SFPI MLS Power Rankings (MLS Week 11)

The dust has settled on Week 11, and despite a surprising midweek home loss, Atlanta rebounded quickly with a convincing road win at Orlando to remain atop the rankings. More importantly, Portland claimed the 100th all time, all era, all competition meeting between teams from Portland and Seattle with a late Sebastian “Chucky” Blanco goal to earn only their second four-game winning streak in their MLS history (and first time with three consecutive shutout wins). Meanwhile, up north, Toronto crashed back to the bottom of the rankings following an 0-2 week.

One thing I have noticed this week is that the middle of the pack (11-19) are really packed in together while 1-10 have separated themselves. The distance between #10 New England and #11 Seattle (0.9107 points) is greater than the distance between #11 Seattle and #19 DC (0.8227 points). This means that we can probably expect some seemingly massive swings within that range over the next few weeks as sometimes the difference maker between two teams can be as small as whether a team was at home or on the road that week.

As always, a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:

The SFPI has two main Components, “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on the field results, and “Strength of Schedule” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.

PERFORMANCE SCORE

A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:

• Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.
• Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
• Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over entire season.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponents Points Per Game at Home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that amount of times. Weighted at less than 100%

Those combine to give a team’s TOTAL SCORE. Teams are then ranked in order of highest to lowest by Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.

The biggest winner this week by position is Columbus, unbeaten in their last five (3W-0L-2D) with 2 big home victories this week climbing 9 spots. The biggest losers are Colorado and DC, both with only 3 points in their last five tumbling 6 spots. By points the biggest winner this week is Columbus gaining 2.4783 points and the biggest loser is Toronto giving 1.2919 points back to the field.

FEATURES OF NOTE

• Strength of Schedule: How tough is a teams schedule in relation to the rest of the league? numbered 1-23 with 1 being the hardest to date, and 23 being the easiest.
• Remaining Schedule: Same as above, only for games remaining. Also ranked 1-23 where 1 is hardest, 23 is easiest.
• Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also showing how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.

Here. We. GO!!

(record is W-L-D format, *Denotes above Red Line)

1 *Atlanta United (25pts 8-2-1) Score: 10.8991 (-0.4868); Prev: 1 (NC); High 1 Low 1

Schedule: 15 (+2); Pace: 77 (Prev: 83); Remaining Schedule: 16 (-5)

Last Week: L 2-0 v Sporting KC, W 2-1 at Orlando; Next Week: v (3) New York RB

Total Weeks at #1: 4 (4 consecutive)

2 *LAFC (20pts 6-2-2) Score: 9.9595 (+0.5247); Prev: 4 (+2); High 2 Low 4

Schedule: 18 (+1); Pace: 68 (Prev: 68); Remaining Schedule: 19 (+2)

Last Week: W 2-0 v Minnesota, D 2-2 v New York City FC; Next Week: at (6) Portland

3 *New York RB (18pts 6-3-0) Score: 9.5207 (+1.0106); Prev: 5 (+2); High 3 Low 12

Schedule: 19 (-5); Pace: 68 (Prev: 63); Remaining Schedule: 8 (NC)

Last Week: W 2-1 at Colorado; Next Week: at (1) Atlanta

4 *New York City FC (21pts 6-2-3) Score: 9.3176 (-0.1379); Prev: 3 (-1); High 2 Low 4

Schedule: 3 (+1); Pace: 64 (Prev: 68); Remaining Schedule: 23 (-6)

Last Week: D 2-2 at LAFC; Next Week: v (21) Colorado

5 *Sporting KC (23pts 7-2-2) Score: 9.0535 (+1.1742); Prev: 7 (+2); High 4 Low 7

Schedule: 22 (NC); Pace: 71 (Prev: 68); Remaining Schedule: 11 (-4)

Last Week: W 2-0 at Atlanta; Next Week: at (14) Minnesota

6 *Portland (14pts 4-3-2) Score: 8.6184 (+0.6977); Prev: 6 (NC); High 6 Low 9

Schedule: 13 (-1); Pace: 52 (Prev: 46); Remaining Schedule: 21 (+2)

Last Week: W 1-0 v Seattle; Next Week: v (2) LAFC

7 *Orlando (19pts 6-3-1) Score: 8.4904 (-1.1467); Prev: 2 (-5); High 2 Low 7

Schedule: 12 (+6); Pace: 64 (Prev: 71); Remaining Schedule: 5 (-1)

Last Week: L 2-1 v Atlanta; Next Week: at (23) Toronto

8 *FC Dallas (16pts 4-1-4) Score: 8.1679 (+0.8186); Prev: 8 (NC) High 5 Low 8

Schedule: 14 (-1); Pace: 60 (Prev: 55); Remaining Schedule: 15 (+4)

Last Week: W 3-2 v LA Galaxy; Next Week: v (15) Vancouver

9 *Columbus (21pts 6-3-3) Score: 7.0601 (+2.4783); Prev: 18 (+9); High 9 Low 20

Schedule: 23 (NC); Pace: 59 (Prev: 51); Remaining Schedule: 1 (NC)

Last Week: W 1-0 v Philadelphia, W 3-0 v Chicago; Next Week: at (10) New England

10 *New England (17pts 5-3-2) Score: 6.591 (+0.1642); Prev: 9 (-1); High 6 Low 10

Schedule: 16 (-1); Pace: 57 (Prev: 52); Remaining Schedule: 9 (NC)

Last Week: W 3-2 v Toronto; Next Week: v (9) Columbus

11 Seattle (8pts 2-5-2) Score: 5.6803 (+1.3883); Prev: 19 (+8); High 11 Low 19

Schedule: 4 (-1); Pace: 30 (Prev: 24); Remaining Schedule: 18 (-2)

Last Week: W 2-1 at Toronto, L 1-0 at Portland; Next Week: Bye

12 Houston (12pts 3-3-3) Score: 5.589 (+0.1137); Prev: 11 (-1); High 11 Low 16

Schedule: 20 (NC); Pace: 45 (Prev: 46); Remaining Schedule: 4 (+1)

Last Week: D 2-2 at Vancouver; Next Week: at (13) Chicago

13 Chicago (11pts 3-5-2) Score: 5.133 (-0.1438); Prev: 12 (-1); High 12 Low 13

Schedule: 8 (-2); Pace: 37 (Prev: 34); Remaining Schedule: 13 (-1)

Last Week: W 1-0 v Montreal, L 3-0 at Columbus; Next Week: v (12) Houston

14 Minnesota (12pts 4-7-0) Score: 5.0431 (-0.7239): Prev: 10 (-4); High 10 Low 18

Schedule: 7 (+3); Pace: 37 (Prev: 45); Remaining Schedule: 14 (NC)

Last Week: L 2-0 at LAFC, L 3-1 v San Jose; Next Week: v (5) Sporting KC

15 *Vancouver (14pts 4-5-2) Score: 5.0158 (+0.2823); Prev: 17 (+2); High 11 Low 17

Schedule: 10 (+1); Pace: 43 (Prev: 44); Remaining Schedule: 20 (+2)

Last Week: D 2-2 v Houston; Next Week: v (17) San Jose, at (8) FC Dallas

16 *Real Salt Lake (13pts 4-5-1) Score: 4.8747 (-0.0605); Prev: 14 (-2); High 11 Low 16

Schedule: 11 (-4); Pace: 44 (Prev: 37); Remaining Schedule: 6 (+7)

Last Week: W 3-2 v DC United; Next Week: at (20) Philadelphia

17 San Jose (9 pts 2-5-2) Score: 4.8053 (+1.6229); Prev: 22 (+5); High 17 Low 22

Schedule: 6 (-1); Pace: 30 (Prev: 21); Remaining Schedule: 17 (+3)

Last Week: W 3-1 at Minnesota; Next Week: at (15) Vancouver, v (19) DC United

18 LA Galaxy (10 pts 3-6-1) Score: 4.7979 (+0.0596); Prev: 16 (-2); High 9 Low 18

Schedule: 1 (NC); Pace: 34 (Prev: 37); Remaining Schedule: 22 (-5)

Last Week: L 3-2 at FC Dallas; Next Week: at (22) Montreal

19 DC United (5 pts 1-5-2) Score: 4.7976 (-0.2583); Prev: 13 (-6) High 13 Low 19

Schedule: 2 (NC); Pace: 21 (Prev: 24); Remaining Schedule: 7 (-1)

Last Week: L 3-2 at RSL; Next Week: at (17) San Jose

20 Philadelphia (11 pts 3-5-2) Score: 4.3824 (+1.5025); Prev: 23 (+3); High 20 Low 23

Schedule: 17 (-1); Pace: 37 (Prev: 34); Remaining Schedule: 2 (NC)

Last Week: L 1-0 at Columbus, W 2-0 at Montreal; Next Week: v (16) RSL

21 Colorado (8pts 2-5-2) Score: 4.1465 (-0.6759); Prev: 15 (-6); High 10 Low 21

Schedule: 5 (+4); Pace: 30 (Prev: 34); Remaining Schedule: 12 (+6)

Last Week: L 2-1 v New York RB; Next Week: at (4) New York City FC

22 Montreal (9pts 3-8-0) Score: 3.4028 (-0.8712); Prev: 20 (-2); High 19 Low 22

Schedule: 9 (-1); Pace: 27 (Prev: 34); Remaining Schedule: 10 (NC)

Last Week: L 1-0 at Chicago, L 2-0; Next Week: v (18) LA Galaxy

23 Toronto (7pts 2-6-1) Score: 2.1265 (-1.2919); Prev: 21 (-2); High 21 Low 23

Schedule: 10 (+1); Pace: 26 (Prev: 34); Remaining Schedule: 3 (NC)

Last Week: L 2-1 v Seattle, L 3-2 at New England; Next Week: v (7) Orlando

PREDICTIONS

Last week, the SFPI went 9-7 (56.25%) For its first above 50% week of the year, bringing the season total to 18-20 (47.37%). Again, the formula is to add 1.75 points to the home team’s score, and then if the two teams are within 1.25 points of each other call it a draw.

San Jose at Vancouver: VANCOUVER

Orlando at Toronto: ORLANDO

Colorado at New York City FC: NEW YORK

LAFC at Portland: DRAW

Vancouver at Dallas: DALLAS

Columbus at New England: NEW ENGLAND

Real Salt Lake at Philadelphia: PHIALELPHIA

DC United at San Jose: SAN JOSE

Sporting KC at Minnesota: SPORTING KC

Houston at Chicago: CHICAGO

New York RB at Atlanta: ATLANTA

LA Galaxy at Montreal: DRAW