SFPI 2018 MLS Power Rankings: Week 21

Another week done and dusted. Portland extended their league unbeaten streak to 13, a short handed LAFC got smacked by Minnesota, who had a 6 point week, and Seattle kept their Cascadia Cup hopes alive with a 2-0 win vs Vancouver.

Minnesota was this weeks biggest winner both by points and position, jumping 7 spots and gaining 2.257 points. The big losers were LAFC and Chicago dropping 4 spots, while LAFC lost 1.1053 points to have the largest drop in score.

As always, here’s a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:

The SFPI has two main components: “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on-the-field results, and “Strength of Schedule,” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.

Performance Score

A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:

• Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches, with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.
• Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
• Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over the entire season.

Strength of Schedule

As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponent’s Points Per Game at home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that number of times. Numbered 1-23, with 23 being the easiest, and weighted at less than 100%.

Strength of Schedule and Performance Score combine to give a team’s Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.

Features of Note

• Remaining Schedule: Same as Strength of Schedule, only for games remaining.
• Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also shows how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.
• Record is in W-L-D format. *Denotes Above Red Line.
• Parentheses indicate change from the previous week, with – indicating no change.

Rankings

1 *New York RB (38pts 12-5-2) Score: 10.9253 (+0.782); Prev: 3 (+2); High 1 Low 12

Schedule: 10 (-); Pace: 68 (LW 64); Remaining Schedule: 17 (-)

Last Week: W 2-0 vs New England; Next Week: at (12) DC, vs (14) Columbus

Total Weeks at #1: 3 (1 Consecutive)

2 *Atlanta (44pts 13-4-5) Score: 10.7159 (+0.6197); Prev: 4 (+2); High 1 Low 6

Schedule: 6 (-2); Pace: 68 (LW 66); Remaining Schedule: 23 (-)

Last Week: W 3-1 vs DC; Next Week: at (9) Montreal

Total Weeks at #1: 5

3 *New York City (40pts 12-4-4) Score: 10.5687 (+0.4254); Prev: 2 (-1); High 2 Low 6

Schedule: 9 (-1); Pace: 68 (LW 68); Remaining Schedule: 22 (-)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: at (20) Orlando, at (15) Seattle

4 *Dallas (30pts 11-3-6) Score: 10.1664 (+0.379); Prev: 5 (+1); High 1 Low 9

Schedule: 4 (-1); Pace: 66 (LW 68); Remaining Schedule: 21 (-1)

Last Week: D 1-1 at Houston; Next Week: at (8) Kansas CIty

Total Weeks at #1: 3

5 *LAFC (35pts 10-5-5) Score: 9.74 (-1.1053); Prev: 1 (-4); High 1 Low 8

Schedule: 3 (+2); Pace: 59 (LW 62); Remaining Schedule: 18 (+1)

Last Week: L 5-1 at Minnesota; Next Week: vs (7) LA Galaxy

Total Weeks at #1: 2

6 *Portland (31pts 8-3-7) Score: 9.1678 (-0.2086); Prev: 6 (-); High 2 Low 9

Schedule: 8 (-1); Pace: 58 (LW 59); Remaining Schedule: 19 (-1)

Last Week: D 2-2 vs Montreal; Next Week: vs (10) Houston

7 *LA Galaxy (31pts 9-7-4) Score: 8.5682 (+0.4397); Prev: 7 (-); High 7 Low 18

Schedule: 2 (-1); Pace: 52 (LW 50); Remaining Schedule: 20 (+1)

Last Week: W 3-1 at Philadelphia; Next Week: at (5) LAFC, vs (20) Orlando

8 *Kansas City (33pts 9-5-6) Score: 6.8739 (+0.173); Prev: 8 (-); High 4 Low 8

Schedule: 18 (+3); Pace: 56 (LW 56); Remaining Schedule: 12 (-4)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: at (4) Dallas

9 *Montreal (28pts 9-12-1) Score: 6.1459 (-0.2812); Prev: 10 (+1); High 9 Low 23

Schedule: 14 (+2); Pace: 43 (LW 43); Remaining Schedule: 14 (+1)

Last Week: D 2-2 at Portland; Next Week: vs (2) Atlanta

10 Houston (27pts 7-6-6) Score: 6.0824 (-0.614); Prev: 9 (-1); High 9 Low 16

Schedule: 19 (+4); Pace: 50 (LW 51); Remaining Schedule: 8 (-4)

Last Week: D 1-1 vs Dallas; Next Week: vs (18) Philadelphia, at (6) Portland

11 Minnesota (28pts 9-11-1) Score: 6.0615 (+2.257); Prev: 18 (+7); High 10 Low 20

Schedule: 16 (-4); Pace: 45 (LW 39); Remaining Schedule: 11 (-6)

Last Week: W 2-1 vs New England, W 5-1 vs LAFC

Next Week: at (17) Vancouver

12 DC (14pts 3-8-5) Score: 5.6336 (+0.1145); Prev: 12 (-); High 10 Low 19

Schedule: 11 (+8); Pace: 29 (LW 31); Remaining Schedule: 10 (-7)

Last Week: L 3-1 at Atlanta; Next Week: vs (1) New York RB, vs (22) Colorado

13 *Salt Lake (30pts 9-9-3) Score: 5.5891 (-0.1682); Prev: 11 (-2); High 9 Low 18

Schedule: 17 (-3); Pace: 48 (LW 49); Remaining Schedule: 3 (-1)

Last Week: D 2-2 vs Colorado; Next Week: at (21) San Jose

14 *Columbus (33pts 9-7-6) Score: 5.5854 (+0.8408); Prev: 15 (+1); High 5 Low 20

Schedule: 22 (-5); Pace: 51 (LW 48); Remaining Schedule: 7 (+4)

Last Week: W 3-2 vs Orlando; Next Week: at (1) New York RB

15 Seattle (20pts 5-9-5) Score: 5.4961 (+0.7528); Prev: 16 (+1); High 11 Low 20

Schedule: 1 (+1); Pace: 35 (LW 32); Remaining Schedule: 16 (-)

Last Week: W 2-0 vs Vancouver; Next Week: at (21) San Jose

16 *New England (28pts 7-7-7) Score: 4.6107 (-0.633); Prev: 13 (-3); High 6 Low 16

Schedule: 7 (+6); Pace: 45 (LW 50); Remaining Schedule: 15 (-1)

Last Week: L 2-1 at Minnesota, L 2-0 at New York RB; Next Week: Bye

17 Vancouver (26pts 7-9-5) Score: 3.9801 (-1.1318); Prev: 14 (-3); High 9 Low 19

Schedule: 21 (-3); Pace: 42 (LW 44); Remaining Schedule: 4 (+6)

Last Week: L 2-0 at Seattle; Next Week: vs (11) Minnesota

18 Philadelphia (24pts 7-10-3) Score: 3.9709 (-0.5042); Prev: 17 (-1); High 12 Low 23

Schedule: 20 (-10); Pace: 40 (LW 42); Remaining Schedule: 6 (-)

Last Week: L 3-1 vs LA Galaxy; Next Week: at (10) Houston

19 Toronto (19pts 5-11-4) Score: 3.0766 (+1.4967); Prev: 23 (+4); High 17 Low 23

Schedule: 23 (-3); Pace: 32 (LW 28); Remaining Schedule: 1 (-)

Last Week: W 2-1 at Chicago; Next Week: vs (23) Chicago

20 Orlando (22pts 7-12-1) Score: 2.7131 (-0.0509); Prev: 21 (+1); High 2 Low 23

Schedule: 13 (-2); Pace: 37 (LW 39); Remaining Schedule: 5 (+2)

Last Week: L 3-2 at Columbus; Next Week: vs (3) New York City, at (7) LA Galaxy

21 San Jose (12pts 2-11-6) Score: 2.4467 (+0.003); Prev: 22 (+1); High 17 Low 22

Schedule: 5 (+1); Pace: 21 (LW 21); Remaining Schedule: 13 (-1)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: vs (15) Seattle, vs (13) Salt Lake

22 Colorado (17pts 4-11-5) Score: 2.3744 (-0.4693); Prev: 20 (-2); High 10 Low 23

Schedule: 12 (-3); Pace: 28 (LW 28); Remaining Schedule: 2 (+7)

Last Week: D 2-2 at Salt Lake; Next Week: at (12) DC

23 Chicago (23pts 6-11-6) Score: 2.3108 (-0.8286); Prev: 19 (-4); High 12 Low 23

Schedule: 15 (-); Pace: 35 (LW 37); Remaining Schedule: 9 (+4)

Last Week: L 2-1 vs Toronto; Next Week: at (19) Toronto

Predictions

Last week the SFPI went 5-6 (45.45%) to bring the season total to 66-76 (46.48%) As always, add 1.75 to the home team score, then if both teams are within 1.5 points predict a draw.

New York RB at DC: NEW YORK

Philadelphia at Houston: HOUSTON

Seattle at San Jose: DRAW

New York City at Orlando: NEW YORK

La Galaxy at LAFC: LAFC

Atlanta at Montreal: ATLANTA

Columbus at New York RB: NEW YORK

Chicago at Toronto: TORONTO

Colorado at DC: DC

Dallas at Kansas City: DALLAS

Minnesota at Vancouver: DRAW

Salt Lake at San Jose: DRAW

Houston at Portland: PORTLAND

New York City at Seattle: NEW YORK

Orlando at LA Galaxy: LA

Playoff Picture

If my predictions are 100% correct what will the tables look like?

EAST

1 Atlanta 47

2 New York City 46

3 New York RB 42

4 Columbus 33

5 Montreal 28

6 New England 28

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7 Philadelphia 24

8 Chicago 23

9 Orlando 22

10 Toronto 22

11 DC 17

WEST

1 Dallas 42

2 LAFC 38

3 LA Galaxy 34

4 Portland 34

5 Kansas City 33

6 Salt Lake 31

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7 Houston 30

8 Minnesota 29

9 Vancouver 27

10 Seattle 21

11 Colorado 17

12 San Jose 14