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SFPI MLS Week 20 Power Rankings

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“Well, that didn’t work, and it’s already Friday?!” edition

MLS: Atlanta United FC at Portland Timbers Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports

Apologies for the delay in getting this out, I was trying to make some changes to how the strength of schedule was calculated to account for road games, I tried a couple different methods and neither really left me satisfied. My first (and the one that seemed the most straightforward) was to simply multiply the performance scores of road opponents by 1.2 to create a 20% increase in difficulty of the match, but the problem I ran into is that there are a four teams that currently have a performance score of 0 or less meaning that playing that team on the road (which is still harder to do than playing them at home) would count AGAINST your SoS more than playing them at home would. My second thought was to simply add a set value to each road match thus negating the previous issue, however what that did was that it assigned the same extra difficulty to playing a team that is really good at home, like Houston (who is unbeaten at home) and one that is very bad, like LA (who is 1W-6L-3D at home) when it is obvious that it is harder to play at BBVA Compass Stadium than it is to play at StubHub this year.

The reason that I wanted to make this change was because I am wanting to add a new feature now that we are getting towards the end of the season, "Remaining Schedule Strength" which would incorporate games on the road, and if I am doing that for upcoming games, it would only be right to include that in the previously played games.

And after thinking about it for a while, I realized that it was already Friday, and I had missed a midweek game, so I took off the changes I had made and here are the Power Rankings for last week (Note: does not include Wednesdays match between Columbus and Philadelphia).

Do any of you have an idea of how to proceed?

Anyway without further ado here is the SFPI Week 20 MLS Power Rankings.

Biggest Winner of the week: Portland Climbing 5 spots. Biggest Loser is a tie between Vancouver, LA, and San Jose all falling 3 spots.

Biggest point gain: New York Red Bulls (+1.5758) Biggest Point Loss: LA Galaxy (-1.9497)

NEW FEATURES: Change in Schedule Strength Rank, Games Remaining, and Consecutive weeks at #1 for top team.

COMPONENTS

PERFORMANCE SCORE:

PPG Score: Overall points per game added to points per game over last five, with last five being given more weight. Single largest component of SFPI.

Goal Difference Per Game: Overall Goal Difference divided by games played.

Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road. Points taken away for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over entire season, so dropping that home game in March will still hurt you in September.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE:

Average Performance Score of all of a teams opponents to date, weighted at less than 100% teams that have been faced multiple times are counted that many times (ex Portland has played Seattle twice, so Seattles Performance Score is counted twice). Will soon have adjustments for road games (hopefully)

TOTAL SCORE

Performance Score and Strength of Schedule are added together to make a teams Total Score. Teams are then ranked in order from highest to lowest. Negative scores, while rare, are possible.

(all times Pacific, *Denotes Team is currently Above the Red Line)

1: *TORONTO FC (40pts 11W-3L-7D) SCORE: 9.8959 (-0.4056) PREV: 2 (+1) H1/L10

SCHEDULE: 6 (+4) GAMES REMAINING: 13 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS AT #1: 1

LAST WEEK: D 2-2 at NYCFC, D 1-1 vs Colorado NEXT WEEK: vs (5) NYCFC Sun 7/30 11am (ESPN)

2: *ATLANTA UNITED FC (33pts 10W-7L-3D) SCORE: 9.8698 (+0.3983) PREV: 3 (+1) H2/L12

SCHEDULE: 12 (-4) GAMES REMAINING: 14

LAST WEEK: W 1-0 at Orlando NEXT WEEK: vs (15) Orlando Sat 7/29 130pm (FOX)

3: *CHICAGO FIRE (38pts 11W-4L-5D) SCORE: 9.8073 (-0.8367) PREV: 1 (-2) H1/L14

SCHEDULE: 10 (+8) GAMES REMAINING: 14

LAST WEEK: L 2-1 at NYCFC. NEXT WEEK: at (8) Kansas City Sat 7/29 5pm

4: *FC DALLAS (34pts 9W-3L-7D) SCORE: 9.1937 (+1.2659) PREV: 5 (+1) H1/L12

SCHEDULE: 18 (-4) GAMES REMAINING: 15

LAST WEEK: W 2-1 at Montreal. NEXT WEEK: vs (12) Vancouver Sat 7/29 5pm

5: *NEW YORK CITY FC (37pts 11W-6L-4D) SCORE: 8.9807 (-0.4462) PREV: 4 (-1) H2/L12

SCHEDULE: 17 (+4) GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: D 2-2 vs Toronto, W 2-1 vs Chicago. NEXT WEEK: at (1) Toronto Sun 7/30 11am (ESPN)

6: *NEW YORK RED BULLS (32pts 10W-8L-2D) SCORE: 8.1883 (+1.5758) PREV: 8 (+2) H6/L19

SCHEDULE: 19 (-7) GAMES REMAINING: 14

LAST WEEK: W 5-1 vs San Jose, W 3-0 at Minnesota. NEXT WEEK: vs (13) Montreal Sat 7/29 430pm

7: *SEATTLE SOUNDERS (30pts 8W-7L-6D) SCORE: 7.8088 (+1.0248) PREV: 7 (NC) H7/L17

SCHEDULE: 11 (-6) GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: W 4-3 vs DC United, W 3-0 vs San Jose. NEXT WEEK: at (20) LA Sat 7/29 7pm (ESPN)

8: *SPORTING KANSAS CITY (33pts 8W-4L-9D) SCORE: 7.174 (+0.0163) PREV: 6 (-2) H2/L11

SCHEDULE: 22 (NC) GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: D 1-1 at Salt Lake. NEXT WEEK: vs (3) Chicago Sat 7/29 5pm

9: *COLUMBUS CREW (31pts 10W-10L-1D) SCORE: 6.9508 (+0.8511) PREV: 10 (+1) H1/L16

SCHEDULE: 3 (NC) GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: W 1-0 vs Philadelphia. NEXT WEEK: at (16) Philadelphia Wed 7/26 430pm, at (17) Salt Lake Sat 7/29 5pm

10: *PORTLAND TIMBERS (30 pts 8W-8L-6D) SCORE: 6.0704 (+0.7635) PREV: 15 (+5) H1/L17

SCHEDULE: 14 (-3) GAMES REMAINING: 12

LAST WEEK: L 4-1 vs Salt Lake, W 2-1 at Vancouver. NEXT WEEK: at (11) Houston Sat 7/29 5pm)

11: *HOUSTON DYNAMO (32pts 9W-7L-5D) SCORE: 5.7015 (+0.0411) PREV: 12 (+1) H4/L17

SCHEDULE: 15 (+1) GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: D 0-0 at Minnesota, W 3-1 at DC United. NEXT WEEK: vs (10) Portland Sat 7/29 5pm

12: *VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (27pts 8W-8L-3D) SCORE: 5.6614 (-0.5529) PREV: 9 (-3) H8/L22

SCHEDULE: 16 (-9) GAMES REMAINING: 15

LAST WEEK: W 1-0 at LA Galaxy, L 2-1 vs Portland. NEXT WEEK: at (4) Dallas Sat 7/29 5pm

13: MONTREAL IMPACT (24pts 6W-7L-6D) SCORE: 5.3579 (-0.1701) PREV: 14 (+1) H6/L17

SCHEDULE: 7 (+2) GAMES REMAINING: 15

LAST WEEK: W 2-1 vs Philadelphia, L 2-1 vs Dallas. NEXT WEEK: at (6) NYRB Sat 7/29 430pm

14: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (26pts 7W-9L-5D) SCORE: 5.1997 (-0.5666) PREV: 11 (-3) H5/L17

SCHEDULE: 9 (+6) GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: L 5-1 at NYRB, L 3-0 at Seattle. NEXT WEEK: vs (19) Colorado Sat 7/29 5pm

15: ORLANDO CITY SC (29pts 8W-8L-5D) SCORE: 4.6509 (-0.9678) PREV: 13 (-2) H2/L19

SCHEDULE: 2 (NC) GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: L 1-0 vs Atlanta. NEXT WEEK: at (2) Atlanta Sat 7/29 130pm (FOX)

16: PHILADELPHIA UNION (23pts 6W-9L-5D) SCORE: 4.6071 (-0.3881) PREV: 16 (NC) H6/L22

SCHEDULE: 21 (-2) GAMES REMAINING: 14

LAST WEEK: L 2-1 at Montreal, L 2-1 at Columbus. NEXT WEEK: vs (9) Columbus Wed 7/26 5pm, at (18) New England Sat 7/29 430pm

17: REAL SALT LAKE (24pts 7W-12L-3D) SCORE: 4.5626 (+0.8654) PREV: 19 (+2) H17/L22

SCHEDULE: 8 (-2) GAMES REMAINING: 12

LAST WEEK: W 4-1 at Portland, D 1-1 vs Kansas City. NEXT WEEK: vs (9) Columbus Sat 7/29 5pm

18: NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION (23pts 6W-9L-5D) SCORE: 4.0554 (+0.0924) PREV: 18 (NC) H5/L18

SCHEDULE: 4 (NC) GAMES REMAINING: 14

LAST WEEK: W 4-3 vs LA Galaxy. NEXT WEEK: vs (16) Philadelphia Sat 7/29 430pm

19: COLORADO RAPIDS (20pts 6W-11L-2D) SCORE: 2.3418 (-0.2991) PREV: 21 (+2) H17/L22

SCHEDULE: 13 (+4) GAMES REMAINING: 15

LAST WEEK: D 1-1 at Toronto. NEXT WEEK: at (14) San Jose Sat 7/29 5pm

20: LOS ANGELES GALAXY (22pts 6W-10L-4D) SCORE: 2.1377 (-1.9497) PREV: 17 (-3) H3/L21

SCHEDULE: 20 (NC) GAMES REMAINING: 14

LAST WEEK: L 1-0 vs Vancouver, L 4-3 at New England. NEXT WEEK: vs (7) Seattle Sat 7/29 7pm (ESPN)

21: DC UNITED (18pts 5W-13L-3D) SCORE: 1.5308 (-1.6076) PREV: 20 (-1) H8/L22

SCHEDULE: 1 (NC) GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: L 4-3 at Seattle, L 3-0 vs Houston. NEXT WEEK: at (22) Minnesota Sat 7/29 5pm

22: MINNESOTA UNITED (19pts 5W-12L-4D): SCORE: 0.932 (-0.9894) PREV: 22 (NC) H19/L22

SCHEDULE: 5 (+8) GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: D 0-0 vs Houston, L 3-0 vs NYRB. NEXT WEEK: vs (21) DC United Sat 7/29 5pm

PREDICTIONS

Last week I went 9-9 (50%) bringing the season total to 68-103 (39.8%) I will keep the same formula as last time (1.75 pt bonus for home team, if within 1pt Draw) and even though Columbus and Philly have already played, in the interest of fairness I will include what the prediction WOULD have been, even though it was wrong.

Columbus at Philadelphia: DRAW

Orlando at Atlanta: ATLANTA

Philadelphia at New England: NEW ENGLAND

Montreal at NYRB: NYRB

Vancouver at Dallas: DALLAS

Portland at Houston: HOUSTON

Chicago at Kansas City: DRAW

DC at Minnesota: MINNESOTA

Columbus at Salt Lake: DRAW

Colorado at San Jose: SAN JOSE

Seattle at LA: SEATTLE

NYC at Toronto: TORONTO