SFPI 2018 MLS Power Rankings Week 14

Week 14 is done, and now all MLS teams are in the midst of a double game week and calls to #CareLikeWeDo as they entered the US Open Cup! (Note: USOC results do not impact SFPI Rankings). This week saw a lot of movement as both FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake used 6 point weeks to make massive jumps up the rankings. Portland saw its 6 game winning streak morph into a 7 game unbeaten streak with a disappointing home draw to the Galaxy, Seattle continued to struggle, and has now been shut out more times (8) than they have goals scored (7) on the year. Orlando dropped its 4th straight (after a 6 game win streak) and Colorado dropped its 7th straight.

The biggest winner this week by position was Real Salt Lake, jumping 9 spots, while the biggest loser was Houston, falling 6. By score, Dallas was the biggest winner jumping an astounding 2.4472 points. The biggest loser was still Houston losing 1.3482 points following an 0-2 week.

As always a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:

The SFPI has two main Components, “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on the field results, and “Strength of Schedule” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.

PERFORMANCE SCORE

• A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:
• Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.
• Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
• Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over entire season.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponents Points Per Game at Home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that amount of times. Weighted at less than 100%.

Those combine to give a team’s TOTAL SCORE. Teams are then ranked in order of highest to lowest by Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.

FEATURES OF NOTE

• Strength of Schedule: How tough is a team’s schedule in relation to the rest of the league? numbered 1-23 with 1 being the hardest to date, and 23 being the easiest.
• Remaining Schedule: Same as above, only for games remaining. Also ranked 1-23 where 1 is hardest, 23 is easiest.
• Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also showing how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.

(Because these features were not included last week there will be no “Change” Feature on them this week, this shall resume next week)

(Record is W-L-D *Denotes above red line)

1 *FC Dallas (26pts 7-1-5) Score: 10.1708 (+2.4472); Prev: 8 (+7); High 1 Low 9

Schedule: 16; Pace: 68; Remaining Schedule: 17

Last Week: W 3-2 at LA Galaxy, W 2-1 vs LAFC; Next Week: vs (22) Montreal

Total Weeks at #1: 1 (1 Consecutive)

2 *New York City FC (27pts 8-3-3) Score: 9.3714 (+0.0651); Prev: 4 (+2); High 2 Low 4

Schedule: 5; Pace: 65; Remaining Schedule: 22

Last Week: W 3-0 vs Orlando; Next Week: vs (6) Atlanta

3 *New York RB (22pts 7-4-1) Score: 9.1536 (-1.2306); Prev: 1 (-2); High 1 Low 12

Schedule: 19; Pace: 62; Remaining Schedule: 8

Last Week: L 2-1 at New England; Next Week: at (7) Columbus

Total Weeks at #1: 2

4 *Sporting KC (28pts 8-2-4) Score: 9.0988 (+0.8909); Prev: 7 (+3); High 4 Low 7

Schedule: 23; Pace: 68; Remaining Schedule: 4

Last Week: W 4-1 vs Minnesota; Next Week: at (5) Portland

5 *Portland (21pts 6-3-3) Score: 8.9363 (-1.2011); Prev: 2 (-3); High 2 Low 9

Schedule: 21; Pace: 59; Remaining Schedule: 14

Last Week: D 1-1 vs LA Galaxy; Next Week: vs (4) Sporting KC

6 *Atlanta (29pts 9-3-2) Score: 8.8134 (-0.555); Prev: 3 (-3); High 1 Low 6

Schedule: 12; Pace: 70; Remaining Schedule: 18

Last Week: D 1-1 at New England, W 3-1 vs Philadelphia; Next Week: at (2) New York City FC

Total Weeks at #1: 4

7 *Columbus (26pts 7-3-5) Score: 8.1741 (-0.1919); Prev: 5 (-2); High 5 Low 20

Schedule: 22; Pace: 58; Remaining Schedule: 1

Last Week: D 3-3 vs Toronto; Next Week: vs (3) New York RB

8 *LAFC (21pts 6-4-3) Score: 7.9998 (-0.2537); Prev: 6 (-2); High 2 Low 8

Schedule: 7; Pace: 54; Remaining Schedule: 21

Last Week: L 2-1 at FC Dallas; Next Week: at (20) San Jose

9 *Real Salt Lake (22pts 6-4-4) Score: 7.3066 (+2.2727); Prev: 18 (+9); High 9 Low 18

Schedule: 17; Pace: 53; Remaining Schedule: 10

Last Week: W 2-1 vs Houston, W 2-0 vs Seattle; Next Week: at (13) LA Galaxy

10 DC United (9pts 2-5-3) Score: 6.8951 (+0.0174); Prev: 10 (NC); High 10 Low 19

Schedule: 3; Pace: 30; Remaining Schedule: 16

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: at (19) Seattle

11 *New England (22pts 6-4-4) Score: 6.8141 (+0.8003); Prev: 12 (+1); High 6 Low 12

Schedule: 6; Pace: 53; Remaining Schedule: 20

Last Week: D 1-1 vs Atlanta, W 2-1 vs New York RB; Next Week: at (16) Chicago

12 Philadelphia (18pts 5-6-3) Score: 6.5365 (+1.1062); Prev: 15 (+3); High 12 Low 23

Schedule: 15; Pace: 43; Remaining Schedule: 9

Last Week: W 3-1 vs Chicago, L 3-1 at Atlanta; Next Week: vs (21) Toronto

13 LA Galaxy (17pts 5-7-2) Score: 6.4304 (+0.1173); Prev: 11 (-2); High 9 Low 18

Schedule: 1; Pace: 41; Remaining Schedule: 23

Last Week: L 3-2 vs FC Dallas, D 1-1 at Portland; Next Week: vs (9) Real Salt Lake

14 *Vancouver (20pts 5-5-5) Score: 6.4231 (+1.4979); Prev: 19 (+5); High 11 Low 19

Schedule: 10; Pace: 45; Remaining Schedule: 19

Last Week: W 2-1 at Colorado; Next Week: vs (17) Orlando

15 Houston (18pts 5-5-3) Score: 6.1378 (-1.3482); Prev: 9 (-6); High 9 Low 16

Schedule: 20; Pace: 47; Remaining Schedule: 3

Last Week: L 2-1 at Real Salt Lake, L 1-0 at Montreal; Next Week: vs (23) Colorado

16 Chicago (17pts 5-7-2) Score: 4.6049 (-0.5393); Prev: 16 (NC); High 12 Low 20

Schedule: 9; Pace: 41; Remaining Schedule: 12

Last Week: L 3-1 at Philadelphia, W 2-1 vs San Jose; Next Week: vs (11) New England

17 *Orlando (19pts 6-6-1) Score: 4.3825 (-1.221); Prev: 13 (-4); High 2 Low 17

Schedule: 13; Pace: 49; Remaining Schedule: 2

Last Week: L 3-0 at New York City FC; Next Week: at (14) Vancouver

18 Minnesota (16pts 5-8-1) Score: 3.9233 (-1.1456); Prev: 17 (-1); High 10 Low 18

Schedule: 11; Pace: 38; Remaining Schedule: 7

Last Week: L 4-1 at Sporting KC; Next Week: Bye

19 Seattle (8pts 2-7-2) Score: 3.7728 (N/A**); Prev 14 (-5); High 11 Low 19

Schedule: 4; Pace: 24; Remaining Schedule: 13

Last Week: L 2-0 at Real Salt Lake; Next Week: vs (10) DC United

20 San Jose (9pts 2-8-3) Score: 3.588 (-0.3751); Prev: 19 (-1); High 17 Low 22

Schedule: 8; Pace: 23; Remaining Schedule: 11

Last Week: L 2-1 at Chicago; Next Week: vs (8) LAFC

21 Toronto (11pts 3-7-2) Score: 2.5816 (-0.1084); Prev: 21 (NC); High 21 Low 23

Schedule: 18; Pace: 31; Remaining Schedule: 5

Last Week: D 3-3 at Columbus; Next Week: at (12) Philadelphia

22 Montreal (12pts 4-10-0) Score: 2.4883 (+0.1729); Prev: 22 (NC); High 19 Low 23

Schedule: 14; Pace: 29; Remaining Schedule: 6

Last Week: W 1-0 vs Houston; Next Week: at (1) FC Dallas

23 Colorado (8pts 2-8-2) Score: 1.8861 (-0.3887); Prev: 23 (NC); High 10 Low 23

Schedule: 2; Pace: 22; Remaining Schedule: 15

Last Week: L 2-1 vs Vancouver; Next Week: at (15) Houston

**Seattle’s score last week was incorrect, so can not accurately measure change.

PREDICTIONS

Last Week the SFPI went 6-9 (40%) to bring season total to 32-43 (42.67%). Prediction formula remaings the same.

Toronto at Philadelphia: PHILADELPHIA

Atlanta at New York City FC: NEW YORK

New York RB at Columbus: DRAW

Orlando at Vancouver: VANCOUVER

Montreal at FC Dallas: DALLAS

New England at Chicago: DRAW

Colorado at Houston: HOUSTON

DC United at Seattle: DRAW

Real Salt Lake at LA Galaxy: DRAW

Sporting KC at Portland: PORTLAND

LAFC at San Jose: LAFC