Many of you remember the points per game analysis I did during the quarter mark of the season. At that point the Portland Timbers had just won their 5th straight home game and were riding a huge momentum wave. Well they now are at the lowest of lows just over midway through the season.
Once again the calculations are really easy and I will just quote myself from the previous post:
So to get the calculations I am going to share with you I did some simple spreadsheet math. First I calculated t he points per game based on total game played and points. I did this by dividing the points by the total games played. Then I took that number and multiplied by the remaining number of games each team had. Once I found out how many points, given their form over the first quarter of the season, they would earn and added it to the points they currently have.
So find out what the final standings are going to look like after the jump:
Alright so since the Timbers and us fans only really care about the Eastern Conference (I think it should be called the leastern after seeing these numbers) because of the new play-off format lets get that conference over and done with:
Eastern Conference:
Here are the current standings:
|
# |
Club |
PTS |
GP |
Home |
Home Pts |
Away |
Away Pts |
|
1 |
28 |
20 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
15 |
|
|
2 |
28 |
18 |
9 |
19 |
9 |
9 |
|
|
3 |
27 |
18 |
9 |
18 |
9 |
9 |
|
|
4 |
23 |
19 |
10 |
17 |
9 |
6 |
|
|
5 |
22 |
18 |
5 |
9 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
6 |
D.C. United |
22 |
17 |
9 |
11 |
8 |
11 |
|
7 |
18 |
19 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
9 |
|
|
8 |
18 |
21 |
11 |
4 |
10 |
14 |
|
|
9 |
New England |
16 |
18 |
9 |
3 |
9 |
13 |
Now applying the calculations this is what I get:
|
Club |
PPG |
Projected |
PPG home |
Projected |
PPG Away |
Projected |
PPG Total |
|
New York Red Bulls |
1.4 |
47.6 |
1.3 |
22 |
1.5 |
25.5 |
48 |
|
Philadelphia Union |
1.555556 |
52.88889 |
2.111111 |
36 |
1 |
17 |
53 |
|
Columbus Crew |
1.5 |
51 |
2 |
34 |
1 |
17 |
51 |
|
Houston Dynamo |
1.210526 |
41.15789 |
1.7 |
29 |
0.666667 |
11.33333 |
40 |
|
Sporting Kansas City |
1.222222 |
41.55556 |
1.8 |
31 |
1 |
17 |
48 |
|
D.C. United |
1.294118 |
44 |
1.222222 |
21 |
1.375 |
23.375 |
44 |
|
Chicago Fire |
0.947368 |
32.21053 |
1.125 |
19 |
0.818182 |
13.90909 |
33 |
|
Toronto FC |
0.857143 |
29.14286 |
0.363636 |
6 |
1.4 |
23.8 |
30 |
|
New England |
0.888889 |
30.22222 |
0.333333 |
6 |
1.444444 |
24.55556 |
30 |
If you remember the last time I ran these numbers there were sometimes some glaring differences between the two total points calculations. This time those calculations are almost exact in almost all cases. Interestingly enough it looks like the 3 teams that will be guaranteed the play-offs will be the Union, Columbus and depending on tiebreakers New York or the Wiz.
Western Conference:
Here are the current standings:
|
# |
Club |
PTS |
GP |
Home |
Home Pts |
Away |
Away Pts |
|
1 |
LA Galaxy |
39 |
21 |
10 |
20 |
11 |
19 |
|
2 |
35 |
21 |
10 |
18 |
11 |
17 |
|
|
3 |
34 |
19 |
11 |
23 |
8 |
11 |
|
|
4 |
30 |
17 |
10 |
21 |
7 |
9 |
|
|
5 |
27 |
20 |
10 |
14 |
10 |
13 |
|
|
6 |
22 |
19 |
10 |
12 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
7 |
22 |
18 |
10 |
14 |
8 |
8 |
|
|
8 |
Portland Timbers |
18 |
17 |
10 |
16 |
7 |
2 |
|
9 |
14 |
20 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
3 |
And now for the calculations:
|
Club |
PPG |
Projected |
PPG home |
Projected |
PPG Away |
Projected |
PPG Total |
|
LA Galaxy |
1.857143 |
63.14286 |
2 |
34 |
1.727273 |
29.36364 |
63 |
|
Seattle Sounders FC |
1.666667 |
56.66667 |
1.8 |
31 |
1.545455 |
26.27273 |
57 |
|
FC Dallas |
1.789474 |
60.84211 |
2.090909 |
36 |
1.375 |
23.375 |
59 |
|
Real Salt Lake |
1.764706 |
60 |
2.1 |
36 |
1.285714 |
21.85714 |
58 |
|
Colorado Rapids |
1.35 |
45.9 |
1.4 |
24 |
1.3 |
22.1 |
46 |
|
Chivas USA |
1.157895 |
39.36842 |
1.2 |
20 |
1.111111 |
18.88889 |
39 |
|
San Jose Earthquakes |
1.222222 |
41.55556 |
1.4 |
24 |
1 |
17 |
41 |
|
Portland Timbers |
1.058824 |
36 |
1.6 |
27 |
0.285714 |
4.857143 |
32 |
|
Vancouver Whitecaps FC |
0.7 |
23.8 |
1.222222 |
21 |
0.272727 |
4.636364 |
25 |
Wow, just looking at the top 4 teams in comparison with the Eastern Conference makes you glad MLS has a balanced schedule. If they didn't it could be much worse for the two expansion teams. Houston must also be happy they moved because their projected 40 points is only 8 off of a play-off spot in the East, while that would get them 7th place in the West. The only silver lining in these numbers concerning Portland is the fact that they will not be dead last and would have at least 3 or 4 teams behind them.
The other obvious news is the fact that with the other teams in the conference having some huge projected point totals Play-offs is over and done with. The only way Play-offs become an option is if the .27 ppg on the road comes up to 1 ppg and the home ppg comes up to 2.
Cascadia Cup
Not only is it half-way through the MLS season but 3 of the 6 Cascadia Cup games have been played. Here are the current standings:
|
Pts |
GP |
|
|
Seattle |
5 |
3 |
|
Vancouver |
1 |
1 |
|
Portland |
1 |
2 |
Looking at these standings Portland still has a shot at winning the cup but only if Vancouver ties or beats Seattle and Portland wins both the games against the Whitecaps.
Also to get your hopes up here is something to consider. Portland has yet to play the three out of the four worst road teams at home, Vancouver, Toronto and New England. However the road games don't get any easier as they have already played and lost to most of the teams that have bad home records:
Look for a in depth analysis of player-positions and why Portland is struggling on defense soon (hopefully in the next 2 days).