Rose City Forecast 13: Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City

Welcome back to the (unlucky?) 13th iteration of the 2018 Portland Timbers Prediction Thread!

Alas, last week saw the end of the Timbers’ winning streak; after drawing against the LA Galaxy at home, it’s merely a seven game unbeaten run. Without the dos Santos brothers and Ola Kamara - and with Zlatan Ibrahimovic starting on the bench - LA actually managed to look like a team and maintain shape defensively. The side from Carson got on the board first, through a great turn and finish by starting forward Chris Pontius. The Timbers came back for the draw after Andres Flores was run over in the Galaxy box, drawing a deserved PK. Diego Valeri finished with aplomb. The game featured only two yellows, one for each side, with Diego Chara earning the first, which means he’ll be suspended next game.

As the only one to guess the 1-1 scoreline, LampsTheLegend takes home the prediction of the week. lefthanded49 earns the crazy points by suggesting that the Timbers would accomplish what few other teams have so far this year: bringing quality out of the LA Galaxy. It’s too bad that was correct.

Catching up from the previous game, hoser!hoser! had the top prediction for guessing a Timbers win and a couple of the goals, with the appropriate assist on one of them. MindfulCyclist had the silly points for suggesting that when the Timbers needed a late goal to win, they would put Andres Flores and Dairon Asprilla in Jack Jewsbury and Ishmael Yartey kits to bring out the mojo of the only other win the Timbers managed in Colorado.

A perfect score from the Colorado game would have earned 25 points:

3-2 Timbers

Samuel Armenteros (Sebastian Blanco); Armenteros (unassisted); Diego Valeri (Blanco)

Julio Cascante (OG); Yannick Boli (PK)

First yellow to Shkelzan Gashi

Over on cards

A perfect score for the LA game would have earned 16 points:

Chris Pontius (Emmanuel Boateng)

Diego Valeri (PK)

Diego Chara with the first yellow

Under on cards

This weekend, in their last league game before the World Cup, the Timbers face foes Sporting Kansas City in the friendly confines of Providence Park. As you may be aware, SKC is averaging two points per game and has the highest goal differential (+14) in the league. And they’ve only lost once on the road. Meanwhile, the Timbers are riding their seven game unbeaten run, but that could be in jeopardy since Diego Chara is out due to yellow card accumulation. David Guzman is off on international duty, as is Andy Polo. That leaves quite the hole in midfield, left to be filled by one of Andres Flores, Eryk Williamson, or Lawrence Olum, depending on how Giovanni Savarese decides to line up his team. Will the Timbers be able to overcome the absence of their MLS talisman?

Total Cards O/U: 5.5

The Scoring Format:

• Correct score: 5 points
• Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points
• Each clean sheet: 2 points
• Each goal-scorer: 1 point
• Each FK/PK/assist/lack of assist: 1 point
• Goal/assist bonus: 1 point
• Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point
• Each player with a red card: 1 point (Cannot earn points for predicting 0 red cards, but you may predict up to 3 players with a red.)
• Over/under on total cards: 1 point
• Most outrageous(ly accurate) prediction: 2 points

Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications (the fine print):

You may amend your prediction at any point up to kick off to account for game day 18 announcements. I recommend at least getting an initial prediction sooner, just in case you forget to come back in that hour or two before the game.

Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. Basically, if you’re predicting lots of goals all the time to just earn points on goals and assists and ignoring the score, I feel that goes against the spirit of this thread. This hasn’t been at all a problem in the last two years, so let’s keep it that way!

The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you correctly get the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal. (e.g., if Nagbe scores, assisted by Valeri, and you predicted that exact combination you get a total of three points - 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 bonus. However, if you predicted Nagbe scores assisted by Adi and Adi scores assisted by Valeri, you would get two points from the Nagbe/Valeri prediction - 1 goal, 1 assist)

Please be clear whether you think a goal will be unassisted, assisted, or from a PK/FK. Unassisted = no assist, run of play; Assisted = player who got the assist; PK/FK = directly from a free kick. For the purposes of this thread, a PK counts as a FK, and a FK as a PK. If you just leave the assist section blank, I will assume you’re declining to make an assist prediction.

Even though a player can be awarded a secondary assist by OPTA, I will award a maximum of one assist point per goal. But that point can come from either the primary or secondary assist in the box score. However, please keep your predictions to one assist per goal.

For the over/under on cards, a second yellow leading to a red counts as two cards, not three.

You may predict more than one red card if you’re expecting a chippy match, but only up to three total.

For the most outrageous(ly accurate) prediction, I will be trying to toe a line between completely absurd and mundane in my choices. As I see it, the goal here is to add even more fun without going too over-the-top ridiculous. So, in my mind, the best predictions will be something that could conceivably happen, but don’t happen often, like amusing coaching spats or goals that bounce off the crossbar, then off the keeper’s back, and then in. Things like that.

If you’re looking for where I set the over/under on total cards, check the end of the preview paragraph after the standings.

Format:

In the comment title, post your predicted score with the winners, eg: 4-2 Timbers

In the body of your comment, start with the goals and assists, like so:

Nagbe (Valeri)

Valeri (Free kick)

Adi (PK)

Blanco (Unassisted)

Beckham (Free kick)

Donovan (Beckham)

Next, choose your first yellow card, and that means picking only one person.

First yellow to Nigel De Jong

Then reds, if any. (NOTE: no points awarded for correctly calling a red-card-free match, so take a guess.)

Nigel De Jong gets a red card for stomping Blanco.

Clearly note whether you’re predicting over or under on total cards. Don’t leave me to try and figure it out!

And lastly, make your fun prediction.

Nigel de Jong tries to stomp Nagbe’s ankle again, but this time, Nagbe avoids the tackle. Being angry Nagbe for the first time in three years, he kicks the ball straight into NDJ’s groin. Camera pans to a trademark Chara smile.

As always, any questions about anything?