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Rose City Forecast 22: Vancouver vs PTFC

MLS: Vancouver Whitecaps FC at Portland Timbers Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Here we are back at the Forecast after yet another bad result, and this one was particularly awful. PTFC lost 4-1 on the heels of two red cards and a broken ankle. Victor Arboleda got the first red for a high elbow on Plata. Adi decided to one-up him by charging Beckerman. Beckerman also got a red in the confrontation for what was (probably) a punch to Adi’s kidney. But before he was sent off, Beckerman got the first goal of the match from 25 yards out, where the Timbers gave him acres of space. Plata got the second goal on a PK conceded by Dairon Asprilla. Albert Rusnak got a third goal for RSL, and Plata capped off their scoring with his second. Jack Barmby got the Timbers a consolation goal in the last few minutes of the game.

All you forecasters were entirely too optimistic. No one (save an RSL fan) predicted a Timbers loss, and so MindfulCyclist and Bosoxtjh18 get the picks of the week with four points each. The two points for most recommended prediction go to the soccer gods, as what happened in the match was far wilder than any predictions on the thread.

That leads us to the (finally!) updated standings. Let me know if I made any errors this week or either of the two matches before. Doing three games at once meant a lot of spreadsheets, so it’s not unlikely that I made a mistake somewhere. I have also taken the liberty of removing anyone with fewer than 25 total points from the table, to try and capture only those of you who are still actively participating and condense the thread a bit, and I’ll continue to do that going forward.

After being humiliated by Real Salt Lake, an even more short-handed Timbers side travel north to Canada for a Cascadia Cup match against Vancouver. In a six game winless skid, and below the playoff line on PPG, the cushion the Timbers earned in March is officially gone. They need a win. That said, they will have 13 or 14 first team players and a few T2 players with which to get those 3 points. Adi and Arboleda are out for suspension. Meyers, Ridgy, Farfan, Okugo, and almost certainly Vytas are all out injured. Chara may or may not be making his return from injury. Mattocks, Powell, Guzman, and Nagbe are all with their national teams at the gold cup. That leaves Gleeson, Attinella, Valentin, Olum, Miller, Mabiala, Clarke, Zemanski, Blanco, Barmby, Asprilla, Valeri, and Ebobisse as the currently healthy first team. As if that wasn’t enough, the Timbers have demons to revisit from last season, as they suffered a 4-0 season-ending loss last October. Is there anyway the club can get a result in British Columbia?

Over/under: 3.5 total cards

The Scoring Format:

  • Correct score: 5 points
  • Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points
  • Each clean sheet: 2 points
  • Each goal-scorer: 1 point
  • Each FK/PK/assist/lack of assist: 1 point
  • Goal/assist bonus: 1 point
  • Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point
  • Each player with a red card: 1 point (Cannot earn points for predicting 0 red cards)
  • Over/under on total cards: 1 point
  • Most recommended/most outrageously accurate prediction: 2 points

Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications (the fine print):

You may amend your prediction at any point up to kick off to account for game day 18 announcements. Though I recommend at least getting an initial prediction sooner, just in case you forget to come back in that hour or two before the game.

Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. Basically, if you’re predicting lots of goals all the time to just earn points on goals and assists and ignoring the score, I feel that goes against the spirit of this thread. This hasn’t been at all a problem in the last two years, so let’s keep it that way!

The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you correctly get the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal. (e.g., if Nagbe scores, assisted by Valeri, and you predicted that exact combination you get a total of three points - 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 bonus. However, if you predicted Nagbe scores assisted by Adi and Adi scores assisted by Valeri, you would get two points from the Nagbe/Valeri prediction - 1 goal, 1 assist)

Please be clear whether you think a goal will be unassisted, assisted, or from a PK/FK. Unassisted = no assist, run of play; Assisted = player who got the assist; PK/FK = directly from a free kick. For the purposes of this thread, a PK counts as a FK, and a FK as a PK. If you just leave the assist section blank, I will assume you’re declining to make an assist prediction.

Even though a player can be awarded a secondary assist by OPTA, I will award a maximum of one assist point per goal. But that point can come from either the primary or secondary assist in the box score. However, please keep your predictions to one assist per goal.

For the over/under on cards, a second yellow leading to a red counts as two cards, not three.

You may predict more than one red card if you’re expecting a chippy match, but only up to three total.

Most weeks, I will reward the most recommended prediction with the 2 points. However, if someone predicts that Caleb will bring a towel to dry off Seattle’s field, and he does, they’ll probably get those two points, regardless of whether they got the recs. We’ll also be testing this out, because I want to be careful that this doesn’t end up favoring the first few people to post their prediction. As I see it, the goal here is to add even more fun without going too over-the-top ridiculous.

If you’re looking for where I set the over/under on total cards, check the end of the preview paragraph after the standings.


In the comment title, post your predicted score with the winners, eg: 4-2 Timbers

In the body of your comment, start with the goals and assists, like so:

Nagbe (Valeri)

Valeri (Free kick)

Adi (PK)

Blanco (Unassisted)

Beckham (Free kick)

Donovan (Beckham)

Next, choose your first yellow card, and that means picking only one person.

First yellow to Nigel De Jong

Then reds, if any. (NOTE: no points awarded for correctly calling a red-card-free match, so take a guess.)

Nigel De Jong gets a red card for stomping Blanco.

Clearly note whether you’re predicting over or under on total cards. Don’t leave me to try and figure it out!

And lastly, make your fun prediction.

Nigel de Jong tries to stomp Nagbe’s ankle again, but this time, Nagbe avoids the tackle. Being angry Nagbe for the first time in three years, he kicks the ball straight into NDJ’s groin. Camera pans to a trademark Chara smile.

As always, any questions about anything?