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Rose City Forecast 23: Houston vs PTFC

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MLS: Houston Dynamo at Portland Timbers Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome back to the forecast! For the first time in weeks, it’s fun to write the quick recap, as the Timbers got out of Canada with a very unexpected away win. In his first start, Ebobisse got his first goal in the 14th minute off a nice cross from Dairon Asprilla. Vancouver equalized off a corner where two Timbers lost their mark, and the script started to feel familiar. But five minutes after half time, Blanco got the Timbers’ second goal off a nice Ebobisse back-heel assist, and PTFC held the lead for the rest of the game, halting their winless skid.

Schmadam08, MacVanek, and Timbers Pride all correctly predicted the 2-1 Timbers scoreline, but Schmadam08 and MacVanek each share the pick of the week thanks to getting a couple goals and/or assists correct as well as the over on cards in addition to the scoreline. STYLES34 gets the most recommended pick of the week for hoping that Montero would hate on Seattle and announce his desire to become the player most hated by Timbers fans. In addition, STYLES34 is the first forecaster to cross 100 points this season! Congratulations.

The standings. As always let me know if I messed up. As I started doing last week, players with fewer than 20 points won’t show on the table.

Standings Match 22

Participant Total Points Weekly
Participant Total Points Weekly
STYLES34 103 6
Bosoxtjh18 98 2
Schmadam08 89 11
Crafty_PDX 85 0
MacVanek 84 11
UNOprivateer 80 1
Z_thrilla 78 5
GeorgeCorps17 77 1
TNOTTS 76 0
richard.hamje 72 1
hoser!hoser! 71 0
Qoolio 71 0
shrekpdx 71 0
Rhyanoceras 70 0
RCTID26 68 0
Withdrawn Striker 68 3
Deschutes 67 0
Timber DT 66 0
Independent_Cascadia 64 0
Weresquatch 64 0
my favorite axe 63 0
landoid 61 0
MindfulCyclist 61 2
deadjeff 57 0
MofoOG 56 0
JonMc 53 0
lefhanded49 49 0
TheChooChooChin 47 2
BarmyTarmy 46 2
afreborg 45 0
Hendrik Johannes 45 0
MrMoody 45 0
PGHTimber 45 0
PenguinChe 44 0
jackwiddy 43 5
Z-Whiz 43 0
dhenrichs 41 0
straight red 41 0
4-5-2 39 0
Timber Dave 38 0
Webfooter17 38 0
product_placement 36 0
Put-Me-In-Coach 36 0
James Bondo 31 0
YoBergo 30 0
picknroll222 26 0
TigardTimber 25 0
shenanigans 23 0
irisblue32 20 0

On Saturday, the Timbers head to Texas to face the Houston Dynamo in a world of heat and humidity. The Timbers have never been particularly good in Texas in league games, and the Dynamo are nearly unbeatable at home this season, so it’s not a match-up to encourage much optimism. However, the Timbers will finally be back at something very close to full strength as David Guzman, Alvas Powell, Darren Mattocks, and Darlington Nagbe all return from international duty, and Fanendo Adi returns from suspension. The defense is still dealing with injuries, but with Powell back, we might get something close to a first choice backline with Powell on the right, Valentin on the left, and Miller and Mabiala center. Or, perhaps, it will look similar to last week, which held up relatively well, outside some scary set pieces. Can the Timbers gut out a result?

Over/under: 3.5 total cards

The Scoring Format:

  • Correct score: 5 points
  • Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points
  • Each clean sheet: 2 points
  • Each goal-scorer: 1 point
  • Each FK/PK/assist/lack of assist: 1 point
  • Goal/assist bonus: 1 point
  • Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point
  • Each player with a red card: 1 point (Cannot earn points for predicting 0 red cards)
  • Over/under on total cards: 1 point
  • Most recommended/most outrageously accurate prediction: 2 points

Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications (the fine print):

You may amend your prediction at any point up to kick off to account for game day 18 announcements. Though I recommend at least getting an initial prediction sooner, just in case you forget to come back in that hour or two before the game.

Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. Basically, if you’re predicting lots of goals all the time to just earn points on goals and assists and ignoring the score, I feel that goes against the spirit of this thread. This hasn’t been at all a problem in the last two years, so let’s keep it that way!

The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you correctly get the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal. (e.g., if Nagbe scores, assisted by Valeri, and you predicted that exact combination you get a total of three points - 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 bonus. However, if you predicted Nagbe scores assisted by Adi and Adi scores assisted by Valeri, you would get two points from the Nagbe/Valeri prediction - 1 goal, 1 assist)

Please be clear whether you think a goal will be unassisted, assisted, or from a PK/FK. Unassisted = no assist, run of play; Assisted = player who got the assist; PK/FK = directly from a free kick. For the purposes of this thread, a PK counts as a FK, and a FK as a PK. If you just leave the assist section blank, I will assume you’re declining to make an assist prediction.

Even though a player can be awarded a secondary assist by OPTA, I will award a maximum of one assist point per goal. But that point can come from either the primary or secondary assist in the box score. However, please keep your predictions to one assist per goal.

For the over/under on cards, a second yellow leading to a red counts as two cards, not three.

You may predict more than one red card if you’re expecting a chippy match, but only up to three total.

Most weeks, I will reward the most recommended prediction with the 2 points. However, if someone predicts that Caleb will bring a towel to dry off Seattle’s field, and he does, they’ll probably get those two points, regardless of whether they got the recs. We’ll also be testing this out, because I want to be careful that this doesn’t end up favoring the first few people to post their prediction. As I see it, the goal here is to add even more fun without going too over-the-top ridiculous.

If you’re looking for where I set the over/under on total cards, check the end of the preview paragraph after the standings.

Format:

In the comment title, post your predicted score with the winners, eg: 4-2 Timbers

In the body of your comment, start with the goals and assists, like so:

Nagbe (Valeri)

Valeri (Free kick)

Adi (PK)

Blanco (Unassisted)

Beckham (Free kick)

Donovan (Beckham)

Next, choose your first yellow card, and that means picking only one person.

First yellow to Nigel De Jong

Then reds, if any. (NOTE: no points awarded for correctly calling a red-card-free match, so take a guess.)

Nigel De Jong gets a red card for stomping Blanco.

Clearly note whether you’re predicting over or under on total cards. Don’t leave me to try and figure it out!

And lastly, make your fun prediction.

Nigel de Jong tries to stomp Nagbe’s ankle again, but this time, Nagbe avoids the tackle. Being angry Nagbe for the first time in three years, he kicks the ball straight into NDJ’s groin. Camera pans to a trademark Chara smile.

As always, any questions about anything?