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Portland's win against Colorado was not a pretty win but what made it pretty was the three points they earned. Earning those three points was critical in taking a step towards making the MLS playoffs for the first time. If Portland loses or ties they could have been 3 points from 8th position. The big winners of last weekend were the San Jose Earthquakes and Vancouver Whitecaps as each earned a big road win to boost their playoff hopes.
The playoff race has tightened up considerably and could get even tighter if RSL continues to free fall and Vancouver and San Jose continue to win.
Current Standings
As a reminder here are the current standings:
| # | Club | PTS | GP | PPG | W | L | T | GF | GA | GD | HG | HGD | RG | RGD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Sounders FC | 50 | 28 | 1.79 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 26 | 17 | 12 | -7 |
| 2 | Real Salt Lake | 48 | 30 | 1.6 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 25 | 0 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers | 46 | 29 | 1.59 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 45 | 31 | 14 | 27 | 16 | 18 | -2 |
| 4 | LA Galaxy | 45 | 29 | 1.55 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 46 | 36 | 10 | 26 | 18 | 20 | -8 |
| 5 | Colorado Rapids | 45 | 30 | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 37 | 31 | 6 | 22 | 9 | 15 | -3 |
| 6 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 41 | 29 | 1.41 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 42 | 38 | 4 | 27 | 11 | 15 | -7 |
| 7 | San Jose Earthquakes | 41 | 30 | 1.37 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 20 | 8 | 11 | -18 |
| 8 | FC Dallas | 40 | 29 | 1.38 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 23 | 8 | 17 | -10 |
| 9 | Chivas USA | 26 | 30 | 0.87 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 17 | -6 | 12 | -19 |
Remaining Schedule
The majority of teams have 5 games remaining, the Seattle Sounders have 6 and three teams have only 4 remaining (Real Salt Lake and Colorado).
| Colorado | Vancouver | Dallas | LAG | Portland | Seattle | San Jose | RSL |
| Seattle | RSL | Columbus | at Portland | LAG | New York | at Vancouver | |
| At San Jose | Portland | at RSL | Chivas | at Vancouver | at Colorado | at Chivas | FC Dallas |
| Vancouver | at Seattle | Chicago | Montreal | Seattle | Vancouver | Colorado | at Portland |
| at Vancouver | at Colorado | Seattle | San Jose | RSL | Portland | at LAG | Chivas |
| Colorado | at San Jose | at Seattle | at Chivas | at FC Dallas | FC Dallas | ||
| LAG |
Actual/Predicted Results
I updated the predicted points to reflect the current remaining schedule and I also included the point differential in the actual result column.
FC Dallas
| Dallas | Predicted result | Actual Result |
| at Colorado | loss | loss |
| at New York | loss | Loss |
| Columbus | win | |
| at RSL | loss | |
| Chicago | win | |
| Seattle | tie | |
| at San Jose | loss | |
| 7 Points | 0 |
San Jose
| San Jose | Predicted result | Actual Result |
| Vancouver | tie | tie |
| at RSL | loss | Win |
| at Chivas | win | |
| Colorado | win | |
| at LAG | loss | |
| FC Dallas | loss | |
| 6 points | 3 |
Vancouver Whitecaps
| Vancouver | Predicted result | Actual Result |
| at San Jose | tie | tie |
| at montreal | loss | Win |
| RSL | tie | |
| Portland | tie | |
| at Seattle | loss | |
| at Colorado | loss | |
| Colorado | win | |
| 5 points | 3 |
| Colorado | Predicted result | Actual Result |
| FC Dallas | Win | Win |
| at Portland | loss | Loss |
| Seattle | tie | |
| At San Jose | loss | |
| Vancouver | Win | |
| at Vancouver | loss | |
| 4 points | 0 |
LAG
| LAG | Predicted result | Actual Result |
| At DC united | Win | Tie |
| Seattle | Tie | tie |
| at Portland | Loss | |
| Chivas | Win | |
| Montreal | Win | |
| San Jose | Win | |
| at Seattle | loss | |
| 9 points | -2 |
Portland
| Portland | Predicted result | Actual Result |
| At Chivas | Win | tie |
| Colorado | Win | win |
| LAG | Win | |
| at Vancouver | tie | |
| Seattle | tie | |
| RSL | tie | |
| at Chivas | Win | |
| 9 points | -2 |
RSL
| RSL | Predicted result | Actual Result |
| at Seattle | tie | Loss |
| San Jose | win | Loss |
| at Vancouver | tie | |
| FC Dallas | win | |
| at Portland | tie | |
| Chivas | win | |
| 8 points | -5 |
Seattle
| Seattle | Predicted result | Actual Result |
| RSL | tie | Win |
| at LAG | tie | tie |
| New York | Win | |
| at Colorado | tie | |
| Vancouver | win | |
| Portland | tie | |
| at FC Dallas | loss | |
| LAG | tie | |
| 9 points | 2 |
Max Points
Here are the max points the teams can earn if they win all of their remaining games.
| Team | Points | games | games left | max points |
| Seattle | 50 | 28 | 6 | 68 |
| RSL | 48 | 30 | 4 | 60 |
| Portland | 46 | 29 | 5 | 61 |
| Colorado Rapids | 45 | 30 | 4 | 57 |
| LA Galaxy | 45 | 29 | 5 | 60 |
| Vancouver | 41 | 29 | 5 | 56 |
| San Jose | 41 | 30 | 4 | 53 |
| FC Dallas | 40 | 29 | 5 | 55 |
| Chivas | 26 | 30 | 4 | 38 |
Predicted Playoff Position
| Team | Predicted points | Predicted total | Playoff seed |
| Seattle | 9 | 59 | 1 |
| RSL | 8 | 56 | 2 |
| Portland | 9 | 55 | 3 |
| Colorado Rapids | 4 | 49 | 5 |
| LA Galaxy | 9 | 54 | 4 |
| Vancouver | 8 | 49 | 6 |
| San Jose | 6 | 47 | 7 |
| FC Dallas | 7 | 47 | 8 |
Looks like Vancouver just misses out on the playoffs because of the total wins tiebreaker. I would also venture to guess that a team from the East will win the SS. As for Portland's chance I think they have a chance at earning the #2 seed if they earn a win against RSL or one of the Cascadia Cup matches. Either is a possibility but if RSL continues to free fall we could knock them down a few rungs with a win.
Portland just needs 4 more points to ensure they make the playoffs. If they earn more than 4 points it will move them up the standings and into a better playoff position.