Now that the Timbers have completed about a quarter of the season, well as close to a quarter as you can get with 34 games, I wanted to put together a projection of the final standings. Of course these standings will be skewed either high or low depending on the starts each team has had. Despite this it still is interesting to see some of the projected final points teams will have.
A quick note on my really simple methods: I take the points calculate points per game for home and away by dividing their points by the number of games. I then take those and calculate how many points they will gain if they continue earning points at the same pace at home and away. Really simple and easy to do and if any of you want to come up with a more complicated way I am all ears (I just don't have the time currently to do so).
More after the Jump
Lets take a quick look at the Eastern Conference just for the heck of it.
Eastern Conference Current Standings:
|
Club |
PTS |
GP |
W |
L |
T |
|
21 |
8 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
|
|
12 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
10 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
8 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
8 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
Philadelphia Union |
7 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
7 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
New England Revolution |
6 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
|
5 |
8 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
|
|
0 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
Eastern Conference Projected standings:
|
Club |
PTS |
Home GP |
Home pts |
HPPG |
Away GP |
Away Pts |
APPG |
Projected |
|
Sporting Kansas City |
21 |
4 |
12 |
3 |
4 |
9 |
2.250 |
89 |
|
D.C. United |
12 |
5 |
8 |
1.6 |
3 |
4 |
1.333 |
50 |
|
New York Red Bulls |
10 |
3 |
7 |
2.3333333 |
4 |
3 |
0.750 |
52 |
|
Chicago Fire |
8 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1.333 |
57 |
|
Houston Dynamo |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
8 |
1.600 |
27 |
|
Philadelphia Union |
7 |
3 |
4 |
1.3333333 |
3 |
3 |
1.000 |
40 |
|
Columbus Crew |
7 |
3 |
4 |
1.3333333 |
3 |
3 |
1.000 |
40 |
|
New England Revolution |
6 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
4 |
3 |
0.750 |
38 |
|
Montreal Impact |
5 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
0.167 |
37 |
|
Toronto FC |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0.000 |
0 |
Quick Analysis:
As you can see Toronto is projected as getting 0 points because of the fact they have not won a game yet this year. I highly doubt this will continue and the half-way point projections will probably be more accurate for them. Houston is the other outlier as they have yet to play a home game because of their new stadium is not yet finished. Even with all of their games being away this year 27 points on the road is a great projection. SKC will have to be MLS' best team ever to continue their torrid pace and hit 89 points.
With the changes to the playoffs this year the Eastern Conference standings do not have any bearing on who makes it from the Western Conference. So let's take a look at what we really care about.
Western Conference Current Standings:
|
# |
Club |
PTS |
GP |
W |
L |
T |
|
1 |
16 |
7 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
16 |
9 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
3 |
11 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
4 |
11 |
8 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
5 |
10 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
6 |
9 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
|
|
7 |
9 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
|
|
8 |
9 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
|
|
9 |
7 |
7 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
Western Conference Projected Standings:
|
Club |
PTS |
HG |
Home Pts |
HPPG |
AG |
Away Pts |
APPG |
Projected |
|
San Jose Earthquakes |
16 |
4 |
9 |
2.25 |
3 |
7 |
2.3333333 |
78 |
|
Real Salt Lake |
16 |
4 |
9 |
2.25 |
5 |
7 |
1.4 |
62 |
|
Vancouver Whitecaps FC |
11 |
4 |
7 |
1.75 |
3 |
4 |
1.3333333 |
52 |
|
FC Dallas |
11 |
5 |
11 |
2.2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
37 |
|
Seattle Sounders FC |
10 |
4 |
9 |
2.25 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
55 |
|
LA Galaxy |
9 |
4 |
6 |
1.5 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
51 |
|
Chivas USA |
9 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
9 |
3 |
51 |
|
Colorado Rapids |
9 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
0.75 |
47 |
|
Portland Timbers |
7 |
4 |
6 |
1.5 |
3 |
1 |
0.3333333 |
31 |
Quick Analysis:
As you can see San Jose and RSL are currently the cream of the crop in the West but can San Jose keep up their winning ways on the road. 2.33 points per game on the road puts SJ in historically great territory and I don't think they are that good and we should see them come down to earth over the next 6-8 games. Chivas has not won at home but is projected to win all their road games and earn 51 points on the road, which is not going to happen.
As you can Portland is projected to be dead last in the west but this can change if they start earning points on the road and defend their home field. Portland will need to get the away PPM up to about 1 to 1.5 and their home PPM up to 2 to 2.5 in order for the playoffs to be even a consideration. Overall it is not doom and gloom for the Timbers but they have their work cut out for them.
My best guess as to the points cut off for the Playoffs will be right around 45 points, last year it was 46 points, but in order to be sure a team should shoot for 50 points. This means Portland needs to earn 43 points over their next 27 games or 1.58 points per game. Certainly a possibility but they will need to kick start that with a win tomorrow over the Expansion Montreal Impact.