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Prediction Thread One: Timbers vs. Loons

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MLS: Real Salt Lake at Portland Timbers Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Finally! It's finally here! The first league match of 2017, and with it the first STF Prediction Thread. Here, we take a stab at guessing the outcome of each game, and the more correct you are, the more points you earn. Accurately predict enough goal-scoring downpours and clean-sheet showers to claim the title of Stumptown Weather(wo)man and the accompanying bragging rights.

This first match features expansion side Minnesota United visiting our beloved Timbers. During the preseason, the Timbers have been a dynamic, dangerous team anytime the starting eleven were on the field. Will they be able to build on the momentum and start the season strong? What’s your prediction?

Over/under: 4.5 total cards

Last year’s scoring model seemed to work pretty well, I thought. If you showed up with a prediction ~80% of the time, you were competitive. A couple strong weeks (6+ points) could lift someone above the crowd or allow someone who took a couple weeks off to catch up easily. Nevertheless, I’ve changed things around a bit in an attempt to add a bit more balance. Some of that comes from my own thoughts after reviewing where people earned lots of points and from your suggestions. So with that, the new scoring format!

  • Correct score: 5 points
  • Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points
  • Each clean sheet: 2 points
  • Each goal-scorer: 1 point
  • Each assist/lack of assist: 1 point
  • Goal/assist bonus: 1 point
  • Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point
  • Player with a red card: 1 point
  • Over/under on total cards: 1 point
  • Most recommended/most outrageously accurate prediction: 2 points

Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications:

You may amend your prediction at any point up to kick off to account for game day 18 announcements. Though I recommend at least getting an initial prediction sooner, just in case you forget to come back in that hour or two before the game.

Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. Basically, if you’re predicting lots of goals all the time to just earn points on goals and assists and ignoring the score, I feel that goes against the spirit of this thread. This hasn’t been at all a problem in the last two years, so let’s keep it that way!

The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you correctly get the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal. (e.g., if Nagbe scores, assisted by Valeri, and you predicted that exact combination you get a total of three points - 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 bonus. However, if you predicted Nagbe scores assisted by Adi and Adi scores assisted by Valeri, you would get two points from the Nagbe/Valeri prediction - 1 goal, 1 assist)

Even though a player can be awarded a secondary assist, I will award a maximum of one assist point per goal. But that point can come from either the primary or secondary assist.

For the over/under on cards, a second yellow leading to a red counts as two cards, not three.

Most weeks, I will reward the most recommended prediction with the 2 points. However, if someone predicts that Caleb will bring a towel to dry off Seattle’s field, and he does, they’ll probably get those two points, regardless of whether they got the recs. We’ll also be testing this out, because I want to be careful that this doesn’t end up favoring the first few people to post their prediction. As I see it, the goal here is to add even more fun without going too over-the-top ridiculous.

If you’re looking for where I set the over/under on total cards, check the end of the preview paragraph.

After all that, is there anything I missed? Any questions about anything?