Well the undefeated streak is over! North Carolina finally fell to defeat, at home no less, to the Utah Royals. However, as a testament to how far ahead of the field they were, they remain as the #1 team. They should still cruise to the shield as they have an 11 point lead over Seattle (who has 2 games in hand) for 2nd and are 14 points ahead of Portland (who has 1 game in hand) for the final playoff berth.
As always, here’s a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:
The SFPI has two main components: “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on-the-field results, and “Strength of Schedule,” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.
A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:
- Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches, with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.
- Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
- Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over the entire season.
Strength of Schedule
As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponent’s Points Per Game at home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that number of times. Numbered 1-9, with 9 being the easiest, and weighted at less than 100%.
Strength of Schedule and Performance Score combine to give a team’s Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.
Features of Note
- Remaining Schedule: Same as Strength of Schedule, only for games remaining.
- Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also shows how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.
- Record is in W-L-D format. *Denotes playoff position.
- Parentheses indicate change from the previous week, with – indicating no change.
1 *North Carolina Courage (30pts 9-1-3) Score: 9.9566 (-1.4796); Prev: 1 (-); High 1 Low 1
Schedule: 8 (-); Pace: 55 (LW 60); Remaining Schedule: 6 (+1)
Last Week: L 1-0 vs Utah; Next Week: at (4) Seattle
Weeks at #1: 6 (6 Consecutive)
2 *Orlando Pride (19pts 5-3-4) Score: 8.6176 (+0.2495); Prev: 2 (-2); High 2 Low 3
Schedule: 6 (-3); Pace: 37 (LW 34); Remaining Schedule: 7 (+1)
Last Week: W 3-2 vs Sky Blue; Next Week: at (8) Washington
3 *Utah Royals (17pts 4-2-5) Score: 8.202 (+1.0893); Prev: 4 (+1); High 3 Low 5
Schedule: 4 (+3); Pace: 37 (LW 33); Remaining Schedule: 8 (-3)
Last Week: W 1-0 at North Carolina; Next Week: at (7) Chicago
4 *Seattle Reign (19pts 5-2-4) Score: 6.9457 (-0.6841); Prev: 3 (-1); High 2 Low 4
Schedule: 9 (-); Pace: 41 (LW 43); Remaining Schedule: 1 (-)
Last Week: D 0-0 at Washington; Next Week: vs (1) North Carolina
5 Portland Thorns (16pts 4-4-4) Score: 6.551 (-0.0451); Prev: 5 (-2); High 4 Low 5
Schedule: 2 (-); Pace: 31 (LW 32); Remaining Schedule: 9 (-)
Last Week: D 1-1 at Chicago; Next Week: at (6) Houston
6 Houston Dash (14pts 3-4-5) Score: 5.767 (-0.12); Prev: 6 (-); High 6 Low 8
Schedule: 3 (+1); Pace: 28 (LW 28); Remaining Schedule: 5 (+1)
Last Week: Bye; Next Week: vs (5) Portland
7 Chicago Red Stars (13pts 3-3-7) Score: 5.2613 (-0.1596); Prev: 7 (-); High 6 Low 7
Schedule: 7 (-1); Pace: 29 (LW 30); Remaining Schedule: 4 (-)
Last Week: D 1-1 vs Portland; Next Week: vs (3) Utah
8 Washington Spirit (10pts 2-7-4) Score: 3.0289 (+0.152); Prev: 8 (-); High 6 Low 8
Schedule: 5 (-); Pace: 18 (LW 18); Remaining Schedule: 2 (+1)
Last Week: D 0-0 vs Seattle; Next Week: vs (2) Orlando
9 Sky Blue FC (0-9-2) Score: 0.4827 (-0.2223); Prev: 9 (-); High 9 Low 9
Schedule: 1 (-); Pace: 4 (LW 4); Remaining Schedule: 3 (-1)
Last Week: L 3-2 at Orlando; Next Week: Bye
Last Week the SFPI went 2-2 (50%) bringing the season total to 10-11 (47.62%). As before I will add 1.5 points to the home teams total score, then if the two teams are within 1 point of each other I will predict a draw.
Portland at Houston: DRAW
North Carolina at Seattle: NORTH CAROLINA
Orlando at Washington: ORLANDO
Utah at Chicago: UTAH