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We are nearing the quarter pole of the 2018 MLS regular season as after this week everyone will have played at least 8 matches. Atlanta, unbeaten in their last nine (8 wins, 1 draw), is beginning to separate from the pack. Portland appears to be putting their bad start firmly in the rear view mirror with a 3 game winning streak (for only the 4th time in their MLS history), and Toronto, now able to focus solely on league play is beginning what they hope will be a long climb back up from the bottom of the table.
As always, a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:
The SFPI has two main Components, “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on-field results, and “Strength of Schedule” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.
PERFORMANCE SCORE
A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:
Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI
Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over entire season.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponents Points Per Game at Home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that amount of times. Weighted at less than 100%
For the purposes of ranking Strength of Schedule the number represents how hard a team’s schedule is in relation to the rest of the league. So 1 is the toughest and 23 is the easiest, same goes for Remaining Schedule: 1 is the toughest, 23 is the easiest.
Those combine to give a team’s TOTAL SCORE. Teams are then ranked in order of highest to lowest by Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.
This week’s big winner by position is Minnesota climbing 8 spots (although I think that is more of a reflection on the mediocrity of the middle of the pack more than the quality of the Loons, so let’s not get too carried away just yet). The biggest losers are the Galaxy, losers of three straight and with only 3 points in their last five, and Vancouver, also with only 3 points in their last 5, both falling 6 spots. By points Toronto was the biggest winner with a 1.568 score increase, while New England was the biggest loser shedding 1.6902 points off their score.
ONWARD!
1 Atlanta (22pts 7W-1L-1D) Score: 11.3859 (+0.322) Prev: 1 (NC) High 1 Low 1
Schedule: 17 (-2) Pace: 83 (Prev: 80) Remaining Schedule: 11 (+2)
Last Week: W 2-1 at Chicago. Next Week: vs (7) Sporting KC, at (2) Orlando
Consecutive Weeks at #1: 3
2 Orlando (19pts 6W-2L-1D) Score: 9.6371 (+0.1186) Prev: 3 (+1) High 2 Low 6
Schedule: 18 (-1) Pace: 71 (Prev: 68) Remaining Schedule: 4 (-1)
Last Week: W 3-1 vs RSL Next Week: vs (1) Atlanta
3 New York City FC (20pts 6W-2L-2D) Score: 9.4555 (-1.5682) Prev: 2 (-1) High 2 Low 3
Schedule: 4 (NC) Pace: 68 (Prev: 75) Remaining Schedule: 15 (+4)
Last Week: L 4-0 at New York RB Next Week: at (4) LAFC
4 LAFC (16pts 5W-2L-1D) Score: 9.4348 (+0.0516) Prev: 4 (NC) High 3 Low 4
Schedule: 19 (+2) Pace: 68 (Prev: 72) Remaining Schedule: 21 (-1)
Last Week: D 1-1 vs FC Dallas Next Week: vs (10) Minnesota, vs (3) New York City FC
5 New York RB (15pts 5W-3L-0D) Score: 8.5101 (+0.9157) Prev: 7 (+2) High 5 Low 12
Schedule: 14 (+5) Pace: 63 (Prev: 58) Remaining Schedule: 8 (-2)
Last Week: W 4-0 vs New York City FC Next Week: at (15) Colorado
6 Portland (11pts 3W-3L-2D) Score: 7.9207 (+0.8862) Prev: 9 (+3) High 6 Low 9
Schedule: 12 (-7) Pace: 46 (Prev: 38) Remaining Schedule: 23 (NC)
Last Week: W 1-0 at San Jose Next Week: vs (19) Seattle
7 Sporting KC (20pts 6W-2L-2D) Score: 7.8793 (-0.5616) Prev: 5 (-2) High 4 Low 7
Schedule: 22 (-2) Pace: 68 (Prev: 64) Remaining Schedule: 7 (+11)
Last Week: W 1-0 vs Colorado Next Week: at (1) Atlanta
8 FC Dallas (13pts 3W-1L-4D) Score: 7.3493 (+0.1125) Prev: 8 (NC) High 5 Low 8
Schedule: 13 (+1) Pace: 55 (Prev: 58) Remaining Schedule: 19 (-8)
Last Week: D 1-1 at LAFC Next Week: vs (16) LA Galaxy
9 New England (14pts 4W-3L-2D) Score: 6.4268 (-1.6902) Prev: 6 (-3) High 6 Low 9
Schedule: 15 (-3) Pace: 52 (Prev: 59) Remaining Schedule: 9 (+6)
Last Week: L 4-2 at Montreal Next Week: vs (21) Toronto
10 Minnesota (12pts 4W-5L-0D) Score: 5.767 (+1.2972) Prev: 18 (+8) High 10 Low 18
Schedule: 10 (-1) Pace: 45 (Prev: 38) Remaining Schedule: 14 (NC)
Last Week: W 1-0 vs Vancouver Next Week: at (4) LAFC, vs (22) San Jose
11 Houston (11pts 3W-3L-2D) Score: 5.4753 (+0.8626) Prev: 11 (+5) High 11 Low 16
Schedule: 20 (-2) Pace: 46 (Prev: 38) Remaining Schedule: 5 (+2)
Last Week: W 3-2 vs LA Galaxy Next Week: at (17) Vancouver
12 Chicago (8pts 2W-4L-2D) Score: 5.2768 (-0.0585) Prev: 13 (+1) High 12 Low 13
Schedule: 6 (+10) Pace: 34 (Prev: 38) Remaining Schedule: 12 (NC)
Last Week: L 2-1 vs Atlanta Next Week: vs (20) Montreal, at (18) Columbus
13 DC United (5pts 1W-4L-2D) Score: 5.0559 (+0.2464) Prev: 15 (+2) High 13 Low 15
Schedule: 2 (+1) Pace: 24 (Prev: 24) Remaining Schedule: 6 (-1)
Last Week: Bye Next Week: at (14) Real Salt Lake
14 Real Salt Lake (10pts 3W-5L-1D) Score: 4.9352 (-0.1794) Prev: 14 (NC) High 11 Low 14
Schedule: 7 (NC) Pace: 37 (Prev: 42) Remaining Schedule: 13 (-1)
Last Week: L 3-1 at Orlando Next Week: vs (13) DC United
15 Colorado (8pts 2W-4L-2D) Score: 4.8224 (-0.8851) Prev: 12 (-3) High 10 Low 15
Schedule: 9 (+2) Pace: 34 (Prev: 38) Remaining Schedule: 18 (-1)
Last Week: L 1-0 at Sporting KC Next Week: vs (5) New York RB
16 LA Galaxy (10pts 3W-5L-1D) Score: 4.7383 (-1.369) Prev: 10 (-6) High 9 Low 16
Schedule: 1 (NC) Pace: 37 (Prev: 42) Remaining Schedule: 17 (+4)
Last Week: L 3-2 at Houston Next Week: at (8) FC Dallas
17 Vancouver (13pts 4W-5L-1D) Score: 4.7335 (-1.0704) Prev: 11 (-6) High 11 Low 17
Schedule: 11 (-1) Pace: 44 (Prev: 49) Remaining Schedule: 22 (NC)
Last Week: L 1-0 at Minnesota Next Week: vs (11) Houston
18 Columbus (15pts 4W-3L-3D) Score: 4.5818 (+0.1087) Prev: 17 (-1) High 17 Low 20
Schedule: 23 (NC) Pace: 51 (Prev: 52) Remaining Schedule: 1 (NC)
Last Week: D 0-0 at Seattle Next Week: vs (23) Philadelphia, vs (12) Chicago
1
9 Seattle (5pts 1W-4L-2D) Score: 4.292 (+0.3011) Prev: 19 (NC) High 18 Low 19
Schedule: 3 (-1) Pace: 24 (Prev: 22) Remaining Schedule: 16 (-6)
Last Week: D 0-0 vs Columbus Next Week: at (21) Toronto, at (6) Portland
20 Montreal (9pts 3W-6L-0D) Score: 4.274 (+0.4252) Prev: 20 (NC) High 19 Low 20
Schedule: 8 (-2) Pace: 34 (Prev: 25) Remaining Schedule: 10 (-1)
Last Week: W 4-2 vs New England Next Week: at (12) Chicago, vs (23) Philadelphia
21 Toronto (7pts 2W-4L-1D) Score: 3.4184 (+1.568) Prev: 23 (+2) High 21 Low 23
Schedule: 21 (+1) Pace: 34 (Prev: 22) Remaining Schedule: 3 (-1)
Last Week: W 3-0 vs Philadelphia Next Week: vs (19) Seattle at (9) New England
22 San Jose (5pts 1W-5L-2D) Score: 3.1824 (-0.4901) Prev: 22 (NC) High 21 Low 22
Schedule: 5 (+3) Pace: 21 (Prev: 24) Remaining Schedule: 20 (-4)
Last Week: L 1-0 vs Portland Next Week: at (10) Minnesota
23 Philadelphia (8pts 2W-4L-2D) Score: 2.8799 (-0.8198) Prev: 21 (-2) High 21 Low 23
Schedule: 16 (-3) Pace: 34 (Prev: 38) Remaining Schedule: 2 (+2)
Last Week: L 3-0 at Toronto Next Week: at (18) Columbus, at (20) Montreal
PREDICTIONS
Last week the SFPI went 4-7 (36.36%) and is now 9-13 (40.91%) on the season. Hopefully a double game week will allow me to get back on track. Again, adding 1.75 points to the home team’s score, if the teams are then within 1.25 points of each other I will call it a draw.
Sporting KC at Atlanta: ATLANTA
Philadelphia at Columbus: COLUMBUS
Seattle at Toronto: DRAW
Montreal at Chicago: CHICAGO
Minnesota at LAFC: LAFC
Houston at Vancouver: DRAW
San Jose at Minnesota: MINNESOTA
Philadelphia at Montreal: MONTREAL
La Galaxy at FC Dallas: DALLAS
Chicago at Columbus: DRAW
Toronto at New England: NEW ENGLAND
New York RB at Colorado: NEW YORK
DC United at Real Salt Lake: RSL
Seattle at Portland: PORTLAND
Atlanta at Orlando: DRAW
New York City FC at LAFC: LAFC