SFPI MLS Power Rankings (MLS Week 10)

We are nearing the quarter pole of the 2018 MLS regular season as after this week everyone will have played at least 8 matches. Atlanta, unbeaten in their last nine (8 wins, 1 draw), is beginning to separate from the pack. Portland appears to be putting their bad start firmly in the rear view mirror with a 3 game winning streak (for only the 4th time in their MLS history), and Toronto, now able to focus solely on league play is beginning what they hope will be a long climb back up from the bottom of the table.

As always, a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:

The SFPI has two main Components, “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on-field results, and “Strength of Schedule” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.

PERFORMANCE SCORE

A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:

Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI

Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played

Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over entire season.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponents Points Per Game at Home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that amount of times. Weighted at less than 100%

For the purposes of ranking Strength of Schedule the number represents how hard a team’s schedule is in relation to the rest of the league. So 1 is the toughest and 23 is the easiest, same goes for Remaining Schedule: 1 is the toughest, 23 is the easiest.

Those combine to give a team’s TOTAL SCORE. Teams are then ranked in order of highest to lowest by Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.

This week’s big winner by position is Minnesota climbing 8 spots (although I think that is more of a reflection on the mediocrity of the middle of the pack more than the quality of the Loons, so let’s not get too carried away just yet). The biggest losers are the Galaxy, losers of three straight and with only 3 points in their last five, and Vancouver, also with only 3 points in their last 5, both falling 6 spots. By points Toronto was the biggest winner with a 1.568 score increase, while New England was the biggest loser shedding 1.6902 points off their score.

ONWARD!

1 Atlanta (22pts 7W-1L-1D) Score: 11.3859 (+0.322) Prev: 1 (NC) High 1 Low 1

Schedule: 17 (-2) Pace: 83 (Prev: 80) Remaining Schedule: 11 (+2)

Last Week: W 2-1 at Chicago. Next Week: vs (7) Sporting KC, at (2) Orlando

Consecutive Weeks at #1: 3

2 Orlando (19pts 6W-2L-1D) Score: 9.6371 (+0.1186) Prev: 3 (+1) High 2 Low 6

Schedule: 18 (-1) Pace: 71 (Prev: 68) Remaining Schedule: 4 (-1)

Last Week: W 3-1 vs RSL Next Week: vs (1) Atlanta

3 New York City FC (20pts 6W-2L-2D) Score: 9.4555 (-1.5682) Prev: 2 (-1) High 2 Low 3

Schedule: 4 (NC) Pace: 68 (Prev: 75) Remaining Schedule: 15 (+4)

Last Week: L 4-0 at New York RB Next Week: at (4) LAFC

4 LAFC (16pts 5W-2L-1D) Score: 9.4348 (+0.0516) Prev: 4 (NC) High 3 Low 4

Schedule: 19 (+2) Pace: 68 (Prev: 72) Remaining Schedule: 21 (-1)

Last Week: D 1-1 vs FC Dallas Next Week: vs (10) Minnesota, vs (3) New York City FC

5 New York RB (15pts 5W-3L-0D) Score: 8.5101 (+0.9157) Prev: 7 (+2) High 5 Low 12

Schedule: 14 (+5) Pace: 63 (Prev: 58) Remaining Schedule: 8 (-2)

Last Week: W 4-0 vs New York City FC Next Week: at (15) Colorado

6 Portland (11pts 3W-3L-2D) Score: 7.9207 (+0.8862) Prev: 9 (+3) High 6 Low 9

Schedule: 12 (-7) Pace: 46 (Prev: 38) Remaining Schedule: 23 (NC)

Last Week: W 1-0 at San Jose Next Week: vs (19) Seattle

7 Sporting KC (20pts 6W-2L-2D) Score: 7.8793 (-0.5616) Prev: 5 (-2) High 4 Low 7

Schedule: 22 (-2) Pace: 68 (Prev: 64) Remaining Schedule: 7 (+11)

Last Week: W 1-0 vs Colorado Next Week: at (1) Atlanta

8 FC Dallas (13pts 3W-1L-4D) Score: 7.3493 (+0.1125) Prev: 8 (NC) High 5 Low 8

Schedule: 13 (+1) Pace: 55 (Prev: 58) Remaining Schedule: 19 (-8)

Last Week: D 1-1 at LAFC Next Week: vs (16) LA Galaxy

9 New England (14pts 4W-3L-2D) Score: 6.4268 (-1.6902) Prev: 6 (-3) High 6 Low 9

Schedule: 15 (-3) Pace: 52 (Prev: 59) Remaining Schedule: 9 (+6)

Last Week: L 4-2 at Montreal Next Week: vs (21) Toronto

10 Minnesota (12pts 4W-5L-0D) Score: 5.767 (+1.2972) Prev: 18 (+8) High 10 Low 18

Schedule: 10 (-1) Pace: 45 (Prev: 38) Remaining Schedule: 14 (NC)

Last Week: W 1-0 vs Vancouver Next Week: at (4) LAFC, vs (22) San Jose

11 Houston (11pts 3W-3L-2D) Score: 5.4753 (+0.8626) Prev: 11 (+5) High 11 Low 16

Schedule: 20 (-2) Pace: 46 (Prev: 38) Remaining Schedule: 5 (+2)

Last Week: W 3-2 vs LA Galaxy Next Week: at (17) Vancouver

12 Chicago (8pts 2W-4L-2D) Score: 5.2768 (-0.0585) Prev: 13 (+1) High 12 Low 13

Schedule: 6 (+10) Pace: 34 (Prev: 38) Remaining Schedule: 12 (NC)

Last Week: L 2-1 vs Atlanta Next Week: vs (20) Montreal, at (18) Columbus

13 DC United (5pts 1W-4L-2D) Score: 5.0559 (+0.2464) Prev: 15 (+2) High 13 Low 15

Schedule: 2 (+1) Pace: 24 (Prev: 24) Remaining Schedule: 6 (-1)

Last Week: Bye Next Week: at (14) Real Salt Lake

14 Real Salt Lake (10pts 3W-5L-1D) Score: 4.9352 (-0.1794) Prev: 14 (NC) High 11 Low 14

Schedule: 7 (NC) Pace: 37 (Prev: 42) Remaining Schedule: 13 (-1)

Last Week: L 3-1 at Orlando Next Week: vs (13) DC United

15 Colorado (8pts 2W-4L-2D) Score: 4.8224 (-0.8851) Prev: 12 (-3) High 10 Low 15

Schedule: 9 (+2) Pace: 34 (Prev: 38) Remaining Schedule: 18 (-1)

Last Week: L 1-0 at Sporting KC Next Week: vs (5) New York RB

16 LA Galaxy (10pts 3W-5L-1D) Score: 4.7383 (-1.369) Prev: 10 (-6) High 9 Low 16

Schedule: 1 (NC) Pace: 37 (Prev: 42) Remaining Schedule: 17 (+4)

Last Week: L 3-2 at Houston Next Week: at (8) FC Dallas

17 Vancouver (13pts 4W-5L-1D) Score: 4.7335 (-1.0704) Prev: 11 (-6) High 11 Low 17

Schedule: 11 (-1) Pace: 44 (Prev: 49) Remaining Schedule: 22 (NC)

Last Week: L 1-0 at Minnesota Next Week: vs (11) Houston

18 Columbus (15pts 4W-3L-3D) Score: 4.5818 (+0.1087) Prev: 17 (-1) High 17 Low 20

Schedule: 23 (NC) Pace: 51 (Prev: 52) Remaining Schedule: 1 (NC)

Last Week: D 0-0 at Seattle Next Week: vs (23) Philadelphia, vs (12) Chicago

1
9 Seattle (5pts 1W-4L-2D) Score: 4.292 (+0.3011) Prev: 19 (NC) High 18 Low 19

Schedule: 3 (-1) Pace: 24 (Prev: 22) Remaining Schedule: 16 (-6)

Last Week: D 0-0 vs Columbus Next Week: at (21) Toronto, at (6) Portland

20 Montreal (9pts 3W-6L-0D) Score: 4.274 (+0.4252) Prev: 20 (NC) High 19 Low 20

Schedule: 8 (-2) Pace: 34 (Prev: 25) Remaining Schedule: 10 (-1)

Last Week: W 4-2 vs New England Next Week: at (12) Chicago, vs (23) Philadelphia

21 Toronto (7pts 2W-4L-1D) Score: 3.4184 (+1.568) Prev: 23 (+2) High 21 Low 23

Schedule: 21 (+1) Pace: 34 (Prev: 22) Remaining Schedule: 3 (-1)

Last Week: W 3-0 vs Philadelphia Next Week: vs (19) Seattle at (9) New England

22 San Jose (5pts 1W-5L-2D) Score: 3.1824 (-0.4901) Prev: 22 (NC) High 21 Low 22

Schedule: 5 (+3) Pace: 21 (Prev: 24) Remaining Schedule: 20 (-4)

Last Week: L 1-0 vs Portland Next Week: at (10) Minnesota

23 Philadelphia (8pts 2W-4L-2D) Score: 2.8799 (-0.8198) Prev: 21 (-2) High 21 Low 23

Schedule: 16 (-3) Pace: 34 (Prev: 38) Remaining Schedule: 2 (+2)

Last Week: L 3-0 at Toronto Next Week: at (18) Columbus, at (20) Montreal

PREDICTIONS

Last week the SFPI went 4-7 (36.36%) and is now 9-13 (40.91%) on the season. Hopefully a double game week will allow me to get back on track. Again, adding 1.75 points to the home team’s score, if the teams are then within 1.25 points of each other I will call it a draw.

Sporting KC at Atlanta: ATLANTA

Philadelphia at Columbus: COLUMBUS

Seattle at Toronto: DRAW

Montreal at Chicago: CHICAGO

Minnesota at LAFC: LAFC

Houston at Vancouver: DRAW

San Jose at Minnesota: MINNESOTA

Philadelphia at Montreal: MONTREAL

La Galaxy at FC Dallas: DALLAS

Chicago at Columbus: DRAW

Toronto at New England: NEW ENGLAND

New York RB at Colorado: NEW YORK

DC United at Real Salt Lake: RSL

Seattle at Portland: PORTLAND

Atlanta at Orlando: DRAW

New York City FC at LAFC: LAFC