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SFPI MLS Power Rankings Week 21

Slimmed down All Star “Break” edition

MLS: Montreal Impact at New York Red Bulls Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Let the All Star "Break" begin! Now that the MLS all stars have fallen on PKs to the best team in the world (even without CR7) let us look at the power rankings heading into week 21 of MLS season. We are starting to get to the home stretch, and teams are starting to jockey for playoff positioning, each game is bigger than the one before it. The Biggest Winner this week is Vancouver climbing 4 spots, Columbus and NYC are the biggest losers both falling 3 spots. Biggest point gain was Vancouver (+1.5787) biggest point loss was NYC (-0.9319)

COMPONENTS OF SFPI

PERFORMANCE SCORE:

PPG Score: A teams overall points per game added to their points per game over their last five matches, with last five given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.

Goal Difference Per Game: Total Goal Difference divided by games played.

Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points added for earning results (W/D) on the road. Points subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over entire season, so a home loss in March, still hurts you in September.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE: Average Performance Score of all of a teams opponents thus far, weighted at less than 100%. Now includes increase in difficulty for road matches by adding 20% of that opponents total points per game at home to their performance score for that match. (For example this week, LA's performance score is 0.1595 and they are averaging 0.64 ppg at home this season, any road matches against LA would count as 0.2875 when calculating the average score. Houston, by contrast, has a performance score this week of 4.7182 and are averaging 2.45 ppg at home this year. Any road matches against Houston would count as 5.2082 when calculating the average score. Winning at LA is much easier than winning at Houston this season). Opponents that are played multiple times are counted multiple times. (ex Portland has played Seattle twice this season, so Seattles Performance Score is counted twice)

TOTAL SCORE:

Performance Score and Strength of Schedule are added together to make a teams Total Score. Teams are then ranked in order from highest to lowest. Negative scores, while rare, ARE possible, but require extended periods of extremely poor form.

NEW FEATURES:

Remaining Strength of Schedule: how hard of a road does a team have in front of them? Uses the same formula to determine strength of schedule and then I rank the teams in order of toughest to easiest.

Overall Pace: At a teams current PPG how many points will they have at the end of the season?

DISCONTINUED FEATURE:

Observations about each teams performance that week: I have been finding it harder and harder to come up with something to say about each team every week, and that takes up the most time in writing this. In order to be able to get the rankings published in a reasonable amount of time, this feature will unfortunately have to be discontinued.

(all times pacific *Denotes currently Above Red Line)

1: *TORONTO FC (43pts 12W-3L-7D) SCORE: 10.0859 (+0.19) PREV: 1 (NC) H1/L10

SCHEDULE: 12 (-6). REMAINING SCHEDULE: 17 OVERALL PACE: 66pts. GAMES REMAINING: 12

CONSECUTIVE WEEKS AT #1: 2

LAST WEEK: W 4-0 vs NYCFC. NEXT WEEK: at (22) DC United Saturday 8/5 4pm

2: *ATLANTA UNITED (34pts 10W-7L-4D) SCORE: 9.9884 (+0.1186) PREV: 2 (NC) H2/L12

SCHEDULE: 17 (-5) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 20 OVERALL PACE: 55pts GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: D 1-1 vs Orlando. NEXT WEEK: at (6) Kansas City Sun 8/6 5pm (FS1)

3: *CHICAGO FIRE (38pts 11W-5L-5D) SCORE: 8.9881 (-0.8192) PREV: 3 (NC) H1/L14

SCHEDULE: 5 (+5) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 19 OVERALL PACE: 61pts GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: L 3-2 at Kansas City. NEXT WEEK: vs (15) New England Sat 8/5 530pm

4: *NEW YORK RED BULLS (35pts 11W-8L-2D) SCORE: 8.5786 (-0.4021) PREV: 5 (+1) H2/L12

SCHEDULE: 20 (-1) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 6 OVERALL PACE: 56pts GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: W 4-0 vs Montreal. NEXT WEEK: at (8) NYCFC Sun 8/6 3pm (FS1)

5: *FC DALLAS (34pts 9W-4L-7D) SCORE: 8.4863 (-0.7074) PREV: 4 (-1) H1/L12

SCHEDULE: 14 (+4) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 18 OVERALL PACE: 57pts GAMES REMAINING: 14

LAST WEEK: L 4-0 vs Vancouver. NEXT WEEK: at (18) Philadelphia Sat 8/5 4pm

6: *SPORTING KANSAS CITY (36pts 9W-4L-9D) SCORE: 8.14 (+0.966) PREV: 8 (+2) H2/L11

SCHEDULE: 22 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 7 OVERALL PACE: 55pts GAMES REMAINING: 12

LAST WEEK: W 3-2 vs Chicago NEXT WEEK: vs (2) Atlanta Sun 8/6 5pm (FS1)

7: *SEATTLE SOUNDERS (31pts 8W-7L-7D) SCORE: 8.1084 (+0.2276) PREV: 7 (NC) H7/L17

SCHEDULE: 13 (-2) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 21 OVERALL PACE: 47 GAMES REMAINING: 12

LAST WEEK: D 0-0 at LA. NEXT WEEK: at (21) Minnesota Sat 8/5 430pm

8: *NEW YORK CITY FC (37pts 11W-7L-4D) SCORE: 8.0488 (-0.9319) PREV: 5 (-3) H2/L12

SCHEDULE: 15 (+2) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 9 OVERALL PACE: 57tps GAMES REMAINING: 12

LAST WEEK: L 4-0 at Toronto. NEXT WEEK: vs (4) NYRB SUN 8/6 3PM (FS1)

9: *VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (30pts 9W-8L-3D) SCORE: 7.2401 (+1.5787) PREV: 12 (+3) H8/L22

SCHEDULE: 16 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 15 OVERALL PACE: 51pts GAMES REMAINING: 14

LAST WEEK: W 4-0 at Dallas NEXT WEEK: at (20) Colorado Sat 8/5 7pm

10: *HOUSTON DYNAMO (33pts 9W-7L-6D) SCORE: 7.137 (+1.4352) PREV: 11 (+1) H4/L17

SCHEDULE: 19 (-4) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 12 OVERALL PACE: 51pts GAMES REMAINING: 12

LAST WEEK: D 2-2 vs Portland NEXT WEEK: at (16) Salt Lake Sat 8/5 7pm

11: *PORTLAND TIMBERS (31pts 8W-8L-7D) SCORE: 6.3408 (+0.2704) PREV: 10 (-1) H1/L17

SCHEDULE: 9 (+5) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 14 OVERALL PACE: 45pts GAMES REMAINING: 11

LAST WEEK: D 2-2 at Houston NEXT WEEK: vs (19) Los Angeles Sat 8/5 11am

12: *COLUMBUS CREW (32pts 10W-11D-2L) SCORE: 6.3234 (-0.6274) PREV: 9 (-3) H1/L16

SCHEDULE: 3 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 10 OVERALL PACE: 47pts GAMES REMAINING: 11

LAST WEEK: D 2-2 at Salt Lake. NEXT WEEK: at (13) San Jose Sat 8/5 730pm

13: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (29pts 8W-9L-5D) SCORE: 5.4907 (+0.291) PREV: 14 (+1) H5/L17

SCHEDULE: 10 (-1) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 16 OVERALL PACE: 44pts GAMES REMAINING: 12

LAST WEEK: W 1-0 vs Colorado NEXT WEEK: vs (12) Columbus Sat 8/5 730pm

14: MONTREAL IMPACT (24pts 6W-8L-6D) SCORE: 5.1625 (-0.1954) PREV: 13 (-1) H6/L17

SCHEDULE: 6 (+1) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 5 OVERALL PACE: 40pts GAMES REMAINING: 14

LAST WEEK: L 4-0 at NYRB NEXT WEEK: vs (17) Orlando Sat 8/5 430

15: NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION (26pts 7W-9L-5D) SCORE: 5.1452 (+1.0898) PREV: 18 (+3) H5/L18

SCHEDULE: 7 (-3) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 4 OVERALL PACE: 42pts GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: W 3-0 vs Philadelphia NEXT WEEK: at (3) Chicago Sat 8/5 530pm

16: REAL SALT LAKE (25pts 7W-12L-4D) SCORE: 4.9716 (+0.409) PREV: 17 (+1) H16/L22

SCHEDULE: 4 (+4) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 22 OVERALL PACE: 37pts GAMES REMAINING: 11

LAST WEEK: D 2-2 vs Columbus NEXT WEEK: vs (10) Houston Sat 8/5 7pm

17: ORLANDO CITY SC (30pts 8W-8L-6D) SCORE: 4.8902 (+0.2393) PREV: 15 (-2) H2/L19

SCHEDULE: 1 (+1) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 11 OVERALL PACE: 46 pts GAMES REMAINING: 12

LAST WEEK: D 1-1 at Atlanta NEXT WEEK: at (14) Montreal Sat 8/5 430pm

18: PHILADELPHIA UNION (26pts 7W-10L-5D) SCORE: 3.9005 (-0.7066) PREV: 16 (-2) H6/L22

SCHEDULE: 21 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 1 OVERALL PACE: 40pts GAMES REMAINING: 12

LAST WEEK: L 3-0 at New England NEXT WEEK: vs (5) Dallas Sat 8/5 4pm

19: LOS ANGELES GALAXY (23pts 6W-10L-5D) SCORE: 2.6663 (+0.5286) PREV: 20 (+1) H3/L21

SCHEDULE: 18 (+2) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 13 OVERALL PACE: 37pts GAMES REMAINING: 13

LAST WEEK: D 0-0 vs Seattle NEXT WEEK: at (11) Portland Sat 8/5 11am

20: COLORADO RAPIDS (20pts 6W-12L-2D) SCORE: 2.5894 (+0.4517) PREV: 19 (-1) H17/L22

SCHEDULE: 8 (-5) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 8 OVERALL PACE: 34pts GAMES REMAINING: 14

LAST WEEK: L 1-0 at San Jose. NEXT WEEK: vs (9) Vancouver Sat 8/5 7pm

21: MINNESOTA UNITED (22pts 6W-12L-4D) SCORE: 1.7301 (+0.7981) PREV: 22 (+1) H19/L22

SCHEDULE: 11 (-6) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 2 OVERALL PACE: 34pts GAMES REMAINING: 12

LAST WEEK: W 4-0 vs DC. NEXT WEEK: vs (7) Seattle Sat 8/5 5pm

22: DC UNITED (18pts 5W-14L-3D) SCORE: 1.2312 (-0.2996) PREV: 21 (-1) H8/L22

SCHEDULE: 2 (-1) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 3 OVERALL PACE: 27pts GAMES REMAINING: 12

LAST WEEK: L 4-0 at Minnesota. NEXT WEEK: vs (1) Toronto Sat 8/5 4pm

PREDICTIONS:

Last Week went 6-6 (50%) again to bring the season total to 74-109 (40.4%).

Toronto at DC: TORONTO

Dallas at Philadelphia: DALLAS

Orlando at Montreal: MONTREAL

Seattle at Minnesota: SEATTLE

New England at Chicago: CHICAGO

Vancouver at Colorado: VANCOUVER

Houston at Salt Lake: DRAW

Columbus at San Jose: DRAW

La at Portland: PORTLAND

NYRB at NYCFC: NYCFC

Atlanta at Kansas City: DRAW