SFPI NWSL 2018 Power Rankings Week Ending June 17, 2018

Well the undefeated streak is over! North Carolina finally fell to defeat, at home no less, to the Utah Royals. However, as a testament to how far ahead of the field they were, they remain as the #1 team. They should still cruise to the shield as they have an 11 point lead over Seattle (who has 2 games in hand) for 2nd and are 14 points ahead of Portland (who has 1 game in hand) for the final playoff berth.

As always, here’s a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:

The SFPI has two main components: “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on-the-field results, and “Strength of Schedule,” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.

Performance Score

A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:

• Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches, with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.
• Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
• Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over the entire season.

Strength of Schedule

As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponent’s Points Per Game at home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that number of times. Numbered 1-9, with 9 being the easiest, and weighted at less than 100%.

Strength of Schedule and Performance Score combine to give a team’s Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.

Features of Note

• Remaining Schedule: Same as Strength of Schedule, only for games remaining.
• Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also shows how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.
• Record is in W-L-D format. *Denotes playoff position.
• Parentheses indicate change from the previous week, with – indicating no change.

Rankings

1 *North Carolina Courage (30pts 9-1-3) Score: 9.9566 (-1.4796); Prev: 1 (-); High 1 Low 1

Schedule: 8 (-); Pace: 55 (LW 60); Remaining Schedule: 6 (+1)

Last Week: L 1-0 vs Utah; Next Week: at (4) Seattle

Weeks at #1: 6 (6 Consecutive)

2 *Orlando Pride (19pts 5-3-4) Score: 8.6176 (+0.2495); Prev: 2 (-2); High 2 Low 3

Schedule: 6 (-3); Pace: 37 (LW 34); Remaining Schedule: 7 (+1)

Last Week: W 3-2 vs Sky Blue; Next Week: at (8) Washington

3 *Utah Royals (17pts 4-2-5) Score: 8.202 (+1.0893); Prev: 4 (+1); High 3 Low 5

Schedule: 4 (+3); Pace: 37 (LW 33); Remaining Schedule: 8 (-3)

Last Week: W 1-0 at North Carolina; Next Week: at (7) Chicago

4 *Seattle Reign (19pts 5-2-4) Score: 6.9457 (-0.6841); Prev: 3 (-1); High 2 Low 4

Schedule: 9 (-); Pace: 41 (LW 43); Remaining Schedule: 1 (-)

Last Week: D 0-0 at Washington; Next Week: vs (1) North Carolina

5 Portland Thorns (16pts 4-4-4) Score: 6.551 (-0.0451); Prev: 5 (-2); High 4 Low 5

Schedule: 2 (-); Pace: 31 (LW 32); Remaining Schedule: 9 (-)

Last Week: D 1-1 at Chicago; Next Week: at (6) Houston

6 Houston Dash (14pts 3-4-5) Score: 5.767 (-0.12); Prev: 6 (-); High 6 Low 8

Schedule: 3 (+1); Pace: 28 (LW 28); Remaining Schedule: 5 (+1)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: vs (5) Portland

7 Chicago Red Stars (13pts 3-3-7) Score: 5.2613 (-0.1596); Prev: 7 (-); High 6 Low 7

Schedule: 7 (-1); Pace: 29 (LW 30); Remaining Schedule: 4 (-)

Last Week: D 1-1 vs Portland; Next Week: vs (3) Utah

8 Washington Spirit (10pts 2-7-4) Score: 3.0289 (+0.152); Prev: 8 (-); High 6 Low 8

Schedule: 5 (-); Pace: 18 (LW 18); Remaining Schedule: 2 (+1)

Last Week: D 0-0 vs Seattle; Next Week: vs (2) Orlando

9 Sky Blue FC (0-9-2) Score: 0.4827 (-0.2223); Prev: 9 (-); High 9 Low 9

Schedule: 1 (-); Pace: 4 (LW 4); Remaining Schedule: 3 (-1)

Last Week: L 3-2 at Orlando; Next Week: Bye

Predictions

Last Week the SFPI went 2-2 (50%) bringing the season total to 10-11 (47.62%). As before I will add 1.5 points to the home teams total score, then if the two teams are within 1 point of each other I will predict a draw.

Portland at Houston: DRAW

North Carolina at Seattle: NORTH CAROLINA

Orlando at Washington: ORLANDO

Utah at Chicago: UTAH