SFPI 2018 MLS Power Rankings Week 16

We had our “World Cup Break” with only a handful of midweek games and then USOC matches, so not a lot of movement this week.

This weeks big winners by position were New England and Montreal, both climbing 2, while the big loser was Columbus who lost at Atlanta and watched a 9 game unbeaten streak suddenly turn into a 4 game winless streak, dropping 4 slots.

By points, Montreal (+1.0807) had the best week, while Columbus (-1.3088) had the worst week.

As always, here’s a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:

The SFPI has two main components: “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on-the-field results, and “Strength of Schedule,” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.

Performance Score

A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:

• Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches, with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.
• Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
• Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over the entire season.

Strength of Schedule

As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponent’s Points Per Game at home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that number of times. Numbered 1-23, with 23 being the easiest, and weighted at less than 100%.

Strength of Schedule and Performance Score combine to give a team’s Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.

Features of Note

• Remaining Schedule: Same as Strength of Schedule, only for games remaining.
• Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also shows how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.
• Record is in W-L-D format. *Denotes Above Red Line.
• Parentheses indicate change from the previous week, with – indicating no change.

Rankings

1 *FC Dallas (29pts 8-1-5) Score: 10.3025 (+0.0575); Prev: 1 (-); High 1 Low 9

Schedule: 14 (+1); Pace: 70 (LW 70); Remaining Schedule: 17 (-2)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: at (6) New York RB

Total Weeks at #1: 3 (3 Consecutive)

2 *Atlanta (33pts 10-3-3) Score: 9.967 (+0.7674); Prev: 3 (+1); High 1 Low 6

Schedule: 5 (+5); Pace: 70 (LW 68); Remaining Schedule: 22 (-1)

Last Week: W 2-0 at Columbus; Next Week: vs (7) Portland

Total Weeks at #1: 4

3 *New York City FC (28pts 8-3-4) Score: 9.3572 (+0.0696); Prev: 2 (-1); High 2 Low 4

Schedule: 4 (+1); Pace: 63 (LW 63); Remaining Schedule: 21 (+1)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: vs (17) Toronto

4 *Sporting KC (29pts 8-2-5) Score: 8.6855 (-0.0143); Prev: 4 (-); High 4 Low 7

Schedule: 23 (-); Pace: 65 (LW 65); Remaining Schedule: 10 (-3)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: vs (10) Houston

5 *LAFC (24pts 7-4-3) Score: 8.5006 (+0.0199); Prev: 6 (+1); High 2 Low 8

Schedule: 7 (+2); Pace: 58 (LW 58); Remaining Schedule: 19 (-1)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: vs (13) Columbus

6 *New York RB (26pts 8-4-2) Score: 8.4779 (-0.0097); Prev: 5 (-1); High 1 Low 12

Schedule: 19 (-2); Pace: 63 (LW 60); Remaining Schedule: 11 (+1)

Last Week: W 2-1 vs Seattle; Next Week: vs (1) FC Dallas

Total Weeks at #1: 2

7 *Portland (22pts 6-3-4) Score: 8.3472 (-0.0469); Prev: 7 (-); High 2 Low 9

Schedule: 21 (-2); Pace: 57 (LW 57); Remaining Schedule: 16 (-)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: at (2) Atlanta

8 LA Galaxy (20pts 6-7-2) Score: 7.5726 (+0.0746); Prev: 8 (-); High 8 Low 18

Schedule: 1 (-); Pace: 45 (LW 45); Remaining Schedule: 23 (-)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: Bye

9 *Vancouver (23pts 6-5-5) Score: 7.1135 (+0.024); Prev: 10 (+1); High 9 Low 19

Schedule: 11 (+2); Pace: 48 (LW 48); Remaining Schedule: 20 (-1)

Last Week: W 5-2 vs Orlando; Next Week: at (16) Philadelphia

10 Houston (21pts 6-5-3) Score: 6.9384 (+0.1954); Prev: 11 (+1); High 9 Low 16

Schedule: 20 (+1); Pace: 51 (LW 51); Remaining Schedule: 6 (-4)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: at (4) Sporting KC

11 *New England (24pts 6-4-6) Score: 6.3837 (+0.2186); Prev: 13 (+2); High 6 Low 13

Schedule: 10 (-2); Pace: 51 (LW 52); Remaining Schedule: 18 (+2)

Last Week: D 2-2 at San Jose; Next Week: Bye

12 *Salt Lake (22pts 7-7-1) Score: 6.225 (-0.0655); Prev: 12 (-); High 9 Low 18

Schedule: 13 (+1); Pace: 49 (LW 49); Remaining Schedule: 12 (-3)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: vs (22) San Jose

13 *Columbus (27pts 7-4-6) Score: 6.0717 (-1.3088); Prev: 9 (-4); High 5 Low 20

Schedule: 17 (+5); Pace: 53 (LW 57); Remaining Schedule: 9 (-4)

Last Week: L 2-0 vs Atlanta; Next Week: at (5) LAFC

14 DC United (10pts 2-6-4) Score: 5.3589 (+0.1434); Prev: 14 (-); High 10 Low 19

Schedule: 12 (-6); Pace: 28 (LW 27); Remaining Schedule: 5 (+5)

Last Week: D 4-4 at Toronto; Next Week: Bye

15 Chicago (19pts 5-7-4) Score: 4.6856 (+0.1566); Prev: 16 (+1); High 12 Low 20

Schedule: 16 (-5); Pace: 40 (LW 40); Remaining Schedule: 4 (+7)

Last Week: D 2-2 at Colorado; Next Week: at (20) Seattle

16 Philadelphia (18pts 5-7-3) Score: 4.5886 (+0.0152); Prev: 15 (-1); High 12 Low 23

Schedule 18 (-); Pace: 40 (LW 40); Remaining Schedule: 2 (+1)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: vs (9) Vancouver

17 Toronto (15pts 4-7-3) Score: 4.0866 (+0.0392); Prev: 18 (+1); High 17 Low 23

Schedule: 22 (-2); Pace: 36 (LW 36); Remaining Schedule: 3 (+5)

Last Week: D 4-4 vs DC United; Next Week: at (3) New York City FC

18 Minnesota (16pts 5-8-1) Score: 3.8129 (+0.0558); Prev: 19 (+1); High 10 Low 19

Schedule: 9 (+3); Pace: 38 (LW 38); Remaining Schedule: 7 (-4)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: at (23) Colorado

19 Montreal (15pts 5-11-0) Score: 3.8124 (+1.0807); Prev: 21 (+2); High 19 Low 23

Schedule: 6 (-2); Pace: 31 (LW 27); Remaining Schedule: 13 (+4)

Last Week: W 3-0 vs Orlando; Next Week: at (21) Orlando

20 Seattle (11pts 3-8-2) Score: 3.5994 (-0.8529); Prev: 17 (-3); High 11 Low 20

Schedule: 3 (-); Pace: 28 (LW 31); Remaining Schedule: 14 (-1)

Last Week: L 2-1 at New York RB; Next Week: vs (15) Chicago

21 *Orlando (19pts 6-8-1) Score: 2.696 (-0.2792); Prev: 20 (-1); High 2 Low 21

Schedule: 15 (+1); Pace: 43 (LW 46); Remaining Schedule: 1 (-)

Last Week: L 3-0 at Montreal; Next Week: vs (19) Montreal

22 San Jose (10pts 2-9-4) Score: 1.8762 (-0.1562); Prev: 22 (-); High 17 Low 22

Schedule: 8 (-1); Pace: 22 (LW 21); Remaining Schedule: 8 (-2)

Last Week: D 2-2 vs New England; Next Week: at (12) Real Salt Lake

23 Colorado (9pts 2-9-3) Score: 1.601 (+0.1148); Prev: 23 (-); High 10 Low 23

Schedule: 17 (+5); Pace: 21 (LW 22); Remaining Schedule: 15 (-1)

Last Week: D 2-2 vs Chicago; Next Week: vs (18) Minnesota

PREDICTIONS

Last Week the SFPI went 4-2 (66.67%) to bring the season total to 42-49 (46.15%). Going to keep with the same formula as that seems to be working well. 1.75 points added to home team score, if the scores are then within 1.5 points will predict a draw.

Vancouver at Philadelphia: DRAW

FC Dallas at New York RB: DRAW

Montreal at Orlando: DRAW

Houston at Sporting KC: KANSAS CITY

Minnesota at Colorado: DRAW

San Jose at Real Salt Lake: SALT LAKE

Chicago at Seattle: DRAW

Columbus at LAFC: LAFC

Portland at Atlanta: ATLANTA

Toronto at New York City: NEW YORK

In the next couple of weeks I anticipate the “Playoff Picture” and “Timbers Rooting Interest” to begin.