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SFPI MLS Power Rankings Week 18

Special Two for One #MURICA Edition

MLS: Montreal Impact at FC Dallas Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

As real life events interfered with getting the rankings out last week this week will be a special two for one ranking!

The Timbers extended their league-leading 10 game unbeaten streak (12 across all competitions) with a solid defensive performance at Supporters Shield leading Atlanta, then their first ever regular season win at CenturyLink Field where Larrys Mabiala scored more goals in one half than Clint Dempsey has scored all year. Orlando has dropped eight straight which is the longest active streak this year and ties Colorado for the longest so far this year. It is also tied for the 6th longest losing streak in MLS History (longest is 12 set by New York Red Bull in 1999, the longest since ties were allowed is 10 by RSL set in 2005). With it, they completed the fall from 2nd in the rankings to dead last.

The biggest winner over these last two weeks is Montreal leaping nine spots, as they have suddenly won three straight and four out of their last five. The biggest losers were RSL, Vancouver, and Toronto all dropping four spots. By points, Montreal gained 2.7103 points to take the big winner position, Vancouver was the big loser dropping 1.5451 points.

As always, here’s a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:

The SFPI has two main components: “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on-the-field results, and “Strength of Schedule,” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.

Performance Score

A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:

  • Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches, with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.
  • Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
  • Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over the entire season.


Strength of Schedule

As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponent’s Points Per Game at home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that number of times. Numbered 1-23, with 23 being the easiest, and weighted at less than 100%.

Strength of Schedule and Performance Score combine to give a team’s Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.


Features of Note

  • Remaining Schedule: Same as Strength of Schedule, only for games remaining.
  • Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also shows how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.
  • Record is in W-L-D format. *Denotes Above Red Line.
  • Parentheses indicate change from the previous week, with – indicating no change.


Rankings

1 *Atlanta (37pts 11-3-4) Score: 10.7639 (+0.7969); Prev: 2 (+1); High 1 Low 6

Schedule: 7 (-2); Pace: 69 (LW 70); Remaining Schedule: 22 (-)

Last Week: D 1-1 vs Portland, W 4-0 vs Orlando

Next Week: at (2) Dallas, at (17) Philadelphia

Total Weeks at #1: 5 (1 Consecutive)


2 *Dallas (32pts 9-2-5) Score: 10.5214 (+0.2189); Prev: 1 (-1); High 1 Low 9

Schedule: 8 (+6); Pace: 68 (LW 70); Remaining Schedule: 20 (-3)

Last Week: L 3-0 at New York RB, W 1-0 at Minnesota

Next Week: vs (1) Atlanta, at (16) Salt Lake

Total Weeks at #1: 3


3 *LAFC (30pts 9-4-3) Score: 10.3024 (+1.8018); Prev: 5 (+2); High 2 Low 8

Schedule: 10 (-3); Pace: 63 (LW 58); Remaining Schedule: 19 (-)

Last Week: W 2-0 vs Columbus, W 4-1 vs Philadelphia

Next Week: at (10) Houston, vs (23) Orlando


4 *New York RB (32pts 10-4-2) Score: 10.1199 (+1.642); Prev: 6 (+2): High 1 Low 12

Schedule: 20 (-1); Pace: 68 (LW 63); Remaining Schedule: 12 (-1)

Last Week: W 3-0 vs Dallas, W 1-0 at Toronto; Next Week: at (6) New York City

Total Weeks at #1: 2


5 *Portland (26pts 7-3-5) Score: 8.8886 (+0.5414); Prev: 7 (+2); High 2 Low 9

Schedule: 15 (+6); Pace: 58 (LW 57); Remaining Schedule: 18 (-2)

Last Week: D 1-1 at Atlanta, W 3-2 at Seattle; Next Week: vs (22) San Jose


6 *New York City (31pts 9-4-4) Score: 8.7902 (-0.567); Prev: 3 (-3); High 2 Low 6

Schedule: 5 (-1); Pace: 61 (LW 63); Remaining Schedule: 21 (-)

Last Week: W 2-1 vs Toronto, L 3-2 at Chicago; Next Week: vs (4) New York RB


7 *Kansas City (32pts 9-3-5) Score: 8.4541 (-0.2314); Prev: 4 (-3); High 4 Low 7

Schedule: 22 (+1); Pace: 64 (LW 65); Remaining Schedule: 11 (-1)

Last Week: W 3-2 vs Houston, L 2-0 at Montreal

Next Week: at (16) Salt Lake, vs (21) Toronto


8 *New England (27pts 7-4-6) Score: 7.3312 (+0.9475); Prev: 11 (+3); High 6 Low 13

Schedule: 6 (+4); Pace; 53 (LW 51); Remaining Schedule: 16 (+2)

Last Week: W 3-2 vs DC; Next Week: vs (20) Seattle


9 LA Galaxy (21pts 6-7-3) Score: 6.9398 (-0.6328); Prev: 8 (-1); HIgh 8 Low 18

Schedule: 1 (-); Pace: 44 (LW 45); Remaining Schedule: 23 (-)

Last Week: D 3-3 at San Jose; Next Week: vs (15) DC, vs (12) Columbus


10 Montreal (21pts 7-11-0) Score: 6.5227 (+2.7103); Prev: 19 (+9); High 10 Low 19

Schedule: 9 (-3); Pace: 39 (LW 31); Remaining Schedule: 14 (-1)

Last Week: W 2-0 at Orlando, W 2-0 vs Kansas City; Next Week: vs (18) Colorado


11 Houston (21pts 6-6-3) Score: 6.0859 (-0.8525) Prev: 10 (-1); High 9 Low 16

Schedule: 21 (-1); Pace: 47 (LW 51); Remaining Schedule: 9 (-3)

Last Week: L 3-2 at Kansas City; Next Week: vs (3) LAFC, vs (19) Minnesota


12 *Columbus (30pts 8-5-6) Score: 5.9446 (-0.1271); Prev: 13 (+1); High 5 Low 20

Schedule: 16 (+1); Pace: 53 (LW 53); Remaining Schedule: 8 (+1)

Last Week: L 2-0 at LAFC, W 2-1 vs Salt Lake; Next Week: at (9) LA Galaxy


13 *Vancouver (23pts 6-7-5) Score: 5.5684 (-1.5451); Prev: 9 (-4); High 9 Low 19

Schedule: 14 (-3); Pace: 43 (LW 48); Remaining Schedule: 13 (+7)

Last Week: L 4-0 at Philadelphia, L 1-0 vs Colorado; Next Week: vs (14) Chicago


14 *Chicago (23pts 6-7-5) Score: 5.4217 (+0.7361); Prev: 15 (+1); High 12 Low 20

Schedule: 19 (-3); Pace: 43 (LW 40); Remaining Schedule: 7 (-3)

Last Week: D 1-1 at Seattle, W 3-2 vs New York City; Next Week: at (13) Vancouver


15 DC (10pts 2-7-4) Score: 5.1553 (-0.2036); Prev: 14 (-1); High 10 Low 19

Schedule: 18 (-6); Pace: 26 (LW 28); Remaining Schedule: 3 (+2)

Last Week: L 3-2 at New England; Next Week: at (9) LA Galaxy


16 *Salt Lake (23pts 7-8-2) Score: 5.1084 (-1.1166); Prev: 12 (-4); High 9 Low 18

Schedule: 23 (-10); Pace: 45 (LW 49); Remaining Schedule: 1 (+11)

Last Week: D 1-1 vs San Jose, L 2-1 at Columbus

Next Week: vs (7) Kansas City, at (2) Dallas


17 Philadelphia (21pts 6-8-3) Score: 4.8122 (+0.2236); Prev: 16 (-1); High 12 Low 23

Schedule: 12 (+6); Pace: 42 (LW 40); Remaining Schedule: 6 (-4)

Last Week: W 4-0 vs Vancouver, L 4-1 at LAFC; Next Week: vs (1) Atlanta


18 Colorado (15pts 4-9-3) Score: 3.9093 (+2.3083); Prev: 23 (+5); High 10 Low 23

Schedule: 4 (-2); Pace: 31 (LW 21); Remaining Schedule: 15 (-)

Last Week: W 3-2 vs Minnesota, W 1-0 at Vancouver

Next Week: vs (20) Seattle, at (10) Montreal


19 Minnesota (16pts 5-10-1) Score: 3.389 (-0.4239); Prev: 18 (-1); High 10 Low 19

Schedule: 3 (+6); Pace: 34 (LW 38); Remaining Schedule: 10 (-3)

Last Week: L 3-2 at Colorado, L 1-0 vs Dallas

Next Week: vs (21) Toronto, at (11) Houston


20 Seattle (12pts 3-9-3) Score: 3.3719 (-0.2275); Prev: 20 (-); High 11 Low 20

Schedule: 2 (+1); Pace 27 (LW 28); Remaining Schedule: 17 (-3)

Last Week: D 1-1 vs Chicago, L 3-2 vs Portland

Next Week: at (18) Colorado, at (8) New England


21 Toronto (15pts 4-9-3) Score: 2.9822 (-1.1044); Prev: 17 (-4); High 17 Low 23

Schedule: 17 (+5); Pace: 31 (LW 36); Remaining Schedule 4 (-1)

Last Week: L 2-1 at New York City, L 1-0 vs New York RB

Next Week: at (19) Minnesota, at (7) Kansas City


22 San Jose (12pts 2-9-6) Score: 2.3543 (+0.4781) Prev: 22 (-); High 17 Low 22

Schedule: 13 (-5); Pace: 24 (LW 22); Remaining Schedule: 5 (+3)

Last Week: D 1-1 at Salt Lake, D 3-3 vs LA Galaxy; Next Week: at (5) Portland


23 Orlando (19pts 6-10-1) Score: 1.9157 (-0.7803) Prev: 21 (-2); High 2 Low 23

Schedule: 11 (-4); Pace: 37 (LW 43); Remaining Schedule: 2 (-1)

Last Week: L 2-0 vs Montreal, L 4-0 at Atlanta; Next Week: at (3) LAFC


PREDICTIONS

Last week the SFPI went 4-6 (40%) to bring the season total to 46-55 (45.54%). As always, the formula is to add 1.75 points to the home team score and if within 1.5 points predict a draw.

LAFC at Houston: LA

Toronto at Minnesota: MINNESOTA

Atlanta at Dallas: DALLAS

Seattle at Colorado: COLORADO

Kansas City at Salt Lake: KANSAS CITY

DC at LA Galaxy: LA

Orlando at LAFC: LA

Atlanta at Philadelphia: ATLANTA

Colorado at Montreal: MONTREAL

Seattle at New England: NEW ENGLAND

Toronto at Kansas City: KANSAS CITY

Minnesota at Houston: HOUSTON

Dallas at Salt Lake: DALLAS

Chicago at Vancouver: VANCOUVER

Columbus at LA Galaxy: LA

San Jose at Portland: PORTLAND

New York RB at New York City: DRAW

Have a safe and happy fourth.