It took 8 weeks, but finally every team in MLS has played 5 or more matches meaning it is time for the first edition of the 2018 MLS Stumptown Footy Power Index (SFPI)!
As always, a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:
The SFPI has two main components, “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on the field results, and “Strength of Schedule” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.
A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:
Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI
Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over entire season.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponents Points Per Game at Home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that amount of times. Weighted at less than 100%
Those combine to give a team’s Total Score. Teams are then ranked in order of highest to lowest by Total Score.
One note of housekeeping. Due to the fact that LAFC has yet to play any home games there will not be a Remaining Strength of Schedule until next week, because my spreadsheet gets a divide by zero error message for all the teams that will be playing at LAFC this year.
Now that is out of the way, lets get on to the Rankings!
1 Atlanta United (16pts 5W-1L-1D) SCORE: 11.0358 PREV: NA H1/L1 SCHEDULE: 12
LAST WEEK: W 2-0 at LA Galaxy NEXT WEEK: vs (19) Montreal
2 New York City FC (17pts 5W-1L-2D) SCORE: 10.2379 PREV: NA H2/L2 SCHEDULE: 5
LAST WEEK: L 3-0 at Portland NEXT WEEK: vs (5) FC Dallas
3 LAFC (12pts 4W-2L-0D) SCORE: 9.74 PREV: NA H3/L3 SCHEDULE: 15
LAST WEEK: W 5-3 at Montreal NEXT WEEK: vs (18) Seattle
4 Sporting KC (17pts 5W-1L-2D) SCORE: 8.9845 PREV: NA H4/L4 SCHEDULE: 22
LAST WEEK: W 6-0 vs Vancouver NEXT WEEK: at (7) New England
5 FC Dallas (12pts 3W-0L-3D) SCORE: 8.3205 PREV: NA H5/L5 SCHEDULE: 21
LAST WEEK: W 2-0 vs Philadelphia NEXT WEEK: at (2) NYCFC
6 Orlando City SC (13pts 4W-2L-1D) SCORE: 7.5721 PREV: NA H6/L6 SCHEDULE: 20
LAST WEEK: W 3-2 vs San Jose NEXT WEEK: at (10) Colorado
7 New England Revolution (11pts 3W-2L-2D) SCORE: 7.2294 PREV: NA H7/L7 SCHEDULE: 14
LAST WEEK: D 2-2 at Columbus NEXT WEEK: vs (4) Sporting KC
8 Portland Timbers (8pts 2W-3L-2D) SCORE: 7.0781 PREV: NA H8/L8 SCHEDULE: 6
LAST WEEK: W 3-0 vs NYCFC NEXT WEEK: BYE
9 LA Galaxy (10pts 3W-3L-1D) SCORE 6.9664 PREV: NA H9/L9 SCHEDULE: 1
LAST WEEK: L 2-0 vs Atlanta NEXT WEEK: vs (12) New York RB
10 Colorado Rapids (8pts 2W-2L-2D) SCORE: 6.5959 PREV: NA H10/L10 SCHEDULE: 13
LAST WEEK: L 3-0 at RSL NEXT WEEK: vs (6) Orlando
11 Real Salt Lake (10pts 3W-3L-1D) SCORE: 6.3306 PREV: NA H11/L11 SCHEDULE: 7
LAST WEEK: W 3-0 vs Colorado NEXT WEEK: at (15) Vancouver
12 New York Red Bulls (9pts 3W-3L-0D) SCORE: 6.1893 PREV: NA H12/L12 SCHEDULE: 16
LAST WEEK: L 2-1 vs Chicago NEXT WEEK: at (9) LA Galaxy
13 Chicago Fire (7pts 2W-3L-1D) SCORE: 5.2844 PREV: NA H13/L13 SCHEDULE: 11
LAST WEEK: W 2-1 at New York RB NEXT WEEK: at (23) Toronto
14 DC United (5pts 1W-3L-2D) SCORE: 5.2496 PREV: NA H14/L14 SCHEDULE: 2
LAST WEEK: bye NEXT WEEK: at (22) Philadelphia
15 Vancouver Whitecaps (10pts 3W-4L-1D) SCORE: 5.2332 PREV: NA H15/L15 SCHEDULE: 4
LAST WEEK: L 6-0 at Sporting KC NEXT WEEK: vs (11) Real Salt Lake
16 Houston Dynamo (8pts 2W-2L-2D) SCORE: 4.8965 PREV: NA H16/L16 SCHEDULE: 19
LAST WEEK: W 5-1 vs Toronto NEXT WEEK: at (17) Minnesota
17 Minnesota United (6pts 2W-5L-0D) SCORE: 4.6701 PREV: NA H17/L17 SCHEDULE: 10
LAST WEEK: L 3-1 at Seattle NEXT WEEK: vs (16) Houston
18 Seattle Sounders (4pts 1W-3L-1D) SCORE: 4.294 PREV: NA H18/L18 SCHEDULE: 3
LAST WEEK W 3-1 vs Minnesota NEXT WEEK: at (3) LAFC
19 Montreal Impact (6pts 2W-5L-0D) SCORE: 4.1367 PREV: NA H19/L19 SCHEDULE: 17
LAST WEEK: L 5-3 vs LAFC NEXT WEEK: at (1) Atlanta
20 Columbus Crew (11pts 3W-3L-2D) SCORE: 4.1142 PREV: NA H20/L20 SCHEDULE: 23
LAST WEEK: D 2-2 vs New England NEXT WEEK: vs (21) San Jose
21 San Jose Earthquakes (5pts 1W-3L-2D) SCORE: 3.7336 PREV: NA H21/L21 SCHEDULE: 8
LAST WEEK: L 3-2 at Orlando NEXT WEEK: at (20) Columbus
22 Philadelphia Union (5pts 1W-3L-2D) SCORE: 2.8796 PREV: NA H22/L22 SCHEDULE: 9
LAST WEEK: L 2-0 at FC Dallas NEXT WEEK: vs (14) DC United
23 Toronto FC (3pts 1W-4L-0D) SCORE: 1.9183 PREV: NA H23/L23 SCHEDULE: 18
LAST WEEK: L 5-1 at Houston NEXT WEEK: vs (13) Chicago
Once again I shall attempt to use the SFPI to predict results across the league. I am going to tweak my formula a little bit as I don’t think I was giving home teams enough credit last year, and will give the home team a 1.75 point bonus and if the teams are within 1.25 pts of each other then call it a draw. Because as Portland and NYC showed this week, winning on the road is hard, even if by all accounts you are a vastly superior team.
RSL at Vancouver: DRAW
Montreal at Atlanta: ATLANTA
Chicago at Toronto: CHICAGO
DC at Philadelphia: DRAW
San Jose at Columbus: COLUMBUS
SKC at New England: DRAW
Houston at Minnesota: MINNESOTA
New York RB at LA Galaxy: LA
Orlando at Colorado: DRAW
Dallas at New York City: NEW YORK
Seattle at LAFC: LAFC
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS/TIMBERS ROOTING INTEREST
Both of these features will be on hold until we get closer to the end of the season, probably once every team has 15 games or less remaining.
Here’s to breaking the Even Year Curse!