Rose City Forecast 11: Colorado Rapids vs Portland Timbers

Welcome to the next edition of Rose City Forecast, the Stumptown Footy prediction thread! Last week, the Timbers had their fourth home match of the season and came away with their fourth home win, and fifth overall. Also, those five were all in a row. For the first time in Timbers MLS history, they own a five game win streak!

Last week’s win came at the expense of expansion club LAFC on a score of 2-1, breaking the Timbers’ three-game shutout streak. PTFC got on the board first when LAFC keeper Tyler Miller spilled Diego Valeri’s free kick seven minutes into the second half and Cristhian Paredes finished the rebound. Twenty minute later, LAFC got on the scoreboard through a Carlos Vela golazo, and for a few minutes, it looked like the Timbers might have to settle for a draw. However, Samuel Armenteros decided that wasn’t going to be the result when he picked up the ball at midfield, dribbled all the way to the 18-yard box, and smashed an absolute rocket into the back of the net. For the third time in as many games, Armenteros helped change the result in the Timbers’ favor after the 80th minute.

Richard Hamje earned the pick of the week by calling the 2-1 scoreline, a Vela goal, the Paredes assist, and that there would be lots of yellow cards. Shout out to shrekpdx and Timbers Pride for also guessing the correct score. The wild points go to lefthanded49 for suggesting that we might get to see Will Farrell steal Timber Joey’s chainsaw after Carlos Vela’s goal, at which point Timber Joey would chase him out of Providence Park.

A perfect prediction worth 17 points:

2-1 Timbers

Cristhian Paredes; Samuel Armenteros (Cristhian Paredes)

Carlos Vela (Eduard Atuesta)

First yellow to Steven Beitashour

Over on total cards.

PTFC travels to Denver this weekend to face the wooden-spoon contestant Colorado Rapids. After ten games, the Rapids have just 8 points. After ten games (and the five-game streak), the Timbers have 17. That said, this has all the makings of a trap game. Portland has won in Commerce City only once. All 8 points the Rapids own have been earned at home. The Timbers lost Liam Ridgewell last weekend to injury, and he isn’t expected to return for at least a couple weeks. All of the Timbers’ shutouts came with him in the line up. Historically, PTFC has been outscored by more than a factor of two when playing in Colorado. So, the question is: The Timbers are clearly the better side, but is that enough to overcome the difficulties of an away match at over 5000 feet?

Total Cards O/U: 4.5

The Scoring Format:

• Correct score: 5 points
• Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points
• Each clean sheet: 2 points
• Each goal-scorer: 1 point
• Each FK/PK/assist/lack of assist: 1 point
• Goal/assist bonus: 1 point
• Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point
• Each player with a red card: 1 point (Cannot earn points for predicting 0 red cards, but you may predict up to 3 players with a red.)
• Over/under on total cards: 1 point
• Most outrageous(ly accurate) prediction: 2 points

Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications (the fine print):

You may amend your prediction at any point up to kick off to account for game day 18 announcements. I recommend at least getting an initial prediction sooner, just in case you forget to come back in that hour or two before the game.

Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. Basically, if you’re predicting lots of goals all the time to just earn points on goals and assists and ignoring the score, I feel that goes against the spirit of this thread. This hasn’t been at all a problem in the last two years, so let’s keep it that way!

The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you correctly get the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal. (e.g., if Nagbe scores, assisted by Valeri, and you predicted that exact combination you get a total of three points - 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 bonus. However, if you predicted Nagbe scores assisted by Adi and Adi scores assisted by Valeri, you would get two points from the Nagbe/Valeri prediction - 1 goal, 1 assist)

Please be clear whether you think a goal will be unassisted, assisted, or from a PK/FK. Unassisted = no assist, run of play; Assisted = player who got the assist; PK/FK = directly from a free kick. For the purposes of this thread, a PK counts as a FK, and a FK as a PK. If you just leave the assist section blank, I will assume you’re declining to make an assist prediction.

Even though a player can be awarded a secondary assist by OPTA, I will award a maximum of one assist point per goal. But that point can come from either the primary or secondary assist in the box score. However, please keep your predictions to one assist per goal.

For the over/under on cards, a second yellow leading to a red counts as two cards, not three.

You may predict more than one red card if you’re expecting a chippy match, but only up to three total.

For the most outrageous(ly accurate) prediction, I will be trying to toe a line between completely absurd and mundane in my choices. As I see it, the goal here is to add even more fun without going too over-the-top ridiculous. So, in my mind, the best predictions will be something that could conceivably happen, but don’t happen often, like amusing coaching spats or goals that bounce off the crossbar, then off the keeper’s back, and then in. Things like that.

If you’re looking for where I set the over/under on total cards, check the end of the preview paragraph after the standings.

Format:

In the comment title, post your predicted score with the winners, eg: 4-2 Timbers

In the body of your comment, start with the goals and assists, like so:

Nagbe (Valeri)

Valeri (Free kick)

Adi (PK)

Blanco (Unassisted)

Beckham (Free kick)

Donovan (Beckham)

Next, choose your first yellow card, and that means picking only one person.

First yellow to Nigel De Jong

Then reds, if any. (NOTE: no points awarded for correctly calling a red-card-free match, so take a guess.)

Nigel De Jong gets a red card for stomping Blanco.

Clearly note whether you’re predicting over or under on total cards. Don’t leave me to try and figure it out!

And lastly, make your fun prediction.

Nigel de Jong tries to stomp Nagbe’s ankle again, but this time, Nagbe avoids the tackle. Being angry Nagbe for the first time in three years, he kicks the ball straight into NDJ’s groin. Camera pans to a trademark Chara smile.

As always, any questions about anything?