SFPI MLS Week 13 Power Rankings

Week 13 is in, and as we rapidly approach the World Cup “break” many players are off to join their national teams. Portland extended its team record winning streak to 6, both Seattle and Toronto continue to struggle at home (losing to RSL and FC Dallas respectively). A Zlatan-less Galaxy won the Cali Classico and Orlando dropped its 3rd straight after their own 6 game winning streak.

The biggest winner by position this week was LA Galaxy climbing 5, and Orlando was the big loser dropping 5 slots. By points, Chicago was the biggest gainer at 1.2398. The biggest loser was Orlando, shedding 1.7177 this week, their second straight week of losing more than one whole point.

As always a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:

The SFPI has two main Components, “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on the field results, and “Strength of Schedule” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.

PERFORMANCE SCORE

A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:

• Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.
• Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
• Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over entire season.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponents Points Per Game at Home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that amount of times. Weighted at less than 100%.

Those combine to give a team’s TOTAL SCORE. Teams are then ranked in order of highest to lowest by Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.

FEATURES OF NOTE (Due to time restrictions because of travel these features will not be included this week)

• Strength of Schedule: How tough is a teams schedule in relation to the rest of the league? numbered 1-23 with 1 being the hardest to date, and 23 being the easiest.
• Remaining Schedule: Same as above, only for games remaining. Also ranked 1-23 where 1 is hardest, 23 is easiest.
• Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also showing how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.

(Record is W-L-D *Denotes above red line)

1 *New York RB (22pts 7-3-1) Score: 10.3842 (+0.0312); Prev: 1 (NC) High 1 Low 1

Total Weeks at #1: 2 (2 Consecutive)

2 *Portland (20pts 6-3-2) Score: 10.1374 (+0.2684); Prev: 2 (NC) High 2 Low 9

3 *Atlanta (25pts 8-3-1) Score: 9.3684 (-0.0577); Prev: 4 (+1) High 1 Low 4

4 *New York City (24pts 7-3-3) Score: 9.3063 (-0.3404); Prev: 3 (-1) High 2 Low 4

5 *Columbus (25pts 7-3-4) Score: 8.366 (-0.2592); Prev: 7 (+2) High 5 Low 20

6 *LAFC (21pts 6-3-3) Score: 8.2535 (-0.716); Prev: 5 (-1) High 2 Low 6

7 *Sporting KC (25pts 7-2-4) Score: 8.2079 (-0.5958); Prev: 6 (-1) High 4 Low 7

8 *FC Dallas (20pts 5-1-5) Score: 7.7236 (+0.4619); Prev: 9 (+1) High 5 Low 9

9 *Houston (18pts 5-3-3) Score: 7.486 (+0.5618); Prev: 10 (+1) High 9 Low 16

10 DC United (9 pts 2-5-3) Score: 6.8777 (+0.3296); Prev: 11 (+1) High 10 Low 19

11 LA Galaxy (16pts 5-6-1) Score: 6.3131 (+0.8819); Prev: 16 (+5) High 9 Low 18

12 *New England (18pts 5-4-3) Score: 6.0138 (-0.2474); Prev: 12 (NC) High 6 Low 12

13 *Orlando (19pts 6-5-1) Score: 5.6035 (-1.7177); Prev: 8 (-5) High 2 Low 13

14 Seattle (8pts 2-6-2) Score: 4.4517 (-1.2259); Prev: 13 (-1) High 11 Low 19

15 Philadelphia (15pts 4-5-3) Score: 5.4303 (-0.269); Prev: 14 (-1) High 14 Low 23

16 Chicago (14pts 4-6-2) Score: 5.1442 (+1.2398); Prev: 20 (+4) High12 Low 20

17 Minnesota (16pts 5-7-1) Score: 5.0689 (-0.1372); Prev: 17 (NC) High 10 Low 18

18 Real Salt Lake (16pts 5-6-1) Score: 5.0339 (+0.3788); Prev: 18 (NC) HIgh 11 Low 18

19 *Vancouver (17pts 4-5-5) Score: 4.9252 (-0.6525); Prev: 15 (-4) High 11 Low 19

20 San Jose (9pts 2-7-3) Score: 3.9631 (-0.4003); Prev: 19 (-1) High 17 Low 22

21 Toronto (10pts 3-7-1) Score: 2.69 (-0.8128); Prev: 21 (NC) High 21 Low 23

22 Montreal (9pts 3-10-0) Score: 2.3154 (-0.2696); Prev: 23 (+1) High 19 Low 23

23 Colorado (8pts 2-7-2) Score: 2.2748 (-0.6671); Prev: 22 (-1) High 10 Low 23

PREDICTIONS

Last week the SFPI went 6-4 (60%) for its best week by percentage. This brings the season total to 26-34 (43.33%). As always the formula is add 1.75 points to the home team score, and if the teams are then within 1.5 points I will predict a draw.

Atlanta at New England: ATLANTA

Chicago at Philadelphia: PHILADELPHIA

Houston at Real Salt Lake: DRAW

FC Dallas at LA Galaxy: DRAW

Vancouver at Colorado: DRAW

LA Galaxy at Portland: PORTLAND

Philadelphia at Atlanta: ATLANTA

Toronto at Columbus: COLUMBUS

Houston at Montreal: HOUSTON

New York RB at New England: NEW YORK

Orlando at New York City: NEW YORK

LAFC at FC Dallas: DRAW

San Jose at Chicago: CHICAGO

Seattle at Real Salt Lake: SALT LAKE

Minnesota at Sporting KC: SPORTING KC