Rose City Forecast 1: A New Season and LAG vs PTFC

Welcome to another year of match prediction threads, the place where everyone at Stumptown Footy can come have a guess at how the Timbers will do match by match. I’ve been a bit remiss this offseason, and never ended up posting either a wrap-up 2017 thread or a thread to lay out 2018. So this one’s going to do double-duty. Leave your predictions for LAG vs PTFC here, but also weigh in on what you’re looking for from 2018 as a whole.

First order of business is to congratulate our 2017 Weatherperson, STYLES34, who won with 170 total points. UNOprivateer with 152 and MacVanek with 144 round out the top three. In the interest of saving space, since there’s a lot going on in this thread, the final 2017 standings below will only have those who finished with over 100 points.

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Now, with that out of the way, onto 2018! If you’re new here, welcome! Come here each week to earn points for various actions throughout a match according to the template below. We have a lot of fun each year, and whoever gets the most points throughout the season gets to add the title “Stumptown Weatherperson: Prediction champion [year]” to their signature on the forum.

For those of you returning, I thought last year went pretty well. I’m making one change, which is: instead of the most recommended prediction, I’ll just choose the prediction that tickles my fancy. (I may also enlist the rest of the STF editorial team, depending on how much they want to cooperate. [ed. note: Judging people who comment on the site? That doesn’t sound like something I would do.]) This change is due to the fact that by the time the season was about 60% over, no prediction was getting very many recommendations. At least I will be consistent all-season long!

For this week only, find the preview paragraph and over/under on cards at the very end of the post. It’d be wonderful if you’d refresh yourself on the details of the rules on your way!

The Scoring Format:

• Correct score: 5 points
• Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points
• Each clean sheet: 2 points
• Each goal-scorer: 1 point
• Each FK/PK/assist/lack of assist: 1 point
• Goal/assist bonus: 1 point
• Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point
• Each player with a red card: 1 point (Cannot earn points for predicting 0 red cards)
• Over/under on total cards: 1 point
• Most outrageous(ly accurate) prediction: 2 points

Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications (the fine print):

You may amend your prediction at any point up to kick off to account for game day 18 announcements. I recommend at least getting an initial prediction sooner, just in case you forget to come back in that hour or two before the game.

Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. Basically, if you’re predicting lots of goals all the time to just earn points on goals and assists and ignoring the score, I feel that goes against the spirit of this thread. This hasn’t been at all a problem in the last two years, so let’s keep it that way!

The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you correctly get the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal. (e.g., if Nagbe scores, assisted by Valeri, and you predicted that exact combination you get a total of three points - 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 bonus. However, if you predicted Nagbe scores assisted by Adi and Adi scores assisted by Valeri, you would get two points from the Nagbe/Valeri prediction - 1 goal, 1 assist)

Please be clear whether you think a goal will be unassisted, assisted, or from a PK/FK. Unassisted = no assist, run of play; Assisted = player who got the assist; PK/FK = directly from a free kick. For the purposes of this thread, a PK counts as a FK, and a FK as a PK. If you just leave the assist section blank, I will assume you’re declining to make an assist prediction.

Even though a player can be awarded a secondary assist by OPTA, I will award a maximum of one assist point per goal. But that point can come from either the primary or secondary assist in the box score. However, please keep your predictions to one assist per goal.

For the over/under on cards, a second yellow leading to a red counts as two cards, not three.

You may predict more than one red card if you’re expecting a chippy match, but only up to three total.

For the most outrageous(ly accurate) prediction, I will be trying to toe a line between completely absurd and mundane in my choices. As I see it, the goal here is to add even more fun without going too over-the-top ridiculous. So, in my mind, the best predictions will be something that could conceivably happen, but don’t happen often, like amusing coaching spats or goals that bounce off the crossbar, then off the keeper’s back, and then in. Things like that.

If you’re looking for where I set the over/under on total cards, check the end of the preview paragraph after the standings.

Format:

In the comment title, post your predicted score with the winners, eg: 4-2 Timbers

In the body of your comment, start with the goals and assists, like so:

Nagbe (Valeri)

Valeri (Free kick)

Adi (PK)

Blanco (Unassisted)

Beckham (Free kick)

Donovan (Beckham)

Next, choose your first yellow card, and that means picking only one person.

First yellow to Nigel De Jong

Then reds, if any. (NOTE: no points awarded for correctly calling a red-card-free match, so take a guess.)

Nigel De Jong gets a red card for stomping Blanco.

Clearly note whether you’re predicting over or under on total cards. Don’t leave me to try and figure it out!

And lastly, make your fun prediction.

Nigel de Jong tries to stomp Nagbe’s ankle again, but this time, Nagbe avoids the tackle. Being angry Nagbe for the first time in three years, he kicks the ball straight into NDJ’s groin. Camera pans to a trademark Chara smile.

As always, any questions about anything?

Preview:

For the first time since 2011, the Timbers first match is on the road. On Sunday, they travel to the LA Galaxy for a nationally televised match. LA is coming off their first season without Bruce Arena as a head coach and (perhaps not coincidentally) the first season they have missed the playoffs since the Timbers joined MLS. Longtime MLS coach Sigi Schmid, who was hired mid-season 2017, will be on the sideline. For the Timbers, it will be Giovanni Savarese’s first match in charge and his first match as an MLS coach. Who will get the points, the old-hand or the up-and comer?

For a much more in-depth preview, be sure to check out the Scouting Report.

Over/under: 3.5 total cards.