SFPI MLS Power Rankings Week 12

Another week (one with a late, odd ending) is down and for the first time in 2018, we have a new top team! In fact, both of the top 2 teams fell last week as Atlanta dropped a 3-1 heartbreaker at home and LAFC got Samuel Armenteros’d in the 80th minute at Portland to lose 2-1. Other notable action included Zlatan receiving only the 8th red card of his career just before halftime in Montreal, yet LA was able to find the winner in the second half to pull out a 1-0 victory; and Columbus is continuing their surge in the east, as they are now unbeaten in their last 6 (4 wins, 2 draws).

This week’s biggest winner by position was DC United jumping 8 spots after dismantling San Jose on the road (again, usual cautions about seemingly wild swings in the middle of the pack). The biggest loser is Chicago, falling 7 spots after losing at home (where they are now 2W-4L-1D) to Houston.

By points, DC is also the big winner gaining 1.7498 points this week. Biggest loser is Atlanta dropping 1.473 points.

As always, a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:

The SFPI has two main Components, “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on the field results, and “Strength of Schedule” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.

PERFORMANCE SCORE

A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:

Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.

Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played

Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over entire season.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponents Points Per Game at Home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that amount of times. Weighted at less than 100%.

Those combine to give a team’s TOTAL SCORE. Teams are then ranked in order of highest to lowest by Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.

FEATURES OF NOTE

• Strength of Schedule: How tough is a teams schedule in relation to the rest of the league? numbered 1-23 with 1 being the hardest to date, and 23 being the easiest.
• Remaining Schedule: Same as above, only for games remaining. Also ranked 1-23 where 1 is hardest, 23 is easiest.
• Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also showing how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.

(Record is W-L-D *Denotes above red line)

1 *New York RB (21pts 7-3-0) Score: 10.353 (+0.8323); Prev: 3 (+2); High 1 Low 12

Schedule: 19 (NC); Pace: 68 (Prev: 64); Remaining Schedule: 3 (+8)

Last Week: W 3-1 at Atlanta; Next Week: vs (13) Philadelphia

Total Weeks at #1: 1 (1 Consecutive)

2 *Portland (17pts 5-3-2) Score: 9.869 (+1.2506); Prev: 6 (+4); High 2 Low 9

Schedule: 15 (-2); Pace: 57 (Prev: 52); Remaining Schedule: 23 (-2)

Last Week: W 2-1 vs LAFC; Next Week: at (22) Colorado

3 *New York City FC (24pts 7-2-3) Score: 9.6467 (+0.3291); Prev: 4 (+1); High 2 Low 4

Schedule: 7 (-4); Pace: 68 (Prev: 64); Remaining Schedule: 18 (+5)

Last Week: W 4-0 vs Colorado; Next Week: at (10) Houston

4 *Atlanta (25pts 8-3-1) Score: 9.4261 (-1.473); Prev: 1 (-3); High 1 Low 4

Schedule: 12 (+3); Pace: 70 (Prev: 77); Remaining Schedule: 16 (NC)

Last Week: L 3-1 vs New York RB; Next Week: Bye

Total Weeks at #1: 4

5 *LAFC (20pts 6-3-2) Score: 8.9695 (-0.99); Prev: 2 (-3); High 2 Low 5

Schedule: 17 (+1); Pace: 61 (Prev: 68); Remaining Schedule: 21 (-2)

Last Week: L 2-1 at Portland; Next Week: vs (11) DC United

6 *Sporting KC (24pts 7-2-3) Score: 8.8037 (-0.2498); Prev: 5 (-1); High 4 Low 7

Schedule: 22 (NC); Pace: 68 (Prev: 71); Remaining Schedule: 8 (+3)

Last Week: D 1-1 at Minnesota; Next Week: vs (7) Columbus

7 *Columbus (24pts 7-3-3) Score: 8.6252 (+1.5651); Prev: 9 (+2); High 7 Low 20

Schedule: 23 (NC); Pace: 62 (Prev: 59); Remaining Schedule: 1 (NC)

Last Week: W 1-0 at New England; Next Week: at (6) Sporting KC

8 *Orlando (19pts 6-4-1) Score: 7.3212 (-1.1692); Prev: 7 (-1); High 2 Low 8

Schedule: 14 (-2); Pace: 58 (Prev: 64); Remaining Schedule: 6 (-1)

Last Week: L 2-1 at Toronto; Next Week: vs (20) Chicago

9 *FC Dallas (17pts 4-1-5) Score: 7.2617 (-0.9062); Prev: 8 (-1); High 5 Low 9

Schedule: 16 (-2); Pace: 57 (Prev: 60); Remaining Schedule: 13 (+2)

Last Week: D 2-2 vs Vancouver; Next Week: at (21) Toronto

10 *Houston (15pts 4-3-3) Score: 6.9242 (+1.3352); Prev: 12 (+2); High 10 Low 16

Schedule: 21 (-1); Pace: 51 (Prev: 45); Remaining Schedule: 5 (-1)

Last Week: W 3-2 at Chicago; Next Week: vs (3) New York City FC

11 DC United (8pts 2-5-2) Score: 6.5474 (+1.7498); Prev: 19 (+8); High 11 Low 19

Schedule: 2 (NC); Pace: 30 (Prev: 21); Remaining Schedule: 10 (-3)

Last Week: W 3-1 at San Jose; Next Week: at (5) LAFC

12 *New England (17pts 5-4-2) Score: 6.2612 (-0.3298); Prev: 10 (-2); High 6 Low 12

Schedule: 13 (+3); Pace: 52 (Prev: 57); Remaining Schedule: 11 (-2)

Last Week: L 1-0 vs Columbus; Next Week: at (15) Vancouver

13 Seattle (8pts 2-5-2) Score: 5.6776 (-0.0027); Prev: 11 (-2); High 11 Low 19

Schedule: 5 (-1); Pace: 30 (Prev: 30); Remaining Schedule: 19 (-1)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: vs (18) Real Salt Lake

14 Philadelphia (14pts 4-5-2) Score: 5.6993 (+1.3169); Prev: 20 (+6); High 14 Low 23

Schedule: 18 (-1); Pace: 43 (Prev: 37); Remaining Schedule: 2 (NC)

Last Week: W 4-1 vs Real Salt Lake; Next Week: at (1) New York RB

15 *Vancouver (16pts 4-5-4) Score: 5.5777 (+0.5619); Prev: 15 (NC); High 11 Low 17

Schedule: 11 (-1); Pace: 41 (Prev: 43); Remaining Schedule: 14 (+6)

Last Week: D 2-2 vs San Jose, D 2-2 at FC Dallas; Next Week: vs (12) New England

16 LA Galaxy (13pts 4-6-1) Score: 5.4311 (+0.6332); Prev: 18 (+2); High 9 Low 18

Schedule: 1 (NC); Pace: 40 (Prev: 34); Remaining Schedule: 20 (+2)

Last Week: W 1-0 at Montreal; Next Week: vs (19) San Jose

17 Minnesota (13pts 4-7-1) Score: 5.2061 (+0.163); Prev: 14 (-3) High 10 Low 18

Schedule: 8 (-1); Pace: 36 (Prev: 37); Remaining Schedule: 17 (-3)

Last Week: D 1-1 vs Sporting KC; Next Week: vs (23) Montreal

18 Real Salt Lake (13pts 4-6-1) Score: 4.6551 (-0.2537); Prev: 16 (-2) High 11 Low 18

Schedule: 9 (+2); Pace: 40 (Prev: 44); Remaining Schedule: 9 (-3)

Last Week: L 4-1 at Philadelphia; Next Week: at (14) Seattle

19 San Jose (9pts 2-6-3) Score: 4.3634 (-0.4419); Prev: 17 (-2) High 17 Low 22

Schedule: 6 (NC); Pace: 27 (Prev: 30); Remaining Schedule: 22 (-5)

Last Week: D 2-2 at Vancouver, L 3-1 vs DC United; Next Week: at (16) LA Galaxy

20 Chicago (11pts 3-6-2) Score: 3.9044 (-1.2286); Prev: 13 (-7) High 12 Low 20

Schedule: 4 (+4); Pace: 34 (Prev: 37); Remaining Schedule: 12 (+1)

Last Week: L 3-2 vs Houston; Next Week: at (8) Orlando

21 Toronto (10pts 3-6-1) Score: 3.5028 (+1.3763); Prev: 23 (+2) High 21 Low 23

Schedule: 20 (+1); Pace: 34 (Prev: 26); Remaining Schedule: 4 (-1)

Last Week: W 2-1 vs Orlando; Next Week: vs (9) FC Dallas

22 Colorado (8pts 2-6-2) Score: 2.9419 (-1.2046); Prev: 21 (-1) High 10 Low 22

Schedule: 3 (+2); Pace: 27 (Prev: 30); Remaining Schedule: 15 (-3)

Last Week: L 4-0 at New York City FC; Next Week: vs (2) Portland

23 Montreal (9pts 3-9-0) Score: 2.585 (-0.8178); Prev: 22 (-1) High 19 Low 23

Schedule: 10 (-1); Pace: 25 (Prev: 27); Remaining Schedule: 7 (+3)

Last Week: L 1-0 vs LA Galaxy; Next Week: at (17) Minnesota

PREDICTIONS

Last week, the SFPI went 2-10 (16.67% OUCH!) to bring the season total to 20-30 (40%).

Formula remains adding 1.75 points to the home team score, and if within 1.25 points it will be a draw.

Dallas at Toronto: DALLAS

New York City FC at Houston: DRAW

San Jose at LA Galaxy: LA

Real Salt Lake at Seattle: SEATTLE

New England at Vancouver: DRAW

Philadelphia at New York RB: NEW YORK

Chicago at Orlando: ORLANDO

Montreal at Minnesota: MINNESOTA

Portland at Colorado: PORTLAND

DC at LAFC: LAFC