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SFPI NWSL Power Rankings: Week ending June 10, 2018

International Break Edition

Nikita Taparia

No movement this week with only one game, due to the international break. Sky Blue FC earned its first home point of the year, and only its second point overall with a 0-0 draw at home against Washington to avoid slipping into negative territory. Everyone else was idle.

As always, here’s a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:

The SFPI has two main components: “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on-the-field results, and “Strength of Schedule,” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.

Performance Score

A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:

  • Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches, with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.
  • Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
  • Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over the entire season.

Strength of Schedule

As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponent’s Points Per Game at home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that number of times. Numbered 1-9, with 9 being the easiest, and weighted at less than 100%.

Strength of Schedule and Performance Score combine to give a team’s Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.

Features of Note

  • Remaining Schedule: Same as Strength of Schedule, only for games remaining.
  • Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also shows how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.
  • Record is in W-L-D format. *Denotes playoff position.
  • Parentheses indicate change from the previous week, with – indicating no change.

Rankings

1 *North Carolina Courage (30 pts, 9-0-3) Score: 11.4362 (+0.1116) Prev: 1 (–); High 1 Low 1

Schedule: 8 (–); Pace: 60 (LW 60); Remaining Schedule: 7 (-2)

Last Week: Bye

Next Week: vs (4) Utah

Weeks at 1: 5 (consecutive)

2 *Orlando Pride (16 pts, 4-3-4) Score: 8.3681 (+0.0359); Prev: 2 (–); High 2 Low 3

Schedule: 3 (+1); Pace: 34 (LW 34); Remaining Schedule: 8 (–)

Last Week: Bye

Next Week: vs (9) Sky Blue

3 *Seattle Reign (18 pts, 5-2-3) Score: 7.6298 (+0.1232); Prev: 3 (–); High 2 Low 3

Schedule: 9 (–); Pace: 43 (LW 43); Remaining Schedule: 1 (–)

Last Week: Bye

Next Week: at (8) Washington

4 Utah Royals (14 pts, 3-2-5) Score: 7.1127 (+0.0682); Prev: 4 (–); High 4 Low 5

Schedule: 7 (–); Pace: 33 (LW 33); Remaining Schedule: 5 (+1)

Last Week: Bye

Next Week: at (1) North Carolina

5 *Portland Thorns (15 pts, 4-4-3) Score: 6.5961 (+0.0737); Prev: 5 (–); High 4 Low 5

Schedule: 2 (–); Pace: 32 (LW 32); Remaining Schedule: 9 (–)

Last Week: Bye

Next Week: at (7) Chicago

6 Houston Dash (14 pts, 3-4-5) Score: 5.8877 (+0.0568); Prev: 6 (–); High 6 Low 8

Schedule: 4 (+1); Pace: 28 (LW 28); Remaining Schedule: 6 (+1)

Last Week: Bye

Next Week: Bye

7 Chicago Red Stars (15 pts, 3-3-6) Score: 5.4209 (+0.0876); Prev: 7 (–); High 6 Low 7

Schedule: 6 (–); Pace: 30 (LW 30); Remaining Schedule: 4 (–)

Last Week: Bye

Next Week: vs (5) Portland

8 Washington Spirit (9 pts, 2-7-3) Score: 2.8769 (+0.0875); Prev: 8 (–); High 6 Low 8

Schedule: 5 (-2); Pace: 18 (LW 17); Remaining Schedule: 3 (–)

Last Week: D 0-0 at Sky Blue

Next Week: vs (3) Seattle

9 Sky Blue FC (2 pts, 0-8-2) Score: 0.705 (-0.0164); Prev: 9 (–); High 9 Low 9

Schedule: 1 (–); Pace: 4 (LW 2); Remaining Schedule: 2 (–)

Last Week: D 0-0 vs Washington

Next Week; at (2) Orlando

Predictions

Last Week the SFPI went 0-1 (0%) as Sky Blue actually stood up and earned their second point of the year. Season total is now 8-9 (47.1%). 1.5 points are added to the home team’s score, with a draw called for teams within a point of each other.

Seattle at Washington: SEATTLE

Utah at North Carolina: NORTH CAROLINA

Sky Blue at Orlando: ORLANDO

Portland at Chicago: DRAW