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Rose City Forecast 18: Rivalry

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MLS: Portland Timbers at Seattle Sounders FC Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Another game, another forecast. Last game was... well, it was a soccer game. PTFC lost 3-2, deservedly, in a match that was something of a wacky game, with two own goals, a PK, comical defending, and a double red card.

The first goal came on an Okugo own goal only seven minutes in to give Minnesota the lead. Portland got the equalizer about 40 minutes in when Minnesota’s keeper absolutely clattered into the back of Diego Valeri, got nowhere near the ball, and then tried to argue with ref Ted Unkel when he called a PK. Valeri made no mistake, and scored the spot kick. The third goal came just two minutes after half time when Ramirez got behind the defense and flicked the ball over Attinella. PTFC responded just minutes later through Vytas, who subbed on at the half, when he put a cross in for Adi and Valeri, but a Minnesota defender got his foot in the way and knocked it into net for the second own goal of the match. The final goal came when Attinella came out to punch away a ball across the six yard box, but just got his finger tips to it, and tackled two of his own defenders in the process. The ball fell to Abu Danladi, who was all alone and now with a completely open net, to calmly finish. Seventy minutes in, Blanco and Danladi saw deserved double red for kicking out at each other while on the ground. From there, the Timbers couldn’t find the equalizer, but did take one more hit. In the 85th minute, Miller saw yellow, which was his fifth, and so he’ll now be out on accumulation for Seattle.

For this midweek game, there were no particularly outstanding predictions, so STYLES34 gets the best prediction for correctly calling a Ramirez goal assisted by Molino and a Valeri PK. straight red was the only one pessimistic to predict a Timbers loss. The most recommended prediction was that Ben Zemanski would spend the whole game working on a Minnesota accent, and then give a post-game interview in which he says ‘you betcha’ a full six times in just a couple minutes. Congrats to richard.hamje on the bonus two points.

I messed up someone’s points last week, so let that be your reminder that it pays to check the standings! Let me know if I did it again.

Standings Game 17

Participant Total Points Weekly Points
Participant Total Points Weekly Points
Bosoxtjh18 83 3
STYLES34 81 6
Crafty_PDX 79 2
Schmadam08 75 4
Z_thrilla 73 0
hoser!hoser! 71 3
TNOTTS 71 3
MacVanek 70 1
Rhyanoceras 70 2
richard.hamje 70 6
Qoolio 67 1
GeorgeCorps17 66 2
shrekpdx 65 5
Independent_Cascadia 64 0
Weresquatch 64 1
UNOprivateer 60 3
RCTID26 59 0
deadjeff 57 0
Timber DT 57 0
MofoOG 56 4
Deschutes 55 5
JonMc 52 0
landoid 51 1
Withdrawn Striker 49 1
MindfulCyclist 48 2
Hendrik Johannes 45 0
MrMoody 45 0
my favorite axe 45 0
PGHTimber 45 0
TheChooChooChin 45 0
PenguinChe 44 0
afreborg 43 0
Z-Whiz 43 0
dhenrichs 41 0
BarmyTarmy 39 0
Timber Dave 38 0
Webfooter17 38 0
lefhanded49 37 3
4-5-2 36 0
product_placement 36 0
Put-Me-In-Coach 36 0
straight red 35 3
James Bondo 31 0
YoBergo 30 0
jackwiddy 28 2
picknroll222 26 0
TigardTimber 25 0
shenanigans 23 0
irisblue32 20 0
Tfetters 16 0
Walrus_Kasra 16 0
RCTIDnomatterwhat 15 0
mschofer 12 0
Hailfire97 10 0
Ibowyer 10 0
pdxsoccerdad 9 0
Andrew Collins 8 0
biggieswc 8 0
CubanDaywalker 8 0
Foggy4 8 0
hobbesoftheeast 8 0
lcpdx 8 0
LU_PDX 8 0
Hand Ride 7 0
Kaatmandu 7 0
KarlRadekBonk 7 0
living 7 0
YoYoBananas 7 0
Timbersox 6 0
Timber TKO 6 0
ScottyRiley 5 0
Jjwalker16 4 0
Ballast 3 0
BlazerTucker 3 0
JoeyinTimberland 3 0
KzooTimbers 0 0
0

On Sunday, the Timbers return home to take on Cascadia rivals Seattle. Portland is expected to be without starting centerbacks Ridgwell (injury) and Miller (yellow accumulation), as well as missing Sebastian Blanco for that deserved red card from the Minnesota game. If that’s not enough, there will be tired legs. Nagbe, Adi, and Chara have all played the full 90 in the last two matches. On the plus side, Darren Mattocks made his return to a thin bench on Wednesday, so we can expect him to get some time on Sunday. On the other hand, the Sounders will be starting with something close to a first choice lineup. Regardless of recent games, Providence Park has been friendly to the Timbers this season, as they’ve managed five wins, two draws, and just the one loss to SKC. Can they overcome the lineup issues and hold serve in their form?

Over/under: 5.5 total cards

The Scoring Format:

  • Correct score: 5 points
  • Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points
  • Each clean sheet: 2 points
  • Each goal-scorer: 1 point
  • Each FK/PK/assist/lack of assist: 1 point
  • Goal/assist bonus: 1 point
  • Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point
  • Each player with a red card: 1 point (Cannot earn points for predicting 0 red cards)
  • Over/under on total cards: 1 point
  • Most recommended/most outrageously accurate prediction: 2 points

Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications (the fine print):

You may amend your prediction at any point up to kick off to account for game day 18 announcements. Though I recommend at least getting an initial prediction sooner, just in case you forget to come back in that hour or two before the game.

Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. Basically, if you’re predicting lots of goals all the time to just earn points on goals and assists and ignoring the score, I feel that goes against the spirit of this thread. This hasn’t been at all a problem in the last two years, so let’s keep it that way!

The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you correctly get the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal. (e.g., if Nagbe scores, assisted by Valeri, and you predicted that exact combination you get a total of three points - 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 bonus. However, if you predicted Nagbe scores assisted by Adi and Adi scores assisted by Valeri, you would get two points from the Nagbe/Valeri prediction - 1 goal, 1 assist)

Please be clear whether you think a goal will be unassisted, assisted, or from a PK/FK. Unassisted = no assist, run of play; Assisted = player who got the assist; PK/FK = directly from a free kick. For the purposes of this thread, a PK counts as a FK, and a FK as a PK. If you just leave the assist section blank, I will assume you’re declining to make an assist prediction.

Even though a player can be awarded a secondary assist by OPTA, I will award a maximum of one assist point per goal. But that point can come from either the primary or secondary assist in the box score. However, please keep your predictions to one assist per goal.

For the over/under on cards, a second yellow leading to a red counts as two cards, not three.

You may predict more than one red card if you’re expecting a chippy match, but only up to three total.

Most weeks, I will reward the most recommended prediction with the 2 points. However, if someone predicts that Caleb will bring a towel to dry off Seattle’s field, and he does, they’ll probably get those two points, regardless of whether they got the recs. We’ll also be testing this out, because I want to be careful that this doesn’t end up favoring the first few people to post their prediction. As I see it, the goal here is to add even more fun without going too over-the-top ridiculous.

If you’re looking for where I set the over/under on total cards, check the end of the preview paragraph after the standings.

Format:

In the comment title, post your predicted score with the winners, eg: 4-2 Timbers

In the body of your comment, start with the goals and assists, like so:

Nagbe (Valeri)

Valeri (Free kick)

Adi (PK)

Blanco (Unassisted)

Beckham (Free kick)

Donovan (Beckham)

Next, choose your first yellow card, and that means picking only one person.

First yellow to Nigel De Jong

Then reds, if any. (NOTE: no points awarded for correctly calling a red-card-free match, so take a guess.)

Nigel De Jong gets a red card for stomping Blanco.

Clearly note whether you’re predicting over or under on total cards. Don’t leave me to try and figure it out!

And lastly, make your fun prediction.

Nigel de Jong tries to stomp Nagbe’s ankle again, but this time, Nagbe avoids the tackle. Being angry Nagbe for the first time in three years, he kicks the ball straight into NDJ’s groin. Camera pans to a trademark Chara smile.

As always, any questions about anything?