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Another week (one with a late, odd ending) is down and for the first time in 2018, we have a new top team! In fact, both of the top 2 teams fell last week as Atlanta dropped a 3-1 heartbreaker at home and LAFC got Samuel Armenteros’d in the 80th minute at Portland to lose 2-1. Other notable action included Zlatan receiving only the 8th red card of his career just before halftime in Montreal, yet LA was able to find the winner in the second half to pull out a 1-0 victory; and Columbus is continuing their surge in the east, as they are now unbeaten in their last 6 (4 wins, 2 draws).
This week’s biggest winner by position was DC United jumping 8 spots after dismantling San Jose on the road (again, usual cautions about seemingly wild swings in the middle of the pack). The biggest loser is Chicago, falling 7 spots after losing at home (where they are now 2W-4L-1D) to Houston.
By points, DC is also the big winner gaining 1.7498 points this week. Biggest loser is Atlanta dropping 1.473 points.
As always, a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:
The SFPI has two main Components, “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on the field results, and “Strength of Schedule” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.
PERFORMANCE SCORE
A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:
Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.
Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over entire season.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponents Points Per Game at Home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that amount of times. Weighted at less than 100%.
Those combine to give a team’s TOTAL SCORE. Teams are then ranked in order of highest to lowest by Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.
FEATURES OF NOTE
- Strength of Schedule: How tough is a teams schedule in relation to the rest of the league? numbered 1-23 with 1 being the hardest to date, and 23 being the easiest.
- Remaining Schedule: Same as above, only for games remaining. Also ranked 1-23 where 1 is hardest, 23 is easiest.
- Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also showing how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.
(Record is W-L-D *Denotes above red line)
1 *New York RB (21pts 7-3-0) Score: 10.353 (+0.8323); Prev: 3 (+2); High 1 Low 12
Schedule: 19 (NC); Pace: 68 (Prev: 64); Remaining Schedule: 3 (+8)
Last Week: W 3-1 at Atlanta; Next Week: vs (13) Philadelphia
Total Weeks at #1: 1 (1 Consecutive)
2 *Portland (17pts 5-3-2) Score: 9.869 (+1.2506); Prev: 6 (+4); High 2 Low 9
Schedule: 15 (-2); Pace: 57 (Prev: 52); Remaining Schedule: 23 (-2)
Last Week: W 2-1 vs LAFC; Next Week: at (22) Colorado
3 *New York City FC (24pts 7-2-3) Score: 9.6467 (+0.3291); Prev: 4 (+1); High 2 Low 4
Schedule: 7 (-4); Pace: 68 (Prev: 64); Remaining Schedule: 18 (+5)
Last Week: W 4-0 vs Colorado; Next Week: at (10) Houston
4 *Atlanta (25pts 8-3-1) Score: 9.4261 (-1.473); Prev: 1 (-3); High 1 Low 4
Schedule: 12 (+3); Pace: 70 (Prev: 77); Remaining Schedule: 16 (NC)
Last Week: L 3-1 vs New York RB; Next Week: Bye
Total Weeks at #1: 4
5 *LAFC (20pts 6-3-2) Score: 8.9695 (-0.99); Prev: 2 (-3); High 2 Low 5
Schedule: 17 (+1); Pace: 61 (Prev: 68); Remaining Schedule: 21 (-2)
Last Week: L 2-1 at Portland; Next Week: vs (11) DC United
6 *Sporting KC (24pts 7-2-3) Score: 8.8037 (-0.2498); Prev: 5 (-1); High 4 Low 7
Schedule: 22 (NC); Pace: 68 (Prev: 71); Remaining Schedule: 8 (+3)
Last Week: D 1-1 at Minnesota; Next Week: vs (7) Columbus
7 *Columbus (24pts 7-3-3) Score: 8.6252 (+1.5651); Prev: 9 (+2); High 7 Low 20
Schedule: 23 (NC); Pace: 62 (Prev: 59); Remaining Schedule: 1 (NC)
Last Week: W 1-0 at New England; Next Week: at (6) Sporting KC
8 *Orlando (19pts 6-4-1) Score: 7.3212 (-1.1692); Prev: 7 (-1); High 2 Low 8
Schedule: 14 (-2); Pace: 58 (Prev: 64); Remaining Schedule: 6 (-1)
Last Week: L 2-1 at Toronto; Next Week: vs (20) Chicago
9 *FC Dallas (17pts 4-1-5) Score: 7.2617 (-0.9062); Prev: 8 (-1); High 5 Low 9
Schedule: 16 (-2); Pace: 57 (Prev: 60); Remaining Schedule: 13 (+2)
Last Week: D 2-2 vs Vancouver; Next Week: at (21) Toronto
10 *Houston (15pts 4-3-3) Score: 6.9242 (+1.3352); Prev: 12 (+2); High 10 Low 16
Schedule: 21 (-1); Pace: 51 (Prev: 45); Remaining Schedule: 5 (-1)
Last Week: W 3-2 at Chicago; Next Week: vs (3) New York City FC
11 DC United (8pts 2-5-2) Score: 6.5474 (+1.7498); Prev: 19 (+8); High 11 Low 19
Schedule: 2 (NC); Pace: 30 (Prev: 21); Remaining Schedule: 10 (-3)
Last Week: W 3-1 at San Jose; Next Week: at (5) LAFC
12 *New England (17pts 5-4-2) Score: 6.2612 (-0.3298); Prev: 10 (-2); High 6 Low 12
Schedule: 13 (+3); Pace: 52 (Prev: 57); Remaining Schedule: 11 (-2)
Last Week: L 1-0 vs Columbus; Next Week: at (15) Vancouver
13 Seattle (8pts 2-5-2) Score: 5.6776 (-0.0027); Prev: 11 (-2); High 11 Low 19
Schedule: 5 (-1); Pace: 30 (Prev: 30); Remaining Schedule: 19 (-1)
Last Week: Bye; Next Week: vs (18) Real Salt Lake
14 Philadelphia (14pts 4-5-2) Score: 5.6993 (+1.3169); Prev: 20 (+6); High 14 Low 23
Schedule: 18 (-1); Pace: 43 (Prev: 37); Remaining Schedule: 2 (NC)
Last Week: W 4-1 vs Real Salt Lake; Next Week: at (1) New York RB
15 *Vancouver (16pts 4-5-4) Score: 5.5777 (+0.5619); Prev: 15 (NC); High 11 Low 17
Schedule: 11 (-1); Pace: 41 (Prev: 43); Remaining Schedule: 14 (+6)
Last Week: D 2-2 vs San Jose, D 2-2 at FC Dallas; Next Week: vs (12) New England
16 LA Galaxy (13pts 4-6-1) Score: 5.4311 (+0.6332); Prev: 18 (+2); High 9 Low 18
Schedule: 1 (NC); Pace: 40 (Prev: 34); Remaining Schedule: 20 (+2)
Last Week: W 1-0 at Montreal; Next Week: vs (19) San Jose
17 Minnesota (13pts 4-7-1) Score: 5.2061 (+0.163); Prev: 14 (-3) High 10 Low 18
Schedule: 8 (-1); Pace: 36 (Prev: 37); Remaining Schedule: 17 (-3)
Last Week: D 1-1 vs Sporting KC; Next Week: vs (23) Montreal
18 Real Salt Lake (13pts 4-6-1) Score: 4.6551 (-0.2537); Prev: 16 (-2) High 11 Low 18
Schedule: 9 (+2); Pace: 40 (Prev: 44); Remaining Schedule: 9 (-3)
Last Week: L 4-1 at Philadelphia; Next Week: at (14) Seattle
19 San Jose (9pts 2-6-3) Score: 4.3634 (-0.4419); Prev: 17 (-2) High 17 Low 22
Schedule: 6 (NC); Pace: 27 (Prev: 30); Remaining Schedule: 22 (-5)
Last Week: D 2-2 at Vancouver, L 3-1 vs DC United; Next Week: at (16) LA Galaxy
20 Chicago (11pts 3-6-2) Score: 3.9044 (-1.2286); Prev: 13 (-7) High 12 Low 20
Schedule: 4 (+4); Pace: 34 (Prev: 37); Remaining Schedule: 12 (+1)
Last Week: L 3-2 vs Houston; Next Week: at (8) Orlando
21 Toronto (10pts 3-6-1) Score: 3.5028 (+1.3763); Prev: 23 (+2) High 21 Low 23
Schedule: 20 (+1); Pace: 34 (Prev: 26); Remaining Schedule: 4 (-1)
Last Week: W 2-1 vs Orlando; Next Week: vs (9) FC Dallas
22 Colorado (8pts 2-6-2) Score: 2.9419 (-1.2046); Prev: 21 (-1) High 10 Low 22
Schedule: 3 (+2); Pace: 27 (Prev: 30); Remaining Schedule: 15 (-3)
Last Week: L 4-0 at New York City FC; Next Week: vs (2) Portland
23 Montreal (9pts 3-9-0) Score: 2.585 (-0.8178); Prev: 22 (-1) High 19 Low 23
Schedule: 10 (-1); Pace: 25 (Prev: 27); Remaining Schedule: 7 (+3)
Last Week: L 1-0 vs LA Galaxy; Next Week: at (17) Minnesota
PREDICTIONS
Last week, the SFPI went 2-10 (16.67% OUCH!) to bring the season total to 20-30 (40%).
Formula remains adding 1.75 points to the home team score, and if within 1.25 points it will be a draw.
Dallas at Toronto: DALLAS
New York City FC at Houston: DRAW
San Jose at LA Galaxy: LA
Real Salt Lake at Seattle: SEATTLE
New England at Vancouver: DRAW
Philadelphia at New York RB: NEW YORK
Chicago at Orlando: ORLANDO
Montreal at Minnesota: MINNESOTA
Portland at Colorado: PORTLAND
DC at LAFC: LAFC