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SFPI MLS Power Rankings Week 29

Holy Midweek Games Batman! Edition

MLS: Orlando City SC at Portland Timbers Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports

Well, that was surprising. Toronto was THIIIS close to clinching the Shield this week and being able to rest some star players heading into the playoffs, then they got jumped 5-3 at home by Montreal and, minus Giovinco and Altidore, lost at New England 2-1. However, due to how far ahead of the field they were heading into this week, they remain on top of the rankings. Meanwhile, Santo Valeri took the lead in the MLS Golden Boot race with a brace to extend his record-setting scoring streak to 9 games.

Bookkeeping note: Every couple weeks I double check my data against the MLS table, and I discovered a couple minor errors that impacted teams scores, those have now been corrected but have changed a couple rankings, and a couple scores so changes to score may not completely reflect actual difference from last week to this week.

Also, apologies for the late publish but it would figure that my busiest week in a month is the one with a ton of midweek games, so these rankings do not account for Wednesday's action.


COMPONENTS OF SFPI:

PERFORMANCE SCORE

100% determined by on the field results that is made up of the following sub-components

PPG Score: Overall Points Per Game added to PPG over last five, with your last five matches given more weight. It is the single largest component of the SFPI.

Goal Difference Per Game: Overall Goal Difference divided by Games Played.

Home/Away Bonus: Bonus Points awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, points deducted for dropping results (D/L) at home, accrues over the entire season.


STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE:

Average Performance Score of all of a teams opponents to date accounts for road games by adding a percentage of a team’s home points per game to performance score for that match. Weighted at less than 100%


TOTAL SCORE:

Performance Score is added to Strength of Schedule to determine a team's Total Score. Teams are then ranked in order from highest to lowest.


(*Above Red Line **Clinched Playoff Spot)

All times Pacific


1 **TORONTO FC (62pts 18W-5L-8D) SCORE: 11.7295 (-2.3757) PREV: 1 (NC) H1/L10

SCHEDULE: 17 (+4) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 6 (+10) (4 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 68 (-4)

GAMES REMAINING: 3 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS AT #1: 10

LAST WEEK: L 5-3 vs Montreal, L 2-1 at New England

NEXT WEEK: vs (11) NEW YORK RB Sat 9/30 4pm


2 *ATLANTA UNITED (49pts 14W-8L-7D) SCORE: 10.5516 (+1.6944) PREV: 2 (NC) H2/L12

SCHEDULE: 19 (-4) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 11 (+6) (8 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 57 (+2)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: W 4-0 vs Los Angeles, W 2-0 vs Montreal

NEXT WEEK: vs (17) Philadelphia Wed 9/27 4pm, at (12) New England Sat 9/30 430pm


3 *VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (48pts 14W-9L-6D) SCORE: 8.8485 (+0.672) PREV: 4 (+1) H3/L22

SCHEDULE: 22 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 4 (+2) (1 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 56 (+2)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: W 2-1 vs Colorado

NEXT WEEK: at (10) Seattle Wed 9/27 730pm, at (4) Kansas City Sat 9/30 6pm


4 *SPORTING KANSAS CITY (47pts 12W-6L-11D) SCORE: 8.7273 (+0.9473) PREV: 7 (+3) H2/L11

SCHEDULE: 21 (-4) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 12 (+6) (4 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 55 (+2)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: W 2-1 vs Los Angeles NEXT WEEK: vs (3) Vancouver Sat 9/30 6pm


5 *COLUMBUS CREW (47pts 14W-12L-5D) SCORE: 8.7048 (+1.3524) PREV: 9 (+4) H1/L16

SCHEDULE: 7 (-5) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 17 (+3) (11 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 51 (+2)

GAMES REMAINING: 3

LAST WEEK: W 3-2 vs New York RB NEXT WEEK: vs (20) DC SAT 9/30 430pm


6 *PORTLAND TIMBERS (47pts 13W-10L-8D) SCORE: 8.3854 (+0.1917) PREV: 3 (-3) H1/L17

SCHEDULE: 15 (-3) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 14 (NC) (6 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 51 (+2)

GAMES REMAINING: 3

LAST WEEK: W 3-0 vs Orlando NEXT WEEK: at (13) San Jose Sat 9/30 730


7 **NEW YORK CITY FC (52pts 15W-8L-7D) SCORE: 8.1053 (+3221) PREV: 6 (-1) H2/L12

SCHEDULE: 12 (-1) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 10 (+2) (7 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 58 (-1)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: D 1-1 vs Houston

NEXT WEEK: at (18) Montreal Wed 9/27 430pm, at (8) Chicago Sat 9/30 530pm


8 *CHICAGO FIRE (48pts 14W-10L-6D) SCORE: 7.8933 (+0.0409) PREV: 5 (-3) H1/L14

SCHEDULE: 9 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 15 (NC) (10 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 54 (-2)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: L 3-1 at Philadelphia

NEXT WEEK: at (12) San Jose Wed 9/27 730pm, vs (7) New York City Sat 9/30 530pm


9 *REAL SALT LAKE (41pts 12W-14L-5D) SCORE: 6.9329 (+1.147) PREV: 12 (+3) H9/L22

SCHEDULE: 16 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 21 (NC) (10 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 44 (+1)

GAMES REMAINING: 3

LAST WEEK: W 2-0 vs Seattle NEXT WEEK: at (22) Los Angeles Sat 9/30 730pm


10 *SEATTLE SOUNDERS (44pts 11W-8L-11D) SCORE: 6.7774 (-0.856) PREV: 8 (-2) H3/L17

SCHEDULE: 11 (+2) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 20 (-1) (9 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 49 (-1)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: L 2-0 at Salt Lake

NEXT WEEK: vs (3) Vancouver Wed 9/27 730pm at (17) Philadelphia Sun 10/1 10am (ESPN)


11 *NEW YORK RED BULLS (42pts 12W-11L-6D) SCORE: 6.2142 (+0.165) PREV: 10 (-1) H6/L19

SCHEDULE: 13 (+7) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 1 (+2) (1 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 49 (-2)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: L 3-2 at Columbus

NEXT WEEK: vs (20) DC United Wed 9/27 430pm at (1) Toronto Sat 9/30 4pm


12 NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION (38pts 11W-14L-5D) SCORE: 6.1235 (+1.2006) PREV: 15 (+3) H5/L18

SCHEDULE: 2 (+1) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 8 (-6) (5 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 43 (+2)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: W 2-1 vs Toronto

NEXT WEEK: at (15) Orlando Wed 9/27 430pm vs (2) Atlanta Sat 9/30 430pm


13 *SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (39pts 11W-13L-6D) SCORE: 5.3386 (-0.5893) PREV: 11 (-2) H5/L17

SCHEDULE: 20 (-2) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 5 (2 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 44 (-1)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: L 4-0 at DC United

NEXT WEEK: vs (8) Chicago Wed 9/27 730pm, vs (6) Portland Sat 9/30 730pm


14 HOUSTON DYNAMO (39pts 10W-10L-9D) SCORE: 5.2596 (-0.3201) PREV: 13 (-1) H4/L17

SCHEDULE: 18 (+1) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 13 (-3) (4 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 45 (-1)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: D 1-1 at New York City

NEXT WEEK: vs (22) Los Angeles Wed 9/27 530pm, vs (19) Minnesota Sat 9/30 530pm


15 FC DALLAS (38pts 9W-9L-11D) SCORE: 4.9827 (-0.3323) PREV: 14 (-1) H1/L16

SCHEDULE: 4 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 22 (NC) (11 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 44 (-2)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: L 4-1 at Minnesota

NEXT WEEK: vs (21) Colorado Wed 9/27 5pm at (16) Orlando Sat 9/30 1pm


16 ORLANDO CITY SC (35pts 9W-13L-8D) SCORE: 4.9062 (+0.0862) PREV: 16 (NC) H2/L19

SCHEDULE: 1 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 16 (-3) (9 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 41 (NC)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: L 3-0 at Portland

NEXT WEEK: vs (12) New England Wed 9/27 430pm vs (15) Dallas Sat 9/30 1pm


17 PHILADELPHIA UNION (36pts 9W-12L-9D) SCORE: 4.6746 (+0.9529) PREV: 17 (NC)

SCHEDULE: 14 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 3 (+2) (3 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 40 (+2)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: W 3-1 vs Chicago

NEXT WEEK: at (2) Atlanta Wed 9/27 430pm, vs (10) Seattle Sun 10/1 10am (ESPN)


18 MONTREAL IMPACT (39pts 11W-13L-6D) SCORE: 4.3979 (+0.9536) PREV: 18 (NC)

SCHEDULE: 3 (+7) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 7 (-6) (5 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 44 (+1)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: W 5-3 at Toronto, L 2-0 at Atlanta

NEXT WEEK: vs (7) New York City Wed 9/27 430pm at (21) Colorado Sat 9/30 6pm


19 MINNESOTA UNITED (32pts 9W-15L-5D) SCORE: 4.2205 (+1.611) PREV: 20 (+1) H19/L22

SCHEDULE: 10 (-4) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 9 (NC) (3 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 37 (+2)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: W 4-1 vs Dallas NEXT WEEK: at (14) Houston Sat 9/30 530pm


20 DC UNITED (31pts 9W-17L-4D) SCORE: 3.7753 (+0.4197) PREV: 19 (-1) H9/L22

SCHEDULE: 6 (-1) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 2 (+2) (2 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 35 (+3)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: W 4-0 vs San Jose

NEXT WEEK: at (11) New York RB Wed 9/27 430pm, at (5) Columbus Sat 9/30 430pm


21 COLORADO RAPIDS (26pts 7W-17L-5D) SCORE: 2.4406 (+0.1972) PREV: 21 (NC) H17/L22

SCHEDULE: 5 (+2) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 18 (-7) (7 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 30 (-1)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: L 2-1 at Vancouver

NEXT WEEK: at (15) Dallas Wed 9/27 5pm vs (18) Montreal Sat 9/30 6pm


22 LOS ANGELES GALAXY (27pts 7W-17L-6D) SCORE: 2.1327 (+0.0291) PREV: 22 (NC) H3/L22

SCHEDULE: 8 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 19 (-12) (8 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 30 (-2)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: L 4-0 at Atlanta, L 2-1 at Kansas City

NEXT WEEK: at (14) Hosuton Wed 9/27 530pm, vs (9) Salt Lake Sat 9/30 730pm


PREDICTIONS:

Last week the SFPI went 6-7 (46.15%) to bring the season total to 121-153 (44.16%) as home teams went 12-1-1 with Toronto and NYC being the only ones not taking all 3 points.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Despite getting PUBLISHED late, I made these predictions before Wednesdays Games, as I have not yet added them into the spreadsheet, so even though some of these predictions are wrong, I am leaving them as is for the sake of honesty.

Philadelphia at Atlanta: ATLANTA

New York City at Montreal: NEW YORK

DC at New York RB: NEW YORK

New England at Orlando: DRAW

Colorado at Dallas: DALLAS

Los Angeles at Houston: HOUSTON

Chicago at San Jose: DRAW

Vancouver at Seattle: DRAW

Dallas at Orlando: ORLANDO

New York RB at Toronto: TORONTO

DC at Columbus: COLUMBUS

Atlanta at New England: ATLANTA

New York City at Chicago: CHICAGO

Minnesota at Houston: HOUSTON

Montreal at Colorado: DRAW

Vancouver at Kansas City: KANSAS CITY

Salt Lake at Los Angeles: SALT LAKE

Portland at San Jose: PORTLAND

Seattle at Philadelphia: DRAW


PLAYOFF PICTURE:

If the predictions are 100% how will the tables look?


(*clinched playoffs **Clinched bye #Eliminated) (Max points possible)

EAST

1 **Toronto 65 (71)

2 *Atlanta 55 (Total Wins) (64)

3 *New York City 55 (61)

4 *Chicago 52 (58)

5 *Columbus 50 (56)

6 New York RB 45 (54)

-----------------

7 Montreal 40 (46)

8 New England 39 (Total Wins) (45)

9 #Orlando 39 (45) (eliminated as wont be able to catch NYRB on Total Wins TB)

10 #Philadelphia 37 (43)

11 #DC 31 (37)


WEST

1 *Portland 50 (Total Wins) (56)

2 Kansas City 50 (62)

3 Vancouver 49 (58)

4 Seattle 46 (52)

5 Houston 45 (54)

6 Salt Lake 44 (50)

--------------------

7 Dallas 41 (50)

8 San Jose 40 (46)

9 Minnesota 32 (44)

10 #Colorado 27 (Goal Difference) (36)

11 #Los Angeles 27 (33)

Note: Even though there are still 6 teams that could potentially meet or beat Portland’s 50 points should the Timbers not earn any points against DCU or Vancouver (Unlikely as that may be) Portland would still clinch because Dallas would not be able to catch Portland on the Total Wins tiebreaker (which in MLS is first tiebreaker) as Portland would have 14 and the max Dallas could get (assuming they only get 3 points this week, of course) would be 13.

TIMBERS ROOTING INTEREST:

Last week went OK for the Timbers, they got the W they needed against Orlando 3 games went exactly they way they needed and 2 were one result away meaning at least one team they needed to drop points did giving us 4 out of a possible 7 points on the week

Assuming a Timbers win what games should we look at and how should we root?

Colorado at Dallas: COLORADO as the Rapids are eliminated from playoff contention, anything they can do to steal points from other teams that can still mathematically catch Portland will be helpful.


Los Angeles at Houston: LOS ANGELES: See Above


Chicago at San Jose: CHICAGO. A loss to Chicago puts San Jose’s Max Points at 48, then since they will have lost to the Timbers their max points would be 46 meaning they would not be able to catch Portland, leaving only 6 teams with a possible chance of doing so.


Vancouver at Seattle: DRAW. Not only would this result in Portland winning Cascadia Cup for the first time since 2012, it would also allow Portland to gain 2 points on both of them, and ensure that Portland will be above Seattle after this week (even if they win at Philly) with both teams on 32 Games played.


FC Dallas at Orlando: ORLANDO Always want East to beat West and this (coupled with dropped points we hope) could allow Portland to outright clinch a playoff spot, and not have to worry about potential tiebreaker scenarios


Minnesota at Houston: MINNESOTA for the same reason we are rooting for Colorado and LA. eliminated teams stealing points from teams that could still potentially catch Portland is a good thing.


Vancouver at Kansas City: DRAW just like against Seattle, Kansas City is a team that Portland is in the mix with for the Western Conference Lead and a first round Bye. Dropped points by both teams here is ideal.


Salt Lake at Los Angeles: LOS ANGELES See also LA vs Houston, or Minn vs Houston


Seattle at Philadelphia: PHILADELPHIA. Coupled with a Draw against Vancouver this would leave Seattle 5 points behind Portland with only 2 matches to play and unable to catch portland on total wins, so Portland would only need 1 point to clinch finishing ahead of Seattle in the Standings for only the third time in MLS play.


How would the table look?

(*clinched playoff **Clinched bye #eliminated) (Max points possible)

1 *Portland 50 (Either Goal difference or total goals scored TB depending on MoV) (56)

2 *Vancouver 50 (59)

3 Kansas City 47 (59)

4 Seattle 45 (51)

5 Salt Lake 41 (47)

6 San Jose 39 (Total Wins TB) (45)

---------------------

7 Houston 39 (48)

8 Dallas 38 (47)

9 Minnesota 35 (47)

10 Los Angeles 33 (39)

11 #Colorado 29 (38)