Predicting the Final Standings: Playoff implications

I am back with my projected standings but this time with a twist. I was talking with others who were interested in projecting the final standings based on points per match and we all agreed there is a limitation to using calculations that have the whole season built into them. Especially in the cases of the New York Redbulls or the Philadelphia Union, you know start super fast and earn lots of points in the first 10 games but then slowly fade.

So here I decided to project the final points of all the teams in 3 ways:(Again the calculations are pretty simple, you just take points and divide it by the number of games.)

1) A straight points per match

2) Calculating the projected points based on the PPM at home and the PPM on the road

3) Only looking at form over the last 2 and a half months, so only games after July 1st are counted. (this is a straight PPM calculation)

More after the jump:

Eastern Conference Straight PPM

Club	PTS	Matches	PPM	Projected
Columbus Crew	41	28	1.46428571	49.7857143
Sporting Kansas City	40	28	1.42857143	48.5714286
Philadelphia Union	36	27	1.33333333	45.3333333
Houston Dynamo	36	29	1.24137931	42.2068966
D.C. United	34	25	1.36	46.24
New York Red Bulls	33	27	1.22222222	41.5555556
Chicago Fire	27	27	1	34
New England Revolution	27	28	0.96428571	32.7857143
Toronto FC	27	29	0.93103448	31.6551724

Analysis

As you can see Columbus, Sporting Kansas City and DC United would end up as the top 3 teams in the East. This feels right as they are currently the teams with the best form out of the East. However I just feel like Philly and New York may not get that many points.

Western Conference Straight PPM

Club	PTS	Matches	PPM	Projected
LA Galaxy	55	28	1.9642857	66.7857143
Seattle Sounders FC	48	28	1.7142857	58.2857143
FC Dallas	46	28	1.6428571	55.8571429
Real Salt Lake	45	26	1.7307692	58.8461538
Colorado Rapids	41	29	1.4137931	48.0689655
Portland Timbers	33	27	1.2222222	41.5555556
Chivas USA	31	28	1.1071429	37.6428571
San Jose Earthquakes	29	27	1.0740741	36.5185185
Vancouver Whitecaps FC	22	27	0.8148148	27.7037037

Analysis

The LA galaxy are running away with the Supporter's shield. Unless they start resting players early I really don't see anyone catching them. Seattle and RSL are in a dog fight for the number two spot and FC Dallas are fading into the top wildcard spot, I would not want to play them in the playoffs.

Eastern Conference Home/Away PPM

Club	Home pts	HM	HPPG	Away pts	AM	APPG	Projected
Columbus Crew	29	15	1.93333333	12	13	0.92307692	48.5589744
Sporting Kansas City	26	14	1.85714286	14	14	1	48.5714286
Philadelphia Union	23	14	1.64285714	13	13	1	44.9285714
Houston Dynamo	27	14	1.92857143	9	15	0.6	42.9857143
D.C. United	15	15	1	19	10	1.9	49.3
New York Red Bulls	21	13	1.61538462	12	14	0.85714286	42.032967
Chicago Fire	23	13	1.76923077	4	14	0.28571429	34.9340659
New England Revolution	18	14	1.28571429	9	14	0.64285714	32.7857143
Toronto FC	18	14	1.28571429	9	15	0.6	32.0571429

Analysis

Almost all of the teams have only 1 point deviation from the straight PPM calculation. The only team that gets significantly better or worse is DC United. Since, surprisingly, they actually have earned more points on the road than at home.

Club	Home pts	HM	Home PPM	Away pts	AM	Away PPM	Projected
LA Galaxy	32	14	2.285714286	23	14	1.64285714	66.785714
Seattle Sounders FC	25	14	1.785714286	23	14	1.64285714	58.285714
FC Dallas	27	14	1.928571429	19	14	1.35714286	55.857143
Real Salt Lake	30	14	2.142857143	15	12	1.25	57.678571
Colorado Rapids	22	14	1.571428571	19	15	1.26666667	48.247619
Portland Timbers	26	14	1.857142857	7	13	0.53846154	40.725275
Chivas USA	16	14	1.142857143	15	14	1.07142857	37.642857
San Jose Earthquakes	19	15	1.266666667	10	12	0.83333333	35.7
Vancouver Whitecaps FC	17	12	1.416666667	5	15	0.33333333	29.75

Analysis

Really there is no difference to the standings in the West when I calculated them with Home and Away PPM. However two teams see the projected points go down as they are such good home teams but have struggled on the road, the Portland Timbers and RSL.

Eastern Conference Since July

Club	Since July Pts	Matches	ppm	Projected
Columbus Crew	17	12	1.888889	52.33333
Sporting Kansas City	23	13	2.555556	55.33333
Philadelphia Union	10	11	1.111111	43.77778
Houston Dynamo	17	12	1.888889	45.44444
D.C. United	16	10	1.777778	50
New York Red Bulls	9	10	1	40
Chicago Fire	11	10	1.222222	35.55556
New England Revolution	12	11	1.333333	35
Toronto FC	9	10	1	32

Analysis

I found this to be the most interesting because look at Philadelphia and New York. They have barely obtained 1 point per match over the last two and a half months. Compare that to the first half of the season where they both earned 1.4 and 1.6 points per match. .4 to .6 difference in points per match is huge over 17 games, it comes out to 7-10 points lost.

Western Conference Since July

Club	July on	Matches	ppm	projected
LA Galaxy	20	9	2.222222	68.33333
Seattle Sounders FC	17	9	1.888889	59.33333
FC Dallas	15	11	1.666667	56
Real Salt Lake	19	11	2.111111	61.88889
Colorado Rapids	19	12	2.111111	51.55556
Portland Timbers	16	12	1.777778	45.44444
Chivas USA	14	11	1.555556	40.33333
San Jose Earthquakes	9	12	1	36
Vancouver Whitecaps FC	8	9	0.888889	28.22222

Analysis

As you can see the teams that benefit the most are RSL and the Portland Timbers as they both increase by over 3 points, Portland gets a 5-6 point jump which is huge. The in form teams seemed to be in the Western Conference and the out of form teams in the Eastern. Based on these calculations Portland would be tied for the 9th spot with Houston and New York would miss the playoffs.

John Spencer says it will take 10 points to make the playoffs and based on the "form" PPM calculations Portland would be the in the 10th spot with 43 points. We shall see though.