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After Four Years of Gavin Wilkinson, What Do We Know? Pt. II

MLS Expansion Draft: The Twelfth Best Way To Fill Your Roster

The 2010 MLS Expansion Draft is absolutely fascinating to look back on with four years of hindsight.

Future MLS coaches Greg Berhalter and Carl Robinson were both exposed in that draft, and Pablo Mastroeni probably should have been (Counter-counter-point: he probably shouldn't have been an MLS head coach, either). Future MLS MVP Mike Magee was exposed by LA during that draft. A good quarter of the current starting left backs in the league were exposed in that draft.

But even with guys like Magee, Dan Kennedy, and Dax McCarty available, Wilkinson's and Spencer's strategy was dismissive if anything. They determined that the top talent available, Dax McCarty coming off an All-Star Season, was best used as trade bait. They then selected Eric Brunner and Adam Moffat, players who they clearly saw as having some future with the team. After that, I would suggest that they felt that the remaining talent available to them was poorly suited to an MLS future. Out of the seven remaining picks, only two players were not selected with the intention to be traded for allocation money or draft picks: David Horst and Peter Lowry. They were so intent on stockpiling draft picks and allocation money that they drafted Anthony Wallace--a guy who they immediately traded back to the Rapids--over David Horst, a guy who they presumably rated highly enough to pick, and who ended up becoming a large part of the Timbers defense for the next several years. A full list of the picks and ensuing trades follows below:

1. Dax McCarty-FC Dallas

McCarty was famously traded to DC United for Rodney Wallace and a fourth round Superdraft pick. DC also ended up with some Garber Mystery Bucks (aka allocation money) in the deal. Clearly, Portland made out pretty well on this one. Dax is a pretty solid midfielder, but the Timbers appear to have managed to sell high, as he's never quite replicated the 2010 season he had with Dallas.

1. Whitecaps: Sanna Nyassi-Seattle Sounders

2. Eric Brunner-Columbus Crew

Probably the best pick the Timbers made in this draft. Brunner was never a great centerback, but I think just on the basis of consistency, he was probably the best centerback that Portland had up until they paid out for Liam Ridgewell.

2. Whitecaps: Atiba Harris-FC Dallas

3. Adam Moffat-Columbus Crew

Adam Moffat lives a lot larger in Timbers' collective memory than he does in the record books. You may be surprised to learn that he never started a game for the Timbers. He eventually made four appearances for Portland before being traded to Houston for Mike Chabala, Lovell Palmer, and an international roster spot.

3. Whitecaps: Nathan Sturgis-Seattle Sounders

4. Anthony Wallace-Colorado Rapids

Wallace was immediately traded back to Colorado for Magical Garber Dollars. Although he was well thought of at the time, he only started 10 games for Colorado in 2011, and eventually was dropped from the roster altogether. He currently plays for Tampa Bay in the NASL.

4. Whitecaps: Shea Salinas-Philadelphia Union

5. David Horst-Real Salt Lake

Horst is probably the 1a best pick from the expansion draft. Injuries kept him from turning into the kind of high-level MLS centerback that would occasionally flash through from game to game. But with Eric Brunner, he formed a relatively solid centerback pairing for the first few years of the Timbers' existence; certainly better than one might have expected to get out of an expansion draft.

5. Whitecaps: Alan Gordon-Chivas USA

6. Robbie Findley-Real Salt Lake

Findley was headed to England when Portland selected him. He played (poorly) for Nottingham Forest for a couple of years before returning to the league, at which point, RSL bought him back from the Timbers for Magical Garber Dollars. His play in 2014 has been impressively average.

6. Whitecaps: O'Brian White-Toronto FC

7. Peter Lowry-Chicago Fire

Lowry was selected, I suspect, on the strength of a pair of particularly beautiful goals that he scored while playing with Chicago. With the Timbers, he never managed anything similar, only made three appearances, and has had a more notable career as a journalist than as a soccer player.

7. Whitecaps: Alejandro Moreno-Philadelphia Union

8. Jonathan Bornstein-Chivas USA

In 2013, Portland traded Bornstein's rights back to Chivas for Ben Zemanski and some magical money. Presumably, those rights evaporated with Chivas USA, and Bornstein would now be subject to the allocation draft for returning USMNT players.

8. Whitecaps: Joe Cannon-San Jose Earthquakes

9. Jordan Graye-DC United

Graye was eventually traded to Houston for a fourth round Superdraft pick. He hung around with the Timbers for a little under a month before the Timbers started looking to get rid of him. Clearly John Spencer was not impressed with his game.

9. Whitecaps: Jonathan Leathers-Sporting Kansas City

10. Arturo Alvarez-San Jose Earthquakes

Alvarez was immediately traded to Real Salt Lake for a second round Superdraft pick. He was a career backup there and in the Portugese First Division, where he eventually moved. Currently he is a starter for a team in the Hungarian League.

10. Whitecaps: John Thorrington-Chicago Fire

What went right?

Even with 20/20 hindsight, it's difficult to quibble too much with the Timbers' assessment. It's hard to look past League MVP Mike Magee on this one, but it's highly doubtful that he would have ever developed into the player he is if he had been crammed into John Spencer's system. And sure, there are a few players like Eric Avila or Dominic Oduro that the early Timbers probably could have used to some effect. But for the most part? The guys available were not up to scratch, and very few of them are still in the league. The Timbers did a good job converting sub-standard players into allocation money, and you have to credit Wilkinson for that.

It should also be pointed out that the Whitecaps draft was a total cock-up in comparison. Outside of Joe Cannon and maybe Atiba Harris, Vancouver didn't get a significant contribution from any of their picks. That's not to say that they picked poorly. Shea Salinas and Alan Gordon were certainly solid pickups for an expansion team. But neither one saw much playing time, and it was up to San Jose to find a better way to utilize their talents.

What went wrong?

Despite the overall lack of talent in this expansion draft, there were three points where the Timbers arguably could have done a much better job:

  1. Specifically left fullback. This was a position that plagued John Spencer up to the point that he was fired. And Spencer himself shares a lot of the blame for that. His system put a lot of pressure on the fullbacks, asking them to make breakneck runs, put in perfect crosses, and then sprint back down to the other side of the field to prevent counter-attacks. The Timbers were never really able to find their unicorn fullback, and it's only been after a shift away from Spencer's system that we've seen fullbacks who didn't end the game stumbling off the field with haunted looks in their eyes. Still, I look at the expansion draft and I see at least five guys who would go on to be starting fullbacks—a few who would be very good fullbacks—in MLS: Brandon Barklage, Corey Ashe, Seth Sinovic, Chance Myers, Leonardo Gonzalez, and Steven Beitashour. The fact that any GM would have looked at that group and said, "Nah, I don't see any future here," is something of a red mark. That said, I'm a little bit inclined to put this one on Spencer, and his notoriously goofy attitudes towards fullbacks. Spencer believed that fullback was "not a difficult position". This despite the fact that in his system, the fullbacks were supposed to perform almost every aspect of the game at a high level: as competent defenders who could be good on the ball and could put in deadly accurate crosses, all with the ability to recover from their positions high up the field. Spencer wanted fast, athletic guys at fullback, speedsters who he could quickly train up (it being such an easy position to play) and put on the field. His preferences ran more to converted midfielders than solid defenders who could occasionally make a forward run. The counter-counter point here is that I think a really good GM would have looked at someone like Seth Sinovic or Chance Myers and said, "Actually, John, this one might make a good backup."

  2. Goalkeepers. We saw some weird moves at this position at the time, and I don't think we've ever gotten a complete explanation for what went down. There were a number of veteran goalkeepers available in the 2011 Expansion draft, but for the Timbers' purposes, we'll focus on the two most relevant: Troy Perkins and Dan Kennedy. Perkins was left exposed in the expansion draft, where the Timbers did not select him. Four days later, the Timbers traded Cronin and allocation money for Perkins, paying out for what had been available for free. I think it's pretty clear that this was a byproduct of the Rodney Wallace trade, an agreement that Portland would not pick any more of DC's players if the trade went through (though I don't know if I've read anything confirming that). But to this day, I'm mystified by the exclusion of Dan Kennedy. Perhaps he was next on the list when Vancouver took Alan Gordon (Chivas was then able to protect Kennedy). Perhaps Portland and Vancouver were both unsettled by Chivas exposing one of their best players without need, inspiring suspicions that there was something wrong with him. For whatever reason, both teams passed on possibly the best available player from that draft, or at least the most consistent over the next four years. And unlike a guy like Mike Magee, Kennedy was a known quantity at that point, not one of these guys were you never would have guessed what they were about to do. I can see looking at Perkins, who had an MLS goalkeeper of the year under his belt, and choosing him all things even. I don't understand going out of your way to pay for Perkins when Kennedy was available for free. Kennedy is basically a stronger version of Perkins, without the propensity for giving up long shots. It's tempting to say that the FO went with resume rather than scouting on this one, but you can't really say anything definitive, other than it was definitively a questionable move in retrospect. Troy Perkins was still a fine goalkeeper for the Timbers, so it turned out to be a no-harm-no-foul situation in the end.

  3. Chris Shuler vs. David Horst. This one's also a head-scratcher. In retrospect, Horst was one of the best Timbers selections from the expansion draft. But Shuler was the better player then with the better upside, and has pretty much remained the same to present. Real Salt Lake fans were absolutely sure they were going to lose him, and were left happily befuddled when he survived the process. In hindsight, I'm pretty positive that this was a Spencer pick. At the risk of drawing early conclusions, I'll say that one of the few defining aspects of Wilkinson's management is his propensity to acquire big, strong, athletic defenders in preference to just about every other facet of their game. I think if Wilkinson has full control here, he picks Shuler every time. That said, there's no concrete evidence towards this one way or the other.

Even with these missteps, I think Wilkinson has to get credit with running a pretty masterful expansion draft. Given a group of players that he didn't really want, he used them as an allocation dollar bank, with players like Robbie Findley and Jonathan Bornstein retaining value long after most people had forgotten that Portland still owned their rights. I find that pretty surprising, as I remember the expansion draft under Wilkinson being pretty underwhelming, a view that I think was pretty common at the time.

Next time: Wilkinson signs his first MLS players and begins the inaugural season.

This FanPost was written by a Stumptown Footy community member and does not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the site or its staff.

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