Contemplation Day is over, and Decision Day looms as we enter the final week of the 34-week slog that was the MLS 2017 season. For the Portland Timbers, Decision Day will NOT be the final home match of the 2017 season as they have clinched at least 4th place in the West and the home playoff game that comes with it. A win gives them 1st place in the West (and the Cascadia Cup), while a Loss or a Draw could still find them in 2nd with a bye (although Seattle would reclaim Cascadia Cup) if other results go their way.
An interesting note on how much better the East is this year; Vancouver leads the West with 52 points, a Timbers win would give them the West with 53 points. Right now that is good for 6TH in the East. The biggest winner this week is Houston climbing four spots and the biggest loser is Kansas City falling 4 spots following their home and away series this week.
Some Bookkeeping notes, as everyone has only 1 game left "remaining games" will not be included, along with "remaining schedule" as well, as there is so much disparity due to the small sample size of 1 game. Also, Overall Pace will not be included as everyone not named Toronto is on 1 point and change per game so their "Pace" would be 1 point more than they currently have.
COMPONENTS OF SFPI
PERFORMANCE SCORE: 100% determined by results on the field made up of following components
PPG Score: Overall Points Per Game added to Points Per Game over last five matches, with last five being given more weight. Single largest component of SFPI
Goal Difference Per Game: Overall Goal Difference divided by games played.
Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, equal number of points subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over entire season.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE: Average Performance Score of all of a teams opponents to date, accounts for road games by adding a percentage of a teams Home PPG to performance score for that match. Weighted at less than 100%
(*Above Red Line, **Clinched Playoff spot)
(all games are Sunday Oct 22 at 1pm Pacific)
1 **TORONTO FC (68pts 20W-5L-8D) SCORE: 11.6577 (+0.0161) PREV: 1 (NC) H1/L10
CONSECUTIVE WEEKS AT #1 13 SCHEDULE: 20 (-3)
LAST WEEK: W 1-0 vs Montreal NEXT WEEK: at (4) Atlanta
2 **COLUMBUS CREW (53pts 16W-12L-5D) SCORE: 9.1126 (+0.5167) PREV: 4 (+2) H1/L16
SCHEDULE: 8 (-1) LAST WEEK: W 1-0 at Orlando NEXT WEEK: at (5) New York City
3 **CHICAGO FIRE (55pts 16W-10L-7D) SCORE: 9.0709 (+0.6449) PREV: 5 (+2) H1/L14
SCHEDULE: 11 (-1) LAST WEEK: W 3-2 vs Philadelphia NEXT WEEK: at (9) Houston
4 **ATLANTA UNITED (54pts 15W-9L-9D) SCORE: 8.5687 (-0.508) PREV: 2 (-2) H2/L12
SCHEDULE: 22 (-1) LAST WEEK: D 0-0 at New York RB NEXT WEEK: vs (1) Toronto
5 **NEW YORK CITY FC (56pts 16W-9L-8D) SCORE: 8.4563 (-0.1654) PREV: 3 (-2) H2/L12
SCHEDULE: 15 (-3) LAST WEEK: L 2-1 at New England NEXT WEEK: vs (2) Columbus
6 **PORTLAND TIMBERS (50pts 14W-11L-8D) SCORE: 8.0532 (+0.7137) PREV: 8 (+2) H1/L17
SCHEDULE: 9 (+2) LAST WEEK: W 4-0 vs DC NEXT WEEK: vs (8) Vancouver
**SEATTLE SOUNDERS (50pts 13W-9L-11D) SCORE: 7.6767 (+0.8036) PREV: 9 (+2) H3/L17
SCHEDULE: 14 (+1) LAST WEEK: W 4-0 vs Dallas NEXT WEEK: vs (20) Colorado
8 **VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (52pts 15W-11L-7D) SCORE: 7.3089 (-0.0977) PREV: 7 (-1) H3/L22
SCHEDULE: 18 (NC) LAST WEEK: D 1-1 vs San Jose NEXT WEEK: at (6) Portland
9 **HOUSTON DYNAMO (47pts 12W-10L-11D) 7.2641 (+1.4546) PREV: 13 (+4) H4/L17
SCHEDULE: 21 (+1) LAST WEEK: W 2-0 vs Kansas City, D 0-0 at Kansas City
NEXT WEEK: vs (3) Chicago
10 **SPORTING KANSAS CITY (49pts 12W-8L-13D) SCORE: 6.5311 (-1.078) PREV: 6 (-4) H2/L11
SCHEDULE: 17 (+2) LAST WEEK: L 2-0 at Houston, D 0-0 vs Houston
NEXT WEEK: at (14) Salt Lake
11 **NEW YORK RED BULLS (47pts 13W-12L-8D) SCORE: 6.3315 (-0.0952) PREV: 10 (-1) H6/L19
SCHEDULE: 6 (+2) LAST WEEK: D 0-0 vs Atlanta NEXT WEEK: at (22) DC
12 FC DALLAS (43pts 10W-10L-13D) SCORE: 5.7535 (-0.3641) PREV: 12 (NC) H1/L16
SCHEDULE: 12 (+1) LAST WEEK: L 4-0 at Seattle NEXT WEEK: vs Los Angeles
13 *SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (43pts 12W-14L-7D) SCORE: 5.4571 (+0.6441) PREV: 16 (+3) H5/L17
SCHEDULE: 13 (+3) LAST WEEK: D 1-1 at Vancouver NEXT WEEK: vs (19) Minnesota
14 REAL SALT LAKE (42pts 12W-15L-6D) SCORE: 5.3539 (-0.9025) PREV: 11 (-3) H9/L22
SCHEDULE: 19 (+1) LAST WEEK: L 1-0 at Colorado NEXT WEEK: vs (10) Kansas City
15 NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION (42pts 12W-15L-6D) SCORE: 5.3126 (+1.0107) PREV: 18 (+3) H5/L18
SCHEDULE: 1 (NC) LAST WEEK: W 2-1 vs New York City NEXT WEEK: at (18) Montreal
16 PHILADELPHIA UNION (39pts 10W-14L-9D) SCORE: 4.9549 (-0.2591) PREV: 15 (-1) H6/L22
SCHEDULE: 9 (+2) LAST WEEK: L 3-2 at Chicago NEXT WEEK: vs (17) Orlando
17 ORLANDO CITY SC (39pts 10W-14L-9D) SCORE: 4.267 (-1.3335) PREV: 14 (-3) H2/L19
SCHEDULE: 3 (+1) LAST WEEK: L 1-0 vs Columbus NEXT WEEK: at (16) Philadelphia
18 MONTREAL IMPACT (39pts 11W-16L-6D) SCORE: 3.7058 (+0.0592) PREV: 19 (+1) H6/L19
SCHEDULE: 2 (+1) LAST WEEK: L 1-0 at Toronto NEXT WEEK: vs (15) New England
19 MINNESOTA UNITED (36pts 10W-17L-6D) SCORE: 3.5924 (-1.0423) PREV: 17 (-2) H17/L22
SCHEDULE: 5 (NC) LAST WEEK: L 3-0 at Los Angeles NEXT WEEK: at (13) San Jose
20 COLORADO RAPIDS (33pts 9W-18L-6D) SCORE: 3.0253 (+0.6785) PREV: 21 (+1) H17/L22
SCHEDULE: 10 (-1) LAST WEEK: W 1-0 vs Salt Lake NEXT WEEK: at (7) Seattle
21 LOS ANGELES GALAXY (32pts 8W-17L-8D) SCORE: 2.4457 (+1.0463) PREV: 22 (+1) H3/L22
SCHEDULE: 7 (-1) LAST WEEK: W 3-0 vs Minnesota NEXT WEEK: at (12) Dallas
22 DC UNITED (32pts 9W-19L-5D) SCORE: 2.2445 (-0.1104) PREV: 20 (-2) H8/L22
SCHEDULE: 4 (-2) LAST WEEK: L 4-0 at Portland NEXT WEEK: at (11) New York RB
Last week the SFPI went 6-6 (50%) to bring season total up to 133-176 (43.04%). Here is hoping for a solid final week. A perfect 11-0 would put the season total at 45% while 0-11 would be 41.56%
Toronto at Atlanta: TORONTO
New York RB at DC: NEW YORK
New England at Montreal: DRAW
Columbus at New York City: NEW YORK
Orlando at Philadelphia: PHILADELPHIA
Los Angeles at Dallas: DALLAS
Kansas City at Salt Lake: DRAW
Vancouver at Portland: PORTLAND
Minnesota at San Jose: SAN JOSE
Colorado at Seattle: SEATTLE
Chicago at Houston: DRAW
If predictions are 100% correct how will the final tables look?
1 x-TORONTO 71
2 NEW YORK CITY 59
3 CHICAGO 56
4 ATLANTA 54
5 COLUMBUS 53
6 NEW YORK RB 50
7 NEW ENGLAND 43
8 PHILADELPHIA 42
9 MONTREAL 40
10 ORLANDO 39
11 DC 32
Chicago would host New York RB while Atlanta would host Columbus (Austin? REALLY?!?) and Toronto and New York City will await the winners in the Conference Semis
1 PORTLAND 53 (Total Wins Tiebreaker)
2 SEATTLE 53
3 VANCOUVER 52
4 KANSAS CITY 50
5 HOUSTON 48
6 SAN JOSE 46 (Total Wins Tiebreaker)
7 DALLAS 46
8 SALT LAKE 43
9 MINNESOTA 36
10 COLORADO 33
11 LOS ANGELES 32
Vancouver would host San Jose and Kansas City would host Houston in Knockout while Seattle and Portland wait to face the winners in Conference Semis.
The only way Portland would host MLS Cup is if sixth seeded Red Bulls win the East.
TIMBERS ROOTING INTEREST.
Normally we look at what we want to happen around the league based on a Timbers win, however with only one game left Portland controls its destiny, win and they take first in the West regardless of other results. So what we are going to do is look at what we need to happen based on if the Timbers (gasp) don't win on Sunday.
Should the Timbers Draw:
Will need Seattle to Draw or Lose to Colorado
Kansas City to Draw or Lose to Salt Lake
If that happens they will still finish 2nd in West
If only one happens they will finish 3rd and face the 6th seed in the knockout.
We will want either San Jose or Dallas to win to keep RSL out of the 6th spot as RSL holds the Tiebreakers over both should they end up even (Total wins 12-10 over Dallas and Goal Differential -7 to -22 over San Jose)
Should neither happen they will finish 4th and host Houston
Should the Timbers Lose:
Need Seattle to Lose to Colorado
Kansas City to Draw or Lose to Salt Lake
That will allow Portland to still remain in 2nd
If only one happens then Timbers will be in 3rd and face the 6th seed in the Knockout stage. (Even if tied on points with SKC Portland has the Total Wins Tiebreaker 14-12)
At which point would want again want either Dallas or San Jose to Win in order to prevent RSL from potentially taking the 6th spot for the reasons listed above.
If neither happens then Portland will fall to 4th and host Houston in the Knockout as even if Houston wins and they end up even on points, Portland would still hold the Total Wins Tiebreaker at 14-13.
So basically the long and the short of it is we want Colorado, RSL, and either Dallas or San Jose to win on Decision Day if we are unable to win against Vancouver.