change. In European soccer, the land of oil oligarchs and Saudi princes, Manchester City is playing for first. Wigan are playing for 17th.

The NFL and NHL are better, but there are still haves and have nots. In NASCAR, the drives with the powerhouse teams compete for championships. In horseracing, it’s the powerhouse breeders.

This isn’t even to mention college sports, where the great divide between big programs and small programs in money, support, and facilities is laughable.

The games aren’t fair. There are no completely level playing fields in team sports, as hard as we may try to balance things out. There are just certain advantages that come with playing in LA that don’t come with playing in Columbus, certain disadvantages that come with being owned by a self-made business man rather than a sheik.

But there’s one exception to the rule. Major League Soccer. MLS is the one league where smarts and creativity mean more than location and financial status. Just ask the Portland Timbers.

Winning in MLS is hard. The league salary cap is claustrophobic, at a minuscule 2.95 million dollars. It’s a hard cap, but it’s littered with enough loopholes to make the tax code look like child’s play.

Part of the reason MLS has such a low salary cap is because after watching the NASL go boom and then bust, MLS is being overly cautious, and making sure they don’t overreach as a league. But it sure makes parity and competitive soccer. With only 2.95 million dollars to spend on an entire roster, the teams run by the smartest people will rise to the top. There’s no room for error. The LA Galaxy may attract big-name players, but with so little money to spend, they can’t sign all of them. There are no New York Cosmos in MLS.

Sure, the big teams in MLS will get big-name Designated Players, but there are only three DP spots, and they take up precious room under the cap. All the teams in MLS are trying to build a team from the same talent pool. Whoever can stitch a squad together with so many difficult constraints will win. It’s as simple as that.

LA is seen as the standard-barer of Major League Soccer, but when David Beckham first came stateside, things weren’t all that rosy. Ruud Gullit was the LA manager, and while Gullit was a special player, he didn’t have the patience or wherewithal to work under MLS’s stingy conditions.

Gullit wanted to build a super-team, and that’s just not possible in MLS. He didn’t understand the rules, and he didn’t want to work with them. The Dutchman only lasted half a season. When he was sacked, the Galaxy were in last place. Then LA brought in Bruce Arena, the most accomplished American coach ever, someone who thrived working with the MLS salary cap.

In just two years, Arena had LA in the MLS Cup Final. Three years later, Beckham exited as a back-to-back MLS Champion. The main reason the Galaxy won was because they had the best players. But the Galaxy didn’t have the best players because they play in LA, they had the best players because they got the best guy to construct their team.

More than 10 years before at DC United, Arena won two MLS Cups, a US Open Cup, and a CONCACAF Champions Cup. In MLS, cities don’t win titles. Coaches and GMs do.

Sigi Schmid, the current Sounders coach was a champion in Columbus. He went to Seattle, and his team has never missed the playoffs. It’s refreshing – the smallest teams in the league know that they can win MLS Cup. They just have to put smart people in the right places.

It’s not that easy in the NBA, for example. Are you really telling me that Frank Vogel and Eric Spolstra were the two best coaches in the Eastern Conference this season?

All the owners in MLS can easily afford the 2.95 million dollars to spend on their players. It’s as level a playing field as you are going to see in team sports. The Timbers are a great example.

In their first two seasons in the league, with Gavin Wilkinson and John Spencer running the team, the Timbers splashed cash on poor players, had imbalanced teams and left positions without adequate cover. This year, Caleb Porter comes in with new ideas, a fresh system for evaluating players, and the Timbers jump to the top of MLS.

That’s how the Timbers skipped rebuilding. They hired one of the smartest, hardest working coaches in the business. Portland plucked Diego Valeri out of Argentina – that’s just good scouting, who had ever heard of Valeri in the USA before this year?

The Timbers worked Real Salt Lake’s tight cap to their advantage, turning Lovel Palmer into Will Johnson. They swiftly cut Kris Boyd’s big contract, signed Mikael Silvestre, shuffled some different pieces, and made themselves a winner.

All it took was innovation and wits. Almost any team in MLS could have had most of the players the Timbers signed this year, one way or another. But the Timbers have smarter people in charge, and because this is MLS, Portland has a real chance to win the championship this season and become a perennial contender in the league.

Porter made all the difference. Just one man, in one position, took Portland from worst to first. Welcome to MLS. May the smartest team win.

The games are not fair. Sort of like life.

The NFL and NHL are better, but there are still haves and have nots. In NASCAR, the drives with the powerhouse teams compete for championships. In horseracing, it’s the powerhouse breeders.

This isn’t even to mention college sports, where the great divide between big programs and small programs in money, support, and facilities is laughable.

But there’s one exception to the rule. Major League Soccer. MLS is the one league where smarts and creativity mean more than location and financial status. Just ask the Portland Timbers.

More than 10 years before at DC United, Arena won two MLS Cups, a US Open Cup, and a CONCACAF Champions Cup. In MLS, cities don’t win titles. Coaches and GMs do.

It’s not that easy in the NBA, for example. Are you really telling me that Frank Vogel and Eric Spolstra were the two best coaches in the Eastern Conference this season?

All the owners in MLS can easily afford the 2.95 million dollars to spend on their players. It’s as level a playing field as you are going to see in team sports. The Timbers are a great example.

Porter made all the difference. Just one man, in one position, took Portland from worst to first. Welcome to MLS. May the smartest team win.

Eric Lichaj a Free Agent (!)

2013-06-05T22:09:05Z

Guess who just got released by Tom Hanks' favorite EPL side.

http://www.espn.co.uk/football/sport/story/210632.html#

Lichaj, only 24 years old, starred in only 17 games last season for Villa. With the World Cup coming up, one can speculate that the fringe American international fullback will want first-team football in the months running up to Brazil, in order to snag a spot on the National team roster. Should Portland be the place to provide it?

Acknowledging Portland's history of problems at the position, could Lichaj be the long term answer at right-back?

What are his chances of playing in the MLS, and contrarily, what are the chances he pulls a 'Diskerud'?

*On a side note: An article on mlssoccer.com somehow made a comparison of the U.S. Open Cup and the participating teams to, what else, Game of Thrones. Does anyone have the free time to go through and translate each player on our roster to a character on the show? It's meaningless, but it would make one Timbers/GoT fan very, very happy.

Stumptown Footy: FanPosts

Portland: Contender or Pretender

Timbers transactions this season

Nagbe Magic Caps Wonderful Afternoon - Game Recap

MLS Ratings as of June 16th

Week 16 MLS Predictions

MLS Ratings: 7-9=-2Whoscored: 7-9=-2Harra: 0-5=-5

MLS Ratings: 7-9=-2Whoscored: 7-9=-2Harra: 0-5=-5

What active Timber will crack the USMNT first?

Which active Timber will be the first to be called up for the USMNT?

There's No Problem In Portland

Do We Care? Should We Care? Is It Too Late To Care?

What the USMNT at the Clink tells us

Who is Portland's Second-Best CAM?

NWSL Week Nine Power Rankings: Flash Bang

Which team deserves the top spot?

Western New York Flash

Sky Blue FC

Portland Thorns

MLS Ratings as of June 9th.

MLS Fantasy Week 16 Discussion

In MLS, The Smartest Team Wins

Eric Lichaj a Free Agent (!)

MLS Ratings: 7-9=-2
Whoscored: 7-9=-2
Harra: 0-5=-5

MLS Ratings: 7-9=-2
Whoscored: 7-9=-2
Harra: 0-5=-5