The Western Conference Playoff Picture: Where Will Portland land?

If the season ended today the Portland Timbers would be the last team to get into the playoffs. However there are still games to be played, about one quarter of the season, and this means there is still plenty of time to move up or down the standings for 8 out of the 9 Western Conference teams.

I used a committee (of one) to determine the outcomes of games and a very scientific approach (I had my 3 year old daughter point to which team will win, just kidding). Of course I will more than likely be wrong and you can tell me how wrong I was later but for now go ahead and argue with my choices and tell me why I am wrong in the comments.

Here are the current standings:

#	Club	PTS
1	Real Salt Lake	48
2	Seattle Sounders FC	46
3	LA Galaxy	43
4	Colorado Rapids	42
5	Portland Timbers	42
6	FC Dallas	40
7	Vancouver Whitecaps	37
8	San Jose Earthquakes	37
9	Chivas USA	25

The only team not in the playoff picture is Chivas USA. Which means each game played between two Western Conference teams is a battle for the playoffs(MLS HQ has to be very happy about that fact). Even though 8 teams are in currently in the playoff picture the 8 teams all have wildly differing remaining schedules.

Remaining Schedules

Colorado	Vancouver	Dallas	LAG	Portland	Seattle	San Jose	RSL
FC Dallas	at San Jose	at Colorado	At DC united	At Chivas	RSL	Vancouver	at Seattle
at Portland	at montreal	at New York	Seattle	Colorado	at LAG	Montreal	San Jose
Seattle	RSL	Columbus	at Portland	LAG	New York	at RSL	at Vancouver
At San Jose	Portland	at RSL	Chivas	at Vancouver	at Colorado	at Chivas	DC United
Vancouver	at Seattle	Chicago	Montreal	Seattle	Vancouver Portland	Colorado	FC Dallas
at Vancouver	at Colorado	Seattle	San Jose	RSL	at FC Dallas	at LAG	at Portland
	Colorado	at San Jose	at Seattle	at Chivas	LAG	FC Dallas	Chivas

As you can see the Portland Timbers have a fairly balanced schedule and play all of the tough opponents at home. Colorado on the other hand plays only teams currently in the hunt for the playoffs and plays three tough road games. The LA Galaxy not only have their MLS regular season games but they also have CCL games intermixed. In fact they play 10 between now and the end of the season and over the next 18 days they play 5 of them (the last of those 5 is against Portland on the 29th of September).

After looking at the schedules I wanted to look at the max number of points each team could earn if they won all their remaining games.

Team	Points	games	games left	max points
RSL	48	28	6	66
Seattle	46	26	8	70
LA Galaxy	43	27	7	64
Colorado Rapids	42	28	6	60
Portland	42	27	7	63
FC Dallas	40	27	7	61
Vancouver	37	27	7	58
San Jose	37	28	6	55
Chivas	25	28	6	43

Portland and Colorado have to earn 2 more points and Chivas will be eliminated from the playoffs. Seattle could win the SS if they won all their remaining games and Colorado would finish outside the playoffs. Of course this could not happen because a lot of the remaining games occur amongst the western teams, which means if you want to predict the final standings you need to predict the results of the remaining games.

San Jose

San Jose	result
Vancouver	tie
Montreal	tie
at RSL	loss
at Chivas	win
Colorado	win
at LAG	loss
FC Dallas	loss
	8 points (12 max 6 min)

San Jose has a tough schedule but they could win all of their home games and this could mean they earn 12 or so points over their final 7 games. I just don't see them winning at RSL or LAG but they could earn a draw in the second one.

Vancouver

Vancouver	Result
at San Jose	tie
at montreal	loss
RSL	tie
Portland	tie
at Seattle	loss
at Colorado	loss
Colorado	win
	6 points (Max 8)

Talk about a team in a free fall right now, over their last 10 games they are 3-5-2 and two of those wins were are the beginning of the 10 games. Take those two games out and they are 1-5-2 over their last 8 games. I just don't see Vancouver pulling out wins against RSL and Portland at home and all of their road games are in places were it is difficult to earn a result.

FC Dallas

Dallas
at Colorado	loss
at New York	loss
Columbus	win
at RSL	loss
Chicago	win
Seattle	tie
at San Jose	loss
	7 Points

FC Dallas has struggled on the road all year and in their final seven games of the season they have to play teams that have combined to win 33 games at home, the lowest win total of their road opponents is Colorado with 7. They have two winnable games at home (Columbus and Chicago) and one game which is a toss up (Seattle) which they could end up losing. In the end their road woes doom them and they struggle to earn 7 points.

Portland

Portland	Result
At Chivas	Win
Colorado	Win
LAG	Win
at Vancouver	tie
Seattle	tie
RSL	tie
at Chivas	Win
	15 points (9 Min and 18 Max)

Portland has arguably the easiest schedule out of the 8 teams and this is mainly because they have Chivas USA twice. The other reason is they have all of the playoff contenders but Vancouver at home where they are undefeated since the loss to Montreal way back in March. They are also catching LA at the end of a congested time in their schedule and I see Colorado having a tough time earning a result here in Portland. The RSL and Seattle games can swing either way depending on the health of certain players which is why I think it could be as high as 18 points or as low as 9 points. Which is why I settled on 15 points as a possibility.

Colorado

Colorado	Result
FC Dallas	Win
at Portland	loss
Seattle	tie
At San Jose	loss
Vancouver	Win
at Vancouver	loss
	7 points (6 points min and 9 points max)

They have the toughest schedule out of all 8 of the teams. Their road games are difficult places to play and I fully expect them to struggle to earn points. Their last game against Vancouver could be for a playoff spot or it could be a meaningless game for one/both team(s).

LA Galaxy

LAG	Result
At DC united	Win
Seattle	Tie
at Portland	Loss
Chivas	Win
Montreal	Win
San Jose	Win
at Seattle	loss
	13 points (Max 15)

On paper their schedule looks like it is easier than Portland's schedule but they have three CCL games intermixed with their seven remaining games. Two of those CCL games alternate with the first three games of their remaining seven. Which means they play 5 games in 18 days. After that the congesting is less pronounced but still might set them up to have dead legs entering the final 4 games of the season.

Seattle

Seattle	result
RSL	tie
at LAG	tie
New York	Win
at Colorado	tie
Vancouver	win
Portland	tie
at FC Dallas	loss
LAG	tie
	11 points (Max 15)

Seattle's toughest part of the season was the first third and their easiest was the middle third. The final third of the season will be for playoff positioning and it won't be a cake walk. Out of their 8 games 6 of them are against teams currently in a playoff position and one of those games is a Cascadia Cup game. Any of the games that end in ties could go either way and you could see Seattle win the SS shield if they win those games or you could see them fall to third place in the standings. I went with the middle ground and have them earning 11 points over the final 8 games of the season, especially with the other teams needing to earn points.

RSL

RSL	Result
at Seattle	tie
San Jose	win
at Vancouver	tie
DC United	win
FC Dallas	win
at Portland	tie
Chivas	win
	15 points (min 12)

RSL is the only team in the league that has a positive goal differential on the road. Which means games at Seattle, Vancouver and Portland are games in which they could earn a result. The games they have at home are all winnable games, especially against DC and Chivas, and I full expect them to win all of them. This means RSL wins the West and possible the Supporter's Shield depending on what happens in the East.

Overall standings

Here is where I think all of the teams will end up based on looking at the remaining schedules of each team.

Team	Predicted points	Predicted total
RSL	15	63
Seattle	11	57
LA Galaxy	13	56
Colorado Rapids	7	49
Portland	15	57
FC Dallas	7	47
Vancouver	6	43
San Jose	8	45

Portland will make the playoffs this year and I think as the third place team in the conference. This sets up a date with Seattle in the conference semifinals.