New season. New predictions. Attendance navel gazing.
Unlike the shot in the dark MLS Cup Final predictions, my predictions on attendance have at a minimum the pretence of watching trends and making judgments on tidbits of news reports. I'll use a quote from last year's prediction: "Using reliable past trends and current outlooks on stadia capacities, scheduling, and market pulse, I will divine a simple average and total attendance. I'm not a numbers or statistics guru, but I have been following the league's attendance for over [six] years now. The predictions are purely for nonacademic purposes to otherwise fill the off-the-field discussions surrounding soccer. In brief I will post my predictions for each individual team, then aggregate those guesses into my prediction. Prepare to discuss in agreement or disagreement in the comments."
2012 Prediction Fan Post
2013 Prediction Fan Post
2014 Prediction Fan Post
Review of 2014
Best average attendance, highest aggregate attendance, 12 teams improved their year-over-year average, 15 teams above their historical average, and the greatest attendance dumpster fire in MLS history still didn't put a dent in denying increases in MLS as a whole. If you're keeping score Chivas USA was actually 51.8% off their historical average of 14,638 per game, registering at a moribund 7,063. MLS hadn't seen any team even close to that low in attendance since the Miami Fusion at 7,460 in 2000.
There was no World Cup bounce. Just the normal curve you see with higher attendances early on that dip around spring, followed by steady increases from mid-late summer until the playoffs. The Portland Timbers predictably ended another season with a standard deviation of 0. Real Salt Lake, Sporting Kansas City, and FC Dallas have increased year over year for four years running. DC gained life again from good results on the field.
Enough review of the results. Now to review my predictions.
|
Total | Average |
Predicted | 6,105,890 | 18,904 |
Actual | 6,184,980 | 19,149 |
% Difference |
1.30% |
My second best prediction to date! Only 2012's prediction was better at 1.14%. On aggregate I was pretty close, and taking a look at the team by team predictions I was wildly off on quite a few but came out fine in the end. However, the past is behind us and two new teams enter. A lot of changes are afloat which will make this an especially difficult year to gauge for a few teams. I have to decide whether to be conservative or ambitious on my predictions.
2013 AVG | 2013 Total | 2014 Avg | 2014 Total | % | |
CHI | 15228 | 258876 | 16076 | 273293 | 5.57% |
CLB | 16080 | 273360 | 16881 | 286976 | 4.98% |
COL | 15440 | 262480 | 15028 | 256386 | -2.32% |
CUSA | 8366 | 142222 | 7063 | 120063 | -15.58% |
DAL | 15373 | 261341 | 16816 | 285880 | 9.39% |
DCU | 13646 | 231982 | 17030 | 289506 | 24.80% |
HOU | 19923 | 338691 | 20117 | 341994 | 0.98% |
LAG | 22152 | 376584 | 21258 | 361392 | -4.03% |
MTL | 20603 | 350251 | 17421 | 296159 | -15.44% |
NER | 14844 | 252348 | 16681 | 283583 | 12.38% |
NYR | 19461 | 330837 | 19421 | 330162 | -0.20% |
PHI | 17867 | 303739 | 17631 | 299730 | -1.32% |
POR | 20674 | 351458 | 20814 | 353838 | 0.68% |
RSL | 19218 | 326706 | 20351 | 345971 | 5.90% |
SEA | 44038 | 748646 | 43734 | 743485 | -0.69% |
SJE | 12765 | 217005 | 14974 | 254098 | 17.09% |
SKC | 19709 | 335053 | 20003 | 340058 | 1.49% |
TFC | 18131 | 308227 | 22086 | 375463 | 21.81% |
VAN | 20038 | 340646 | 20408 | 346943 | 1.85% |
TOTAL | 18608 | 6010452 | 19149 | 6184980 | 1.30% |
Team by Team Analysis
Chicago Fire. HOLD. They've restocked the team with a lot of flashy foreign signings no one has heard of. If they aren't mediocre and finish matches in draws they'll draw more to their stadium. But the ownership still doesn't do much. Still hard to arrive at by anything other than car.
Chivas USA. Please. One last moment of reflection. HOORAY FOR JETTISONED DEAD WEIGHT!
Colorado Rapids. UP. MLS All-Star Game cannot count, but that has to help improve the awareness that the team plays there, right?
Columbus Crew. UP. Stadium improvements. Sparkling new kits. New Crest. Good talent. Result? Butts in seats.
FC Dallas. UP, slightly. The stadium Frisco is no longer exurban, but inside a large city. Requisite increases in attendance if the team stays playoff hopeful. Not a flashy original turnaround like KC, but a right the ship that has paid dividends. They've also added more seats to their behind-the-goal beer garden. Increased atmosphere is a positive.
D.C. United. UP. Team improved on the abysmal 2013. Attendance improved. Amazing concept, no? Add in excitement over new stadium with possible perks by securing season tickets now.
Houston Dynamo. DOWN, slightly. One more year removed from new stadium, lack of success for a MLS Cup Final spoiled fan base. New coach from the Old World has no time to learn in the Western Conference gladiator arena.
Sporting Kansas City. HOLD. "As I wrote last year 'They're already above capacity as an average.' " Which is what I wrote last year.
LA Galaxy. UP, slightly. MLS Cup winners without LD? Add Gerrard. LA likes super priced talent. And a plus for SGs: Tailgating allowed in stadium parking lots for the first year ever.
Montreal Impact. HOLD. Unless the team is better and pouting Saputo improves his attitude, the results on the field will make it hard for fans to have a strong desire to attend.
New England Revolution. UP. Strong candidate for winning the East this year. Soccer fans in NE can be bothered to make the journey to Gillette. Kraft cannot.
New York City FC. Welcome Man City Lite. I hope your Bronx Bomber landlords will learn to tolerate your presence. Have sold over 14,000 season tickets. Opening 300 level seats for their home opener. Capacity for soccer set normally at 27,528. Expect strong numbers but nothing earth shattering.
New York Red Bulls. DOWN. No Henry. No Cahill. No PETKE!?! No bueno.
Orlando City SC. My bet? Will impress more than NYCFC on and off (Nevermind) the field. My most speculative guess since they will be at the Orange Citrus Bowl this year. Capacity capped at 19,500. Nearly 12,000 season ticket holders already. First match is open to the entire stadium and over 40,000 sold as of two weeks ago.
Philadelphia Union. HOLD. No clue. Which is what the SOB say about their FO. Perhaps they need another GK.
Portland Timbers. HOLD, up slightly. A row here, a row there. All taken. ~200 seats. Golob said they've considered expansion in a few years. Did that include or not include terracing?
Real Salt Lake. HOLD. They've almost sold out of all their season tickets that are available. Strong renewals and new buyers. They're pushing above listed capacity almost every game now. In fact, last year's average was above capacity.
San Jose Earthquakes. UP, a lot. Goodbye old stadium. Hello new stadium. Levi and Stanford stadiums will push this up further. Team has sold almost 12,000 season tickets. Capacity of new stadium is 18,500 but throw in the Levi/Stanford games and you've got a massive change over last year.
Seattle Sounders FC. UP. www.dontlook.jpg (although their average did decrease year-over-year).
Toronto FC. UP. Big Bloody Deal Part Two (Part Duex to stay in line with Canadian labeling laws). With stadium increases over the next two seasons they're going to improve this number. Capacity of BMO Field is going to be 30,000 this year.
Vancouver Whitecaps. UP, slightly. So when is the Whitecaps FO going to increase capacity? Seriously. They need to do it soon. They don't even do it for marquee games.
Prediction
The big prediction:
Total | Average | |
Predicted |
7,065,710 | 20,782 |
New milestones! 20,000 average and 7 million total attendance.
With 17 more games than last year the total naturally goes up assuming the average stays relatively the same. However, the average gets massive boost over last year from new entrants, increases across the board and stadiums with higher capacities for some. In fact, take all estimated season tickets and there are already almost 3,500,000 tickets sold or about half my total predicted attendance.* I'm really high on this year. In spite of the uncertainty of the CBA talks the fans have put down their money on this exciting product that we like to watch and discuss.
*203,750 season tickets as an MLS wide estimate at 17 games yields 3,463,000.
Team by Team Numbers
2014 Avg | 2014 Total | 2015 Avg | 2014 Total | % | |
CHI | 16076 | 273293 | 16100 | 273700 | 0.15% |
CLB | 16881 | 286976 | 17350 | 294950 | 2.78% |
COL | 15082 | 256386 | 15600 | 265200 | 3.44% |
CUSA | 7063 | 120063 | --- | --- | RIP |
DAL | 16816 | 285880 | 17000 | 289000 | 1.09% |
DCU | 17030 | 289506 | 17600 | 299200 | 3.35% |
HOU | 20117 | 341994 | 19980 | 339660 | -0.68% |
LAG | 21258 | 361392 | 21500 | 365500 | 1.14% |
MTL | 17421 | 296159 | 17400 | 295800 | -0.12% |
NER | 16681 | 283583 | 17700 | 300900 | 6.11% |
NYC | --- | --- | 24500 | 416500 | --- |
NYR | 19421 | 330162 | 18100 | 307700 | -6.80% |
ORL | --- | --- | 21500 | 365500 | --- |
PHI | 17631 | 299730 | 17650 | 300050 | 0.11% |
POR | 20814 | 353838 | 21000 | 357000 | 0.89% |
RSL | 20351 | 345971 | 20650 | 351050 | 1.47% |
SEA | 43734 | 743485 | 44500 | 756500 | 1.75% |
SJE | 14974 | 254098 | 21000 | 357000 | 40.50% |
SKC | 20003 | 340058 | 19800 | 336600 | -1.02% |
TFC | 22086 | 375463 | 26000 | 442000 | 17.72% |
VAN | 20408 | 346943 | 20700 | 351900 | 1.43% |
TOTAL | 19150 | 6184980 | 20782 | 7065710 | 14.24% |
Closing Remarks
The start of the twentieth iteration of the MLS season: Stronger than ever and will continue to improve as stadiums are built, fan bases build traditions and soccer becomes more popular and exciting. There is still more room to grow as an outdoor stadium sport. Once it was thought that 18,000 seater stadiums were the right size just 5 years ago. But the interest has grown and 18,000 is now going to be well below the MLS average. Lets hope DC United can find ways to squeeze 22,000 or more according to recent reports.
On a global scale MLS will slot in at the 9th spot for soccer leagues if you include the Indian Super League, which is the effectively a summer exhibition for Zidane and company.
MLS looks healthy, doesn't it? Now about that CBA for the players Don?